Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[gatorcane]

JMA MUCH weaker this run. The GFS-OP is the only model that shows this developing now. Could be a big bust in the making for the GFS-op!

[WeatherEmperor]

EURO just broke the ankles of the GFS with its cross over. that will about do it for me.

X-TD4 looks like it has a pulse as it interacts with a ULL to the NE...

Word has it the ECMWF sent a few representatives to your residence to discuss any "lack of faith" issues you may have had with the Euro model. Looks like you guys worked it out and you are all in on the Euro


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[ScottNAtlanta]

The only thing about the GFS that gives me pause is that it has been consistently showing something. Usually phantom storms are there then disappear. It has consistently shown "something" throughout the last several days. Also, the GFS does a little better than the Euro on MDR genesis (neither is good though). Just something to think about. Also, pressures have been higher than usual in Columbia so dont count on E Caribbean to be the storm killer it has been in past years (remember Dennis and Emily 2005...both around this time frame too...so it can happen...and of course this is 'Bad Emily' cycle as it makes a run at being retired every other cycle)

[ThetaE]

The difference in initialization between the ECMWF and the GFS is stark. Not sure which is closer (probably the ECMWF), but that's definitely at least part of what's causing the difference in developing this storm.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF -Para for ex TD4 shows this.

[ScottNAtlanta]

12z HWRF -Para for ex TD4 shows this.

http://i.imgur.com/v8r2aY1.png

Again...look at the H indicated over Columbia/Venezuela. That says if something gets past the islands it will be more favorable than past years

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS/HWRF combo has been wrong in the past, I am NOT sold on development until I see either the UKMET or ECM get onboard with development. A strong EPS or ECM-P signal would also convince me.

[chaser1]

Love the GFS which I use for entertainment purposes for anything over 172hrs... If the Euro doesn't pick it up today then I have to throw these phantom GFS runs out the window.JMO

Think it will go west after stall? Or NE escape to ATL?

got to have something before I bet anything on a GFS run that has no other friends and out past 172hr. As Louis has been saying we need to be looking at the current state of the TW. That SAL is right on its butt and it doesn't look too healthy..

I agree with Rock here. Last thing i'm really concerned about is whether or not some zombie apocalypse hurricane that descends over the Bahamas for some long term "all you can eat" conch and palm tree buffet, might ultimately go west putting the 7-mile bridge under water or go north and turn Surf City N.C. into Storm "Surge City". Beyond the curious look at how the GFS might see the broader scale W. Atlantic steering flow at this point and time, what is far more pressing is whether the GFS is simply walking in the CMC model's shoes or if it's insistence of a developing low ultimately results in all other models to show up to the party late. More important than that however is whether threatening conditions might impact those in its path. The most important take away for me though would be the implications of what might be in-store for the heart of the hurricane season to come.

Bottom line is until there's any additional model support i'm less concerned about any significant threat to the Windward Islands by this Friday. My concern would be the tea leaves left in the wake of ANY unanticipated or anomalous tropical depression that the GFS continues to insist will develop in under 96 hours.

[abajan]

The GFS 12Z seems to be stuck on hour 42. MOVE IT! The suspense is awful for me in Barbados.

I just visited Barbados in June, it's a very beautiful island. It was brought up on my trip that the island isn't hit by hurricanes or strong tropical storms very often.

Thanks! Like my compatriot Dougiefresh said, we don't see much activity storm-wise here. The islands northwest of Barbados get hit more often than we do. But every once in a while we do get some real doozies. Just today, there was some discussion on a local Facebook weather group about the Great Hurricane of 1780 and another in 1831, both of which were believed to have been at Category 5 intensity when they struck Barbados. Those sort of storms are extremely rare here, though.

[chaser1]

Here's my "out on a limb" guess what happens: GFS continues to forecast development with only the Para GFS jumping on board at about 60 hours out. Development does not occur per GFS insistance yet the model continues to advertise imminent development. The vigorous wave then approaches the Windward Islands Friday hinting at turning around 850mb. but without closed surface circulation. Following a dumping of over 4" of precip in one or more of the islands, a small well developed depression rapidly forms in the far S.E. Caribbean quickly reaching moderate to strong T.S. intensity before meeting its own demise over southern Hispaniola where additional flooding conditions occur.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a few more CMC ensembles are showing development now:

[storminabox]

The GFS and most of the other models have reached no consesus yet. The GFS has been constantly developing this system into a major hurricane while for the most part, the other models have showed little development. If it was not for the remarkable consistency that the GFS has shown developing this wave over the last couple of days, I would pretty much rule out its development completely.

In my opinion, the most important thing to do in the next few days is to monitor how the wave is organizing and how it is organizing in relation to how the models forecasted it would. Perhaps that will give us a better idea in which model has a better grip on this storm.

[Alyono]

IGNORE THE HWRF PARENT

That model is not designed to be tracking systems outside of its nested domains. Furthermore, the boundary conditions are the GFS boundary conditions. It is bringing a near hurricane into the domain via the eastern boundary. That is more of a GFS forecast than anything

[gatorcane]

The difference in initialization between the ECMWF and the GFS is stark. Not sure which is closer (probably the ECMWF), but that's definitely at least part of what's causing the difference in developing this storm.
http://i67.tinypic.com/23uxxzo.png
http://i68.tinypic.com/2hz2yc3.png

the 12Z GFS Parallel initialization is nearly identical to the GFS Op yet the GFS Parallel doesn't develop it:

[WeatherEmperor]

The 18z GFS starts in about 10 minutes. Anybody wanna guess if it drops development or continues it??


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[Kingarabian]

The 18z GFS starts in about 10 minutes. Anybody wanna guess if it drops development or continues it??


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It's 50 - 50. Maybe it'll join the GFS Parallel at least.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well, I can't model-watch with you all tonight as I have some live fire training to attend, but I'll throw in my guess that the GFS holds serve, perhaps delaying development by 12-24hrs. I will also guess that the GFS-P brings back the weak TS.

[RL3AO]

18z GFS Prediction -

Keeps a strong hurricane - People laugh at and complain about the GFS
Doesn't develop a strong hurricane - People laugh at and complain about the GFS

[Hurricane Andrew]

18z GFS Prediction -

Keeps a strong hurricane - People laugh at and complain about the GFS
Doesn't develop a strong hurricane - People laugh at and complain about the GFS

Wow...the man is a psychic!

[AutoPenalti]

18z GFS Prediction -

Keeps a strong hurricane - People laugh at and complain about the GFS
Doesn't develop a strong hurricane - People laugh at and complain about the GFS

Please help me win the lottery.