ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Really Nino 1+2 has cooled a lot.What significance this cooling means for the expectation of El Nino comming in the next few months remains to be seen.

[Yellow Evan]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 0f9a22be15 I don't recall this being posted but interesting article on the warm Nino +1.2ness. Which leads me to another thing. I wonder if this is the atmosphere's way of a return to equilibrium after the trend of west based El Ninos in the past 15 years or so.

[dexterlabio]

I always thought El Ninos begin with the push of warm waters from equatorial WPAC to the east.

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2 is going to see even more cooling in the coming weeks. Might even get to cold neutral pretty quickly as the winds there switch easterly, evident as to how easily it can flip. And without a coupled deep pool of warmth, it's not sustainable. Nino 3 will also see cooling along with it. But actually what is going to occur in the central Pacific may actually be a push for a Nino as trades turn off and perhaps a push for a deep warm pool with west winds from 120W to the dateline.

[Alyono]

I always thought El Ninos begin with the push of warm waters from equatorial WPAC to the east.

The initial ideas of el niño formation were east to west events

[Kingarabian]

I think the odds of an El nino are about to increase greatly. Per the EPS, the SOI should flip negative soon. The EPS isportraying higher pressures over Darwin, Australia and lower pressures over Tahiti and eastward, EPS showing this all the way through the end of May.

EPS:


A negative SOI, a strong WWB that is forecast to sweep through the central pacific, and a strong PDO coupling together may be enough to push us into an El-Nino.

[euro6208]

[Hurricaneman]

This could be important as it could lead to a more substantial hurricane season than previously thought and if this happens the important area may be the EPAC MDR as if that area has less than normal activity the Atlantic will be busy so it's something to watch

[Hammy]

I know it's extremely early to ask, but what sort of winter would a Modoki bring to northern Georgia?

[Yellow Evan]

This could be important as it could lead to a more substantial hurricane season than previously thought and if this happens the important area may be the EPAC MDR as if that area has less than normal activity the Atlantic will be busy so it's something to watch

For what its worth, the overall SST on that run appears quite similar to 2015 and the EPAC EDR was not the core area of that year's record breaking activity.

[GeneratorPower]

I know it's extremely early to ask, but what sort of winter would a Modoki bring to northern Georgia?

This is a pretty good article. If you read it, you will find some maps showing the impact on different parts of the world.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... _s.html.en

[Ntxw]

I know it's extremely early to ask, but what sort of winter would a Modoki bring to northern Georgia?

Generality, weak to moderate west based (modoki) winter El Nino's are usually the best ENSO phase for the southern tier of the US if you want to see an active cold season (snow and ice). Of all the ENSO phases this is usually the gulf coast region's best bet. Some examples would be 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2009-2010, 2014-2015

[cycloneye]

CPC monthly update.50% chance of El Nino by late Summer and fall.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 April 2017
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
 
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niño development by late summer and fall.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued during March, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were near zero in the Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions, and +0.8 and +0.9°C farther east in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly, averaged across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 3], decreased to near zero during March, a reflection of above-average temperatures at depth in the east offset by below-average temperatures in the central Pacific [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over the Maritime Continent [Fig. 5]. The low-level easterly winds were enhanced over the central and western tropical Pacific, and weaker than average over the eastern Pacific. Also, upper-level westerly winds were anomalously easterly over the western and far eastern Pacific, while the Southern Oscillation Index was near average. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral (3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) through the late Northern Hemisphere spring (April-June; Fig. 6). However, at least one-half of the dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Niño as soon as the April-June season. Because of typically lower skill in forecasts made at this time of the year, and the lingering La Niña-like tropical convection and wind patterns over the western half of the Pacific basin, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during April-June with a 60-65% chance. Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Niño toward the second half of 2017 (~50% chance from approximately August-December). In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the late Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niño development by late summer and fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Such a large cooling in the indian ocean, whats the reason for it?

Im good with a TRUE modiki nino, just keep 1-2 cool!

[Kingarabian]

-34 on the SOI today. Euro continues to show that the SOI will be negative well into May.

[weathaguyry]

-34 on the SOI today. Euro continues to show that the SOI will be negative well into May.

We shall see if this continues, because the SOI has been very neutral, and this may just be an anomaly, and if an El-Nino is truly on the way, it would take some time to form due to that cold pocket around 160W in the sub-surface, and the water overall not impressively warm around 180.

[cycloneye]

These tweets are the key thing to watch.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/852894742614614016

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/850764516002496513

As always the NCEP model not handling the MJO too well.

[Ntxw]

I still don't see yet any signature WWBs. There are anomalous weakened trades but there are not strong west winds that you would expect to kick off an El Nino. Any Nino that starts at this point will be in the fall and weak at that point unless some astonishing warming took place. A 1982, 1997, 2015 is basically off the table (the odds of that were very low anyway from the start). 2006, 2002, and 2009 possible but we need to start seeing WWBs through May for the anomalies to show up in June and July.

[Ntxw]

Just some subsurface looks to compare