Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[zal0phus]

One bad model run probably doesn't equate to it not developing. Remember how the models have been seesawing with this system. I know this season has been a letdown but patience is warranted for at least a while longer.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Its over

We're so back

Its Really over

The tropics really are like this in summer

[mantis83]

I thought for sure we would have got Francine with this one. Still can’t believe we have not had a named storm since Ernesto. And that already feels like a century ago. Since this season looks to definitely be a bust. I wonder if 2025 will make up for it.

And just 1 since Debby which was 40 days ago. It is amazing given what was forecasted.

They definitely missed it. But 2025 may be the year now instead of this one.

or, this may be the start of a multi year quiet period, who knows.........

[cajungal]

And just 1 since Debby which was 40 days ago. It is amazing given what was forecasted.

They definitely missed it. But 2025 may be the year now instead of this one.

or, this may be the start of a multi year quiet period, who knows.........

Possible. They can’t always be busy. Boring for storm trackers. But good for property owners

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS showing development might be a WGOM system or CA crasher this run.

[ouragans]

Boring, that's it!

Can anyone explain me what happened for that wave not to develop? It's not shear, it's not SAL, it's not SST...

[Kazmit]

GFS closes it off once again near Belize. Maybe a Bay of Campeche hurricane on this run?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, I didn't expect the models to pretty much turn so bearish on this overnight, although don't want to call this wave dead, as I think it can still develop down the road, even if it's just going into Mexico. The NHC is probably shaking their heads saying, "how did we blow this so badly?" And no this isn't a season cancel post, even if this wave doesn't develop, and we don't get any storms the next 10 days, I still think we can still expect 3 to 4 more storms the 2nd half of September. As far as October and early November goes? it's hard to say, as it depends on the atlantic/carib/gulf conditions.

We will see if GFS and EURO start seeing some more storms develop soon by the middle of the month. Love seeing all of the model posts, so keep it up guys.

[Stratton23]

The CMC/ 12z GFS runs still develop this, but both get buried into mexico, still worth watching

[Pelicane]

I recall with Harvey that models were also aggressive with it as it was entering the Carribean before it decoupled. Then when it got into the western Caribbean the models perked up again and the rest is history. Idalia, if remember correctly, also had a period where models were aggressive with it, dropped it completely for a period of time, then came back to it.

Obviously, Harvey had already formed, and Idalia came from a stronger wave from the Pacific, but if conditions are favorable, I wouldn't be shocked if the models perked up again once it gets into the same areas. Hoping that's not the case, enjoying this period of inactivity!

[Teban54]

GFS seems to be overdoing the trough on earlier runs, and started correcting with this run. This is probably a key reason why this run doesn't lift the system north (at least not before it gets to the BoC).

I'm not saying GFS's earlier solutions with the trough will absolutely be wrong, but this is common GFS bias and I'd bet on them being wrong more likely than not.

(Also obligatory reminder that models showing something in the BoC crashing into Mexico at this lead time doesn't necessarily mean it will happen: Beryl is one such example.)

[TomballEd]

A couple of model cycles that threatened the US Gulf Coast, but looking at satellite, there is little chance this develops before the Caribbean, and will move fairly quickly W, and if it does develop, it probably doesn't feel the trough and stays at low latitude, and doesn't have that much time to strengthen before Central America or the Yucatan.

Nothing carved in stone, but ground truth, it isn't developing anytime soon, and what models had been showing about late developers, probably not a direct US threat. Can't rule out Northern Mexico, even the TX border. I wouldn't have lowered it from 50% to 40% when NHC did, but 40% seems about right for now. Maybe even a smidge generous.

I mention at a week plus away, this could change? I throw these in because when I post that it probably isn't a US threat anymore, someone will mention the Korean or Albanian model. Probably doesn't mean it won't happen. I doubt Albania has a model, but who knows?

[Stratton23]

I think the GFS is overdoing ridging to much and lifts the trough out too fast, im not sold on this just getting buried into mexico just yet, , not saying they wont be correct here, but im still not sold on a track that gets buried in CA, the GFS has a progressive bias so their is a chance its lifting the trough out too fast

[TomballEd]

I think the GFS is overdoing ridging to much and lifts the trough out too fast, im not sold on this just getting buried into mexico just yet, , not saying they wont be correct here, but im still not sold on a track that gets buried in CA, the GFS has a progressive bias so their is a chance its lifting the trough out too fast

Time to post another GFS CONUS 500 mb trend map. The GFS isn't very stable on the forecast 500 mb pattern. 500 mb pattern doesn't matter much if the system is very weak and very low latitude. 500 mb pattern is everything if this can become a TC by about Jamaica.

[Teban54]

So after GFS has the system landfall in BoC, it then (tries to) develops two simultaneous storms on opposite ends of Mexico

[Stratton23]

Wonky GFS run, goes into mexico, then comes back out over water, reforms into a TS and lifts north toward texas

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the Gulf Coast got extremely lucky with this one. If it developed in the Caribbean, it would have felt the weakness and bombed out in the Gulf.

[cajungal]

Looks like the Gulf Coast got extremely lucky with this one. If it developed in the Caribbean, it would have felt the weakness and bombed out in the Gulf.

Looks better for now. But still can’t completely write it off for gulf coast just yet.

[Stratton23]

Ivanhater the gulf coast is still not in the clear yet

[cycloneye]

Cut and paste.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed little in
organization since yesterday. The disturbance is expected to move
westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then cross the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development while the system
moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea during the middle
and latter parts of the week, and a tropical depression could form
during that time. Regardless of development, this system could
result in some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.