2018 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Here comes the famous tagline we've known only too well ... "it's heading towards unfavourable upper-level winds and development is becoming less likely."

I honestly believe we won't end up with even a single depression forming this month in this basin.

Don't expect anything till around august 3 at the earliest. I'm more confident than ever on a surge in activity thereafter.

[cycloneye]

GFS is pushing back to early August the development of a very strong hurricane.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS is pushing back to early August the development of a very strong hurricane.

The GFS has been showing these far-out EPAC hurricanes frequently since last year. Until I see it with my own eyes, I won't believe it.

[Ntxw]

With the busier wpac it will probably take a bit, given the MJO phase. Doesn't shear increase in the western part of the basin and cpac when the wpac is active?

[cycloneye]

12z EC is stronger with the medium range system. Down to 971 mbs.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro show development by the first week of August. But we're gonna have to wait longer (possibly the 2nd week) if the CFS 200mb wind pattern verifies:

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/neztjGK

looks a decent cane on the plot. Is a ts @144hrs

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro develops the 10/30 system now.

[cycloneye]

And now 06z GFS develops that 10/30.

[cycloneye]

Although the shower activity associated with a weak low pressure
area located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico has
increased some in organization this morning, no significant
development is expected during the next day or two. However,
conditions could become a little more favorable for tropical cyclone
formation by this weekend while the system moves toward the west or
west-northwest away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

@wxtrackercody
The East Pacific has yet to see any tropical cyclones form in July. Despite favorable MJO/CCKW, strong shear and trades are limiting development. Every season going back to 1966 (start of reliable records) has seen at least 1 tropical cyclone. 1 week to go.

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1021549905830182914

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing disorganized
shower activity. No significant development is expected during the
next day or two, but conditions could become a little more favorable
for tropical cyclone formation by this weekend while the system
moves toward the west or west-northwest away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

I'm kind of confused here but maybe some clues...

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021463580955348994




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021484269456248832




 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021740518601117696




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021478191528075266

[Kingarabian]

I'm kind of confused here but maybe some clues...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021463580955348994[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021484269456248832[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021740518601117696[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021478191528075266[tweet]

It's the same as I've been posting and showing in the past couple of pages with the CFS 200mb wind graphics. Westerlies @ 200mb can essentially shut down a basin. It's why the EPAC has been so quiet despite the enhanced convection and impressive disturbances rolling out.

[cycloneye]

Well,at lesat both GFS and ECMWF develop the 10/30 system but only to a moderate Tropical Storm. Will in reallity EPAC have the storm before July goes?

[Yellow Evan]

I'm kind of confused here but maybe some clues...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021463580955348994[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021484269456248832[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1021740518601117696[tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1021478191528075266[tweet]

It's the same as I've been posting and showing in the past couple of pages with the CFS 200mb wind graphics. Westerlies @ 200mb can essentially shut down a basin. It's why the EPAC has been so quiet despite the enhanced convection and impressive disturbances rolling out.

After doing some outside research, more or less this. We have the CCKW support at 200mbar (and actual a robust MJO phase) but westerlies aloft causing problems. Basically what I said on Sunday. What had me confused for a bit was the 850hpa velocity potential forecast linked above.

[Yellow Evan]

Although CCKW could be leaving in theory sooner which on paper would prevent a massive outbtreak, keep in mind there are similar conditions in the WPAC and that's been quite busy this month.

[Yellow Evan]

MJO is currently in the EPAC and also likely to enter the dead circle soon. Not surprising given current ENSO state. Would lead to some activity once the westerlies relax, although I'm not sure on how much.

[cycloneye]

Hey,new from 18z GFS that begins on August 1rst.

[Hurricaneman]

Hey,new from 18z GFS that begins on August 1rst.

The 0zGFS has it but 1 day later than 18z does so it may not be the real deal, let’s wait a few days because the model storm may vanish or could grow stronger