2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SoupBone]

But why? Do they distrust the GFS that much that they're discounting it completely? Doesn't seem to exude a whole lot of confidence when it continues to push this system run after run after run. It's....odd.

Part of the reasoning may be that even the GFS now suggests any possible genesis would likely be after 5 days.

current GFS and CMC are 3 to 4 days. they, of course, interpret everything and make a judgment. They also have access to other model outputs we do not. most notably the florida state model which by all indications is superior to the current model suit.

Thanks, Aric. Good info.

[GCANE]

That ULL I mentioned that would develop in about 200 hrs looks like it may kick in a poleward outflow channel if this spins up in the GOM

[Hammy]

Euro appears to show a piece of energy going up over Central America and into the GoM (while not developing) but someone earlier mentioned it has a bad habit of overdoing the 500MB high pressure, so could this be an early hint that it might start trending towards development over the next several runs? If I remember correctly it had Alberto much further west than what played out as well.

[Kingarabian]

Euro appears to show a piece of energy going up over Central America and into the GoM (while not developing) but someone earlier mentioned it has a bad habit of overdoing the 500MB high pressure, so could this be an early hint that it might start trending towards development over the next several runs? If I remember correctly it had Alberto much further west than what played out as well.

EPS is running. Will give us a hint if the Euro is caving in or not.

[NDG]

Euro appears to show a piece of energy going up over Central America and into the GoM (while not developing) but someone earlier mentioned it has a bad habit of overdoing the 500MB high pressure, so could this be an early hint that it might start trending towards development over the next several runs? If I remember correctly it had Alberto much further west than what played out as well.

EPS is running. Will give us a hint if the Euro is caving in or not.

??
It already ran

[Kingarabian]

Euro appears to show a piece of energy going up over Central America and into the GoM (while not developing) but someone earlier mentioned it has a bad habit of overdoing the 500MB high pressure, so could this be an early hint that it might start trending towards development over the next several runs? If I remember correctly it had Alberto much further west than what played out as well.

EPS is running. Will give us a hint if the Euro is caving in or not.

??
It already ran

The websites I use, weatherbell.com and weathermodels.com take about an hour to complete the EPS run after the OP model run finishes.

edit: EPS through 240 hours, has maybe 3-4 members showing weak western GOM development.

[LarryWx]

The EPS supports the quiet Euro with still very few members getting to below 1004 mb in the N GOM. I count only 2 of 51 during 6/16-9 over water under 1004 mb there that then threaten the NW GOM coast. There's something stronger over land that I'm ignoring. There's also a few active members in the far SW BoC as well as 2 coming off Yucatan later fwiw.

[TheStormExpert]

12z EPS is the least enthusiastic Euro Ensemble support in days!

Btw, does the 12z UKMET still develop anything?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Recent model trends from gfs, icon, and cmc indicate that this future storm is likely to track into the central or western gulf. This seems reasonable considering that the euro, despite not developing this system much, shows markedly increased heights bridging into each other from Florida west into TX. Euro shows a trough then coming into the central gulf. The sum of these steering currents would over time steer the potential cyclone into the central gulf. It is still uncertain as to whether anything develops, but at the very least enhanced moisture or rain would spread into the central gulf coast regardless of development.

[gatorcane]

12z EPS is the least enthusiastic Euro Ensemble support in days!

Btw, does the 12z UKMET still develop anything?

Nope. Going to need the EPAC to slow down before we see something in the Western Caribbean / GOM.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Always betwwen the GFS and the Euro. Do they ever agree

There is a large divergence in model guidance come the middle of
next week. The European model (ecmwf) maintains the persistent Bermuda high. The
GFS, however, has a low pressure system developing near the
Yucatan, and moving north into the central Gulf. This is still
towards the end of the forecast period and this scenario is very
uncertain, and low confidence in what impact, if any, it will have
on South Florida. So, have kept just general showers and
thunderstorms for now.

[stormhunter7]

18z gfs rolling and through 174hrs... bad sign for Texas and La! aka, stall and deepening system in NW GOM

[gatorcane]

The GFS just won’t give up, in fact it looks to be doubling down:

[Steve]

18z gfs rolling and through 174hrs... bad sign for Texas and La! aka, stall and deepening system in NW GOM

It’s still bringing the Yucatan low up faster than the hurricane moving toward the Baja though it’s been closing the gap over time. It sees a stronger reflection on this side which doesn’t seem as likely, but you never know until it happens.

[gatorcane]

956 mb:

[Aric Dunn]

well the 18z GFS os rather interesting..

[Steve]

Looks like around Chambers County at 204 hours. That’s valid for next Sunday at 1am CDT or 8.5 days from 18z/1pm today. Low 960s looks like a strong 2 there.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS showing genesis as soon as Wednesday morning. If this develops and the ECMWF doesn't even pick it up <5 days in advance that's incredibly disappointing (vice-versa if the GFS/CMC system doesn't develop, either).

[Steve]

The CMC support makes me question whether or not the GFS is truly off its rocker. Additionally, its showing genesis as soon as Wednesday morning. If this develops and the ECMWF doesn't even pick it up <5 days in advance that's incredibly disappointing (vice-versa if the GFS/CMC system doesn't develop, either).

Possibly its solutions are gradually shifting to an elongated tropical surge coming up along the upper Mexican and Texas coasts. I’m neutral on a prediction at this point, so I’m watching.

[cycloneye]

NHC doesn't buy the 956 mbs.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan