Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[GeneratorPower]

Pertinent part of the 2:05 TWD...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUDS ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIK-SCAT DATA HELP TO CONFIRM THIS
POSITION. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS AT A FAIRLY LOW LATITUDE AND OF LOW
AMPLITUDE IT CONSISTS OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[HURAKAN]

[canegrl04]

Here we go.Maybe we'll see Cristobal form from this

[boca]

If thats organized we have a long way to go. That looks like white paint thrown on a blue wall from a paint brush,almost like foe painting.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 092024
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 PM AST WED JUL 9 2008
LATEST MODELGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THEISLANDS NEXT TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKER.
Maybe our next guest, let's see if something happens from this...

[GeneratorPower]

Boca, the problem is that to most of us, when it looks good it's really not a threat, and when it looks benign, it's got potential.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 100941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU JUL 10 2008


LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT TUESDAY...PRODUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING WELL AHEAD...THE MODELGUIDANCES ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY JULY 20-21. APPARENTLY THE TROPIC WILL CONTINUE VERY ACTIVE. STAY TUNED.

[HURAKAN]

Very interesting wave a day from the coast.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS SEEN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND THE ITCZ. LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO
SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 56W ON THE
06Z SFC MAP IS RELOCATED ALONG 60W BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS
FROM 12Z ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND VIS SATELLITE PHOTOS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THOSE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. AT 8AM
EDT TRINIDAD REPORTED A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 1.59 INCHES IN 24
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THIS SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE FROM
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ABC ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N24W 8N32W 5N40W 8N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND
23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 11N22W...AND NEAR 5N39W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SENEGAL AND
GUINEA BISSAU MOVING WWD.
Gustywind the nice gusty wind from Guadeloupe ...

[HURAKAN]

[ekal]

Sandy, do you think this is the wave that the GFS and Euro are developing next week?

[HURAKAN]

Sandy, do you think this is the wave that the GFS and Euro are developing next week?

It's possible. But just like we did with Bertha and many other healthy-looking waves, we must wait to see how it handles the transition from land to water.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting to see the anomaly over the North Atlantic. We already knew that the SST were above normal in the west coast of Africa.

[KWT]

Yep nearly average-above across the whole basin, argues for an above average season, esp ACE wise if the Cape Verde season really gets its act on this season.

Nice wave coming off Africa, that mnay well be the one the models are developing.

[abajan]

Yep nearly average-above across the whole basin, argues for an above average season, esp ACE wise if the Cape Verde season really gets its act on this season...

Yes but doesn't that map also show an El Nino situation developing?

[cycloneye]

Yep nearly average-above across the whole basin, argues for an above average season, esp ACE wise if the Cape Verde season really gets its act on this season...

Yes but doesn't that map also show an El Nino situation developing?

abajan,go here for information about el nino,neutral,la nina update:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=560

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes but doesn't that map also show an El Nino situation developing?

Personally, I now believe a weak El Nino event will likely emerge during fall/winter, but its effects on the peak of the season should be minimal.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 13N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. INVERTED-V PATTERN SEEN EARLIER ON VIS SAT IMAGERY IS
ALSO NOTED IN IR IMAGERY AS WELL. POCKETS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ.
LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SUPPORT THE POSITION OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 14N IS MOVING WEST AT
15 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS MOVED
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUES
OVER PORTIONS OF TRINIDAD AND GRENADA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 63W AND
70W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N22W 8N30W 5N42W 8N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND
30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W
AND NEAR 7N51W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA BISSAU.
THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 110925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2008



NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY AROUND 40W AT
09Z. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOCAL ISLAND
EFFECTS...EXPECT FOR LINES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN CORNERS OF THE USVI...TO LATER AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO MAINLY DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO MAINLY AFFECT
THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE A FEW PLACES MAY SUFFER
FROM MINOR FLOODING ACROSS ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES AND POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ATTENTION...THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE
MADE USING THE OOZ MODEL GUIDANCE.

THIS WAVE STILL FOUR TO FIVE DAYS AWAY AND CHANGES WILL BE MADE
ACCORDINGLY AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE COME IN OVER THE WEEKEND...STAY TUNED.