2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1160020575798124544



Shear in the Caribbean was actually below average in July according to this, unlike what Klotzbach said.

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1160020575798124544
Shear in the Caribbean was actually below average in July according to this, unlike what Klotzbach said.

Agreed, it has been below average since July:



The main inhibiting factor has been instability, which is performing well under normal throughout the Atlantic:

[cycloneye]

Let's see what happens in reallity.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1160159202607865857

[cycloneye]

The true words from a veteran.

 https://twitter.com/canedancerlix/status/1160189283770257408

[AutoPenalti]

Forecaster Avila says “ding ding ding” on the 20th.

[cycloneye]

Mixed results from 1999 and 2015.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1160192547479683072




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1160192724676427781

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1160226389590777856




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1160231639647211520

[AutoPenalti]

So how many times is he going to play the EPS with its dry air bias?

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my thinking, the CCKW might get the ball rolling and once it leaves the MJO comes and things really pick up the last 5 days of the month all the way into mid October so it could be a rough ride after August 25th

[AtlanticWind]

With the lower shear in the tropical Atlantic , I am expecting things to really heat up (unfortunately) in about 9 to 15 days.

[cycloneye]

Here is the wave that one member (USTropics) pinpoints as to watch down the road.We shall see.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1160316393792913408

[USTropics]

Don't expect any development until August 22/23 at the earliest, as the wave axis exits the WCARIB into the GOM. A very stable MDR will likely strip this wave of convection, much like we saw with previous waves/invests. A weak CCKW passage and the MJO pulse could then jump start the western axis of the wave in the BOC/WGOM. A long time to watch and see how the models react, the GFS has consistently shown an EPAC system impacting Baja California/Mexico that could disrupt vorticity as well (but has trended weaker the past 4 runs). The shear axis in the GOM will also be key.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1160316393792913408

This is the big difference between 2019 and canceled seasons mentioned (especially 2013). Yes, there is the dry air for now, but the high shear a la 2013 is completely missing, and isn't significantly above average even w/ unfavorable subseasonal forcing

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1160316393792913408

This is the big difference between 2019 and canceled seasons mentioned (especially 2013). Yes, there is the dry air for now, but the high shear a la 2013 is completely missing, and isn't significantly above average even w/ unfavorable subseasonal forcing

Yeah but the thermo has to improve before anything forms.

[Nimbus]

So quiet in the Atlantic now, looking at the water vapor loop you might think August would not see a hurricane. NHC raised the storm count probability so I guess it will be a busy late season. October is one of the worst months for Florida, even though its usually season over in Texas by then.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1160316393792913408

This is the big difference between 2019 and canceled seasons mentioned (especially 2013). Yes, there is the dry air for now, but the high shear a la 2013 is completely missing, and isn't significantly above average even w/ unfavorable subseasonal forcing

Yeah but the thermo has to improve before anything forms.

It will, going into peak w/ less unfavorable subseasonal forcing argues for at least some improvement in thermo. In 2013, if wasn't the dry air, it got sheared apart. As long as thermo improves, an inactive season is quite unlikely

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1160341557876318209

[SFLcane]

More like it but didn’t he say a few days ago the Atlantic was shut down per ecmwf

 https://twitter.com/mpalmertwc/status/1160351478202216449

[TheStormExpert]

Third week of August, no fourth week. Before you know it will be September and we will have yet to see an uptick in activity that several are hoping for.