ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Macrocane]

One big monster that I saw in person was Hugo (cat 3 here) in 1989 a el Nino year with only 11 named storms.To me it doesnt matter how many form but where the ones that form will go.

Actually 1989 was a la Niña year, it had only 11 storms cause it was during the negative phase of the multidecadal oscillation.

1989: -1.7,-1.5,-1.1,-0.8,-0.6,-0.4,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.2,-0.1

But Alicia and Anrew were during el Nino so, you're right it it doesnt matter how many form but where the ones that form will go.

[somethingfunny]

One big monster that I saw in person was Hugo (cat 3 here) in 1989 a el Nino year with only 11 named storms.To me it doesnt matter how many form but where the ones that form will go.

Actually 1989 was a la Niña year, it had only 11 storms cause it was during the negative phase of the multidecadal oscillation.

1989: -1.7,-1.5,-1.1,-0.8,-0.6,-0.4,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.2,-0.1

But Alicia and Anrew were during el Nino so, you're right it it doesnt matter how many form but where the ones that form will go.

I was about to say that - 1989 was one of the busiest years between 1969 and 1995.

In the other thread on El Nino I mentioned that El Nino years tend to bring us hot summers in North Texas - but the years I'm thinking of (1980, 1998, 2006) really don't fall into the pattern at all so I'm not sure what I was thinking. Only 2006 was a bonafide Nino, and a weak one at that. I remember 2004 in particular being a mild summer.

[cycloneye]

SOI continues to go up

As of the 30th of May,the SOI continues to go up for the 8th consecutive day,now at -7.4 after reaching -11.3 on the 23rd.If this upward trend continues,it would mean a delay on warm ENSO appearing.Lets continue to watch this.

2009032820090426 10.3
2009032920090427 9.3
2009033020090428 9
2009033120090429 8.8
2009040120090430 8.6
2009040220090501 7.1
2009040320090502 7.3
2009040420090503 7.5
2009040520090504 7.6
2009040620090505 7
2009040720090506 5.6
2009040820090507 4.2
2009040920090508 2.7
2009041020090509 .5
2009041120090510 -.2
2009041220090511 -.8
2009041320090512 -2.2
2009041420090513 -2.8
2009041520090514 -2.6
2009041620090515 -2.4
2009041720090516 -4.7
2009041820090517 -6.8
2009041920090518 -7.5
2009042020090519 -7.2
2009042120090520 -7.9
2009042220090521 -8.5
2009042320090522 -10.6
2009042420090523 -11.3
2009042520090524 -11
2009042620090525 -10.8
2009042720090526 -10.6
2009042820090527 -9.6
2009042920090528 -8.6
2009043020090529 -8.4
2009050120090530 -7.4

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest anomalies data in the Pacific.It shows some small blue pockets (Especially at el nino 3-4 area west of 150w) along the equator line embedded with yellow.If El Nino is going to form,its not doing it in a hurry.



http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[cycloneye]

Australians latest update (June 3rd ) of ENSO

Summary: Pacific trending towards El Niño

The recent evolution of climate patterns across the equatorial Pacific is consistent with the early stages of a developing El Niño. Moreover, during the past few months computer forecasts have increasingly shown El Niño as a distinct possibility for 2009. The odds of an El Niño are now thought to be above 50%, which is more than double the normal risk of an event. However, it is still possible that the recent trends may stall without El Niño thresholds being reached.

Since the start of April, surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have risen by about 0.8°C and now stand at around 0.5°C above average (the El Niño threshold is 0.8°C above average). In addition, there has been a marked warming below the surface and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to around −7. Also, the Trade Winds were weaker than normal over much of the tropical Pacific from late April to late May. However, patterns of Pacific cloud haven't as yet shown any clear trends towards El Niño: this indicates that the ocean-atmosphere coupling which amplifies and maintains El Niño isn't established.

El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. Another adverse sign for southeastern Australian rainfall is the recent trend to positive values in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI).

Details

The equatorial Pacific sea surface warmed significantly through May. This recent increase is a continuation of a warming trend that has been observed since February 2009. Weak warm SST anomalies are now evident across most of the equatorial Pacific. The monthly indices for May are +0.6°C, +0.4°C and +0.4°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. When compared to April values, the SST has warmed in each region by approximately 0.3°C.

In terms of weekly data, the most recent NINO indices are +0.6°C, +0.4°C and +0.5°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. Over the past two weeks NINO3.4 and NINO4 warmed slightly, by 0.1°C and 0.2°C respectively, while NINO3 remained similar in magnitude. The 7-day SST anomaly map shows the persistence and a further development of weak positive anomalies across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. On a weekly scale, weak positive anomalies are evident across most of the tropical Pacific. An animation of recent SST changes is available.

The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific has also continued to warm slowly through May. All of the anomalously cool sub-surface water that featured between September 2008 and March 2009 during a resurgence of La Niña has been replaced by generally anomalously warm water. A recent map for the 5 days ending 1 June shows warm sub-surface anomalies above +1.0°C evident across most of the equatorial Pacific on a weekly scale. An animation of recent sub-surface changes is available.

Trade winds weakened across the Pacific through April and May, following a westerly wind burst in the western Pacific in early April. However, recently, on a weekly scale Trade flow has strengthened slightly across the central equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly wind anomalies are shown in the TAO/TRITON map (small image above) for the five days ending 1 June.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell sharply through the first three weeks of May, reaching an approximate 30 day value of −11 on the 23 May. Although the SOI has increased slightly in the last week it still remains negative. The monthly value of the SOI for May is −5, while the monthly value for April was +9. (SOI graph, SOI table).

Cloudiness near the date-line over the central to western Pacific is another important indicator of warm/cool ENSO conditions, as it normally increases/decreases (negative OLR/positive OLR anomalies) during these episodes. Cloudiness near the dateline has recently increased and is currently near normal. Cloudiness is yet to show a clear trend towards El Niño conditions.

All international dynamic computer models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology predict further warming of the Pacific Ocean sea surface. Five of six models that have been initialised recently predict warming that is strong enough to see El Niño conditions established by the southern spring, and by mid-winter in four models. As models have been initialised from a period that is close to the end of the ¨predictability barrier" in ENSO conditions, combined with the general agreement between models of a warming of the tropical sea surface, the probability of the development of an El Niño event in 2009 is now much higher than one month ago and it is significantly higher than the climatological probability of about 20-25%. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model, run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, show a steady warming with El Niño conditions developing by mid-winter. Pacific conditions and model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any further indications of an event.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Note=When you see at the update the words mid-winter that is for Australia and the Southern Hemisphere,in other words by mid-summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center June 4th update

Synopsis: Conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.

ENSO-neutral conditions persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May 2009. However, sea surface temperatures (SST) increased for the fifth consecutive month, with above-average temperatures extending across the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of May (Fig. 1). Accordingly, the latest weekly SST indices ranged between +0.4o to +0.5°C in all four Niño regions (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also continued to increase in response to a large area of above-average temperatures (+2° to +4°C) near thermocline depth (Fig. 4). These surface and subsurface oceanic anomalies typically precede the development of El Niño.

From early 2007 through April 2009, enhanced low-level easterly winds persisted near the Date Line, interrupted only briefly by Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity. However, during May 2009, both the lower-level equatorial winds were near-average in that region despite the absence of the MJO. Also, suppressed convection expanded westward along the equator from the Date Line to Indonesia. The recent oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, but also reflect the evolution towards a potential El Niño.

There continues to be considerable spread in the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5). All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009. However, most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño during June - August 2009. Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts indicate that conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[OURAGAN]

SST 1997 June anomaly /June 2009, if we get el nino it will be very week:

Take a look and compare the difference between June 1997 and June 2009 on theses GIF below:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... nomaly.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2009.gif

[tolakram]

SST 1997 June anomaly /June 2009, if we get el nino it will be very week:

Take a look and compare the difference between June 1997 and June 2009 on theses GIF below:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... nomaly.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2009.gif

Posting pictures as viewable for easier comparison.

June 97

June 09

[cycloneye]

The SOI tanking has stopped in the past few days after reaching -11.3 the 23rd of May.As of June 6 the SOI data is at -6.8.

2009032820090426 10.3
2009032920090427 9.3
2009033020090428 9
2009033120090429 8.8
2009040120090430 8.6
2009040220090501 7.1
2009040320090502 7.3
2009040420090503 7.5
2009040520090504 7.6
2009040620090505 7
2009040720090506 5.6
2009040820090507 4.2
2009040920090508 2.7
2009041020090509 .5
2009041120090510 -.2
2009041220090511 -.8
2009041320090512 -2.2
2009041420090513 -2.8
2009041520090514 -2.6
2009041620090515 -2.4
2009041720090516 -4.7
2009041820090517 -6.8
2009041920090518 -7.5
2009042020090519 -7.2
2009042120090520 -7.9
2009042220090521 -8.5
2009042320090522 -10.6
2009042420090523 -11.3
2009042520090524 -11
2009042620090525 -10.8
2009042720090526 -10.6
2009042820090527 -9.6
2009042920090528 -8.6
2009043020090529 -8.4
2009050120090530 -7.4
2009050220090531 -7.4
2009050320090601 -7.3
2009050420090602 -8
2009050520090603 -7.8
2009050620090604 -8.6
2009050720090605 -7.6
2009050820090606 -6.8

[hurricanetrack]

Remember when it went to like -63 at one point in 2006 I think it was? Until I see anything like that, I am not concerned that there is a significant El Nino coming on.

[cycloneye]

This weeks update of the anomalies shows that El Nino is still sleeping. The area of el nino 3-4 is the most important one to look for and right now is still below +0.5,the threshold number for 3 concecutive months.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... discussion

[Lurker]

Is the more likely scenario a weak El Nino event during peak season now?

This weeks update of the anomalies shows that El Nino is still sleeping. The area of el nino 3-4 is the most important one to look for and right now is still below +0.5,the threshold number for 3 concecutive months.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... discussion

[cycloneye]

Is the more likely scenario a weak El Nino event during peak season now?

That is the most likely scenario,but things change in the atmosphere and in the oceans constantly and we can see from a moderate El Nino to continuing neutral conditions.So right now I can tell you is a wait and see period.What I am 100% confident is that a strong el nino wont be in the cards during the 2009 Atlantic season.

[cycloneye]

This TAO graphic updates every day.No El Nino yet.



http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/

[KWT]

Yep we are just below El Nino state at the moment, still I think it won't be long before we actually reach El Nino status. Atmosphere seems to be responding reagrdless though and it seems to be in an El nino type mould right now.

[OURAGAN]

SOI is going up = -5
2009050920090607 -5

[cycloneye]

Another day lost for El Nino to show up.As long we dont see the SOI (Southern Occillation Index) tank to below -15,el Nino will not wake up.



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

[HURRICANELONNY]

-36.2 Today. Looks like El Nino is on the way.

[cycloneye]

-36.2 Today. Looks like El Nino is on the way.

Where did you got that number?

The SOI data updates daily at 7 PM EDT.

[RL3AO]

El Nino is a multi-month process. It won't show up in a day.