2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[MetroMike]

18z GFS is totally blind to anything that is supposed to be favorable.
Shows nada pretty much the whole run.

[gatorcane]

What the GFS is showing is a deep trough along the EC and if that comes to fruition anything coming from the east would recurve away from the CONUS. On the flip side, maybe some fall weather heading for the EC!

[gatorcane]

Big trough over the Western Atlantic on the GFS waiting to turn any of these Cape Verde storms away from the CONUS:

[GeneratorPower]

18z GFS is totally blind to anything that is supposed to be favorable.
Shows nada pretty much the whole run.

Or maybe it’s doing its job and telling us that conditions aren’t favorable and don’t expect development.

[MetroMike]

18z GFS is totally blind to anything that is supposed to be favorable.
Shows nada pretty much the whole run.

Or maybe it’s doing its job and telling us that conditions aren’t favorable and don’t expect development.

Suppose to be with the Favorable MJO traversing the basin so they say.
Seems off for the conditions.
But tonights GFS (Wednesday PM) is more realistic imo.

[GeneratorPower]

Big trough over the Western Atlantic on the GFS waiting to turn any of these Cape Verde storms away from the CONUS:

https://i.postimg.cc/kGXrR6m1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-33.png

[ronjon]

Euro ensembles starting to hint at lowering pressures in the western Caribbean in early October. Something to watch over the next several days on future model runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=watl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2019092100&fh=240

[NDG]

Euro ensembles starting to hint at lowering pressures in the western Caribbean in early October. Something to watch over the next several days on future model runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=watl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2019092100&fh=240

Yep, and its long 46 day range forecast shows below average MSLPs hanging around through most of October along with above average rainfall fall across the western Caribbean and GOM..

[Steve]

Euro ensembles starting to hint at lowering pressures in the western Caribbean in early October. Something to watch over the next several days on future model runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=watl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2019092100&fh=240

Yep, and its long 46 day range forecast shows below average MSLPs hanging around through most of October along with above average rainfall fall across the western Caribbean and GOM..

Yeah. Unlike the GFS, CMC and EC build a strong ass ridge across the western Atlantic after Jerry so that in 10 days, CMC has a storm coming back SW in the W Atl where as the EC has something in the SE Gulf. GFs does make sense in that Jerry and the storm immediately behind it would erode the western side of the ridge. But it never handles follow up patterns right. Expect that if a big cold high comes down next weekend or so that you have to look underneath it. That should be the next US threat. I’d place my money in the foreign models being closer to reality.

[Cpv17]

The Euro has a system in the BOC heading north towards Texas from days 7-10.

[MetroMike]

The Euro has a system in the BOC heading north towards Texas from days 7-10.

Another unorthodox track if it sticks, doubt it will.

[WxEp]

18Z GFS has strengthening vorticity in the central/western Caribbean around H216 that moves northwest and then in the extremely long range turns north east and passes over Cuba and just south of Florida as a TS/Cat 1.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The Euro has a system in the BOC heading north towards Texas from days 7-10.

Another unorthodox track if it sticks, doubt it will.

I don’t think that track is unreasonable at all for the first week of October, doesn’t take much of a weakness or too strong of a trough to pull a system north out of there. Actually what I find so unusual is how quiet the BOC has been so far this season.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a large CAG in the superl ong range.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has strengthening vorticity in the central/western Caribbean around H216 that moves northwest and then in the extremely long range turns north east and passes over Cuba and just south of Florida as a TS/Cat 1.

[ronjon]

Surprised nobody posted today's 12z GFS - quite the mega storm in the western caribbean (size wise not intensity).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019092312&fh=300

[Hurricaneman]

Surprised nobody posted today's 12z GFS - quite the mega storm in the western caribbean (size wise not intensity).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019092312&fh=300

If that’s is 100miles farther east this would be another Mitch but thankfully it’s in fantasy range

[jfk08c]

GFS trying it's best to convince us that an extremely active Caribbean October is on the way

[blazess556]

Looks there are some indications for the West Pacific to perk up a bit with a typhoon in the medium-range.

[Astromanía]

What's this?