2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[MarioProtVI]

That's a pretty active look for the MDR in the Atlantic come peak season, if this forecast is to be believed.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1404438488506720256

A bit interesting considering several runs ago it was basically predicting a dry MDR

[CyclonicFury]

94L will probably serve more as a warning sign for the MDR this year, kind of like 2017 with Bret (which came from a similar wave at a similar latitude). Don’t expect Claudette/Danny from this though.

I respectfully disagree. We’ve seen Ana, Bill, and future Claudette (92L) all form in the subtropics vs. the MDR/Caribbean thus far. If anything, this suggests a less active season. Many inactive seasons feature lots of early- and/or preseason storms in the subtropics. If we were seeing tropical storms in the MDR by now, I would be more concerned. But an INVEST designation so far east, at this time of the year, is insufficient cause for alarm, in my view. I can also recall plenty of inactive years that featured at least a few abnormally vigorous, well-organised African easterly waves in June.

The truth is, the vast majority of seasons do not have any systems of note in the MDR this early. In addition, early-season subtropics development is not necessarily an indicator of a quiet season (look at 2020). 92L still has a 70% chance to form in the Gulf of Mexico. Not to mention 94L is not dead yet.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1402336306873704462



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1402336308983480320



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1402336313597169669

[IsabelaWeather]

That's a pretty active look for the MDR in the Atlantic come peak season, if this forecast is to be believed.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1404438488506720256

Are those low riders I see... Would make for a very interesting Hurricane Season down here

Where are you from? I can't see so it's hard to see where you see "interesting" is.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lets just hope Central America gets a break this year. They had a devastating season last year

[St0rmTh0r]

I seen on the news there was a big solar flare this week that could cause communication problems. In 2017 before Irma there was heavy solar activity. Is there a correlation between solar storms and hurricanes?

I highly doubt it. If stronger solar flares are somewhat correlated with stronger hurricanes, then was there heavy solar flare activity before storms like Gilbert, Katrina, Dorian, Ivan, Andrew, or Mitch? I would love to know

January 20th 2005 had an x class solar flare the most powerful one there is. I haven't searched any other storms yet but that's pretty telling.

[Category5Kaiju]

I seen on the news there was a big solar flare this week that could cause communication problems. In 2017 before Irma there was heavy solar activity. Is there a correlation between solar storms and hurricanes?

I highly doubt it. If stronger solar flares are somewhat correlated with stronger hurricanes, then was there heavy solar flare activity before storms like Gilbert, Katrina, Dorian, Ivan, Andrew, or Mitch? I would love to know

January 20th 2005 had an x class solar flare the most powerful one there is. I haven't searched any other storms yet but that's pretty telling.

Ok then what about hyperactive years like 1995, 2004, 2010, or 2020? I am not very sure how exactly strong solar activity would have anything to do with tropical cyclones here on earth. If anything, it should cause all basins to be very hyperactive, but in 2005 the EPAC was quiet, for example. Why would solar flare activity affect the Atlantic and not other basins in other words is the question.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1404538726181752841



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1404538730057191427



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1404538734973001731



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1404538738533933057



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1404538743227359240



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1404538745152589828



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1404538746394091522

[Category5Kaiju]

Well, looks like the Atlantic was listening to all of us mock it for its cool MDR and is trying to show something a *bit* different

Here's a closer look at what is going on with the MDR:

[captainbarbossa19]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_global.png

Well, looks like the Atlantic was listening to all of us mock it for its cool MDR and is trying to show something a *bit* different

Here's a closer look at what is going on with the MDR:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

Here we go again. Cold anomaly pattern reversal possibly starting. Part of me wants a lot of storms, but part of me does not because I know that there is a good chance with a lot of storms people will be placed in danger.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_global.png

Well, looks like the Atlantic was listening to all of us mock it for its cool MDR and is trying to show something a *bit* different

Here's a closer look at what is going on with the MDR:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

Here we go again. Cold anomaly pattern reversal possibly starting. Part of me wants a lot of storms, but part of me does not because I know that there is a good chance with a lot of storms people will be placed in danger.

I mean don't we all? Like I personally feel exactly the same way you do; an active season is fun and thrilling to track and analyze and keeps us wx enthusiasts busy. The ideal active season for us all imho would be a year like 2010, where powerful storms happen but most go harmlessly OTS. But of course, many active seasons are unfortunately not like this, and I do think tracking hurricanes is a double edged sword. Like if a major hurricane were about to hit land, it would be all over the news, social media, etc., and it definitely gives us things to do and keep track of (not to mention the thrill). In that sense it's a fascinating and memorable experience, but then of course you also have to take into consideration the sad truth that people will die and that a certain place will be scarred for months, if not years.

[Shell Mound]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_global.png

Well, looks like the Atlantic was listening to all of us mock it for its cool MDR and is trying to show something a *bit* different

Here's a closer look at what is going on with the MDR:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

The warming has already stopped and cooling has resumed, according to the latest CDAS data. Additionally, the ongoing WWB is expected to be short-lived and migrate westward, so it is related to the CCKW/MJO passage rather than the ASW. So far there are absolutely no indicators of a substantial long-term warmup, and even the ASW will be insufficient to totally negate the -AMM signature and Atlantic Niño. We will need to see significant, sustained, continuous low-level westerlies to ensure a hyperactive Atlantic season that meets CSU’s call for ACE of ≥ 150. At this point ACE of ≤ 130 seems most plausible.

[ElectricStorm]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_global.png

Well, looks like the Atlantic was listening to all of us mock it for its cool MDR and is trying to show something a *bit* different

Here's a closer look at what is going on with the MDR:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

Here we go again. Cold anomaly pattern reversal possibly starting. Part of me wants a lot of storms, but part of me does not because I know that there is a good chance with a lot of storms people will be placed in danger.

I mean don't we all? Like I personally feel exactly the same way you do; an active season is fun and thrilling to track and analyze and keeps us wx enthusiasts busy. The ideal active season for us all imho would be a year like 2010, where powerful storms happen but most go harmlessly OTS. But of course, many active seasons are unfortunately not like this, and I do think tracking hurricanes is a double edged sword. Like if a major hurricane were about to hit land, it would be all over the news, social media, etc., and it definitely gives us things to do and keep track of (not to mention the thrill). In that sense it's a fascinating and memorable experience, but then of course you also have to take into consideration the sad truth that people will die and that a certain place will be scarred for months, if not years.

That's why I prefer years like 2014 when the Pacific is more active than the Atlantic. The Pacific usually produces more storms, and most of the monsters stay OTS. Much more fun to root for those storms to blow up into something big over there...

[jasons2k]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... -us/963897

[JetFuel_SE]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_global.png

Well, looks like the Atlantic was listening to all of us mock it for its cool MDR and is trying to show something a *bit* different

Here's a closer look at what is going on with the MDR:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

The warming has already stopped and cooling has resumed, according to the latest CDAS data. Additionally, the ongoing WWB is expected to be short-lived and migrate westward, so it is related to the CCKW/MJO passage rather than the ASW. So far there are absolutely no indicators of a substantial long-term warmup, and even the ASW will be insufficient to totally negate the -AMM signature and Atlantic Niño. We will need to see significant, sustained, continuous low-level westerlies to ensure a hyperactive Atlantic season that meets CSU’s call for ACE of ≥ 150. At this point ACE of ≤ 130 seems most plausible.

Again, CDAS has a significant cold-bias, especially in the MDR. I don't really get why you continue using it, almost seems like you're purposefully looking for even the slightest sign that the season will be inactive while also blowing those supposedly "unfavorable" signals way out of proportion.

[Ubuntwo]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_global.png

Well, looks like the Atlantic was listening to all of us mock it for its cool MDR and is trying to show something a *bit* different

Here's a closer look at what is going on with the MDR:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

The warming has already stopped and cooling has resumed, according to the latest CDAS data. Additionally, the ongoing WWB is expected to be short-lived and migrate westward, so it is related to the CCKW/MJO passage rather than the ASW. So far there are absolutely no indicators of a substantial long-term warmup, and even the ASW will be insufficient to totally negate the -AMM signature and Atlantic Niño. We will need to see significant, sustained, continuous low-level westerlies to ensure a hyperactive Atlantic season that meets CSU’s call for ACE of ≥ 150. At this point ACE of ≤ 130 seems most plausible.

The MDR is still warming, at least for now.
3 day change in SST:


Really, there's more to activity than a 1C difference in sea surface profile, 2+ months before peak season. For Gulf and Caribbean systems SST is almost never an inhibiting factor. A very active WAM, below avg shear, and favorable velocities through ASO look to have a much more profound impact. We might see not see a hyperactive season per se, but above average looks very likely.

Slightly OT, but every year people look at all the 'struggling' systems and start downcasting hard. Struggling systems are not a sign of inactivity - they can be the exact opposite. If climo for a time/place is 30 kt of shear and intense subsidence, you would not expect storms to form at all. 15 kt of shear would be FAR below average and could even allow a storm to form. It would be struggling, of course, but it wouldn't exist in the first place with average conditions.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_global.png

Well, looks like the Atlantic was listening to all of us mock it for its cool MDR and is trying to show something a *bit* different

Here's a closer look at what is going on with the MDR:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

The warming has already stopped and cooling has resumed, according to the latest CDAS data. Additionally, the ongoing WWB is expected to be short-lived and migrate westward, so it is related to the CCKW/MJO passage rather than the ASW. So far there are absolutely no indicators of a substantial long-term warmup, and even the ASW will be insufficient to totally negate the -AMM signature and Atlantic Niño. We will need to see significant, sustained, continuous low-level westerlies to ensure a hyperactive Atlantic season that meets CSU’s call for ACE of ≥ 150. At this point ACE of ≤ 130 seems most plausible.

The MDR is still warming, at least for now.
3 day change in SST:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/855128039180468226/oisst_diff_3d_tropatl_2021061600.png

Really, there's more to activity than a 1C difference in sea surface profile, 2+ months before peak season. For Gulf and Caribbean systems SST is almost never an inhibiting factor. A very active WAM, below avg shear, and favorable velocities through ASO look to have a much more profound impact. We might see not see a hyperactive season per se, but above average looks very likely.

Slightly OT, but every year people look at all the 'struggling' systems and start downcasting hard. Struggling systems are not a sign of inactivity - they can be the exact opposite. If climo for a time/place is 30 kt of shear and intense subsidence, you would not expect storms to form at all. 15 kt of shear would be FAR below average and could even allow a storm to form. It would be struggling, of course, but it wouldn't exist in the first place with average conditions.

Here’s the way I see it: imagine a professor giving out an exam designed to be very hard and have a class average that is a low D. Many students get Fs. This is like an analogy to the Atlantic basin in June. Very unfavorable, with many storms that fail to form at all. But then you could have several students who do much better than a low D, and gets a high C for instance. Not a great score of course, but compared to the average and the difficulty of the questions on the exam, that is impressive. This is analogous to those Atlantic hurricane seasons that are able to produce named storms in June, despite them struggling since the climo is inherently unfavorable.

[St0rmTh0r]

I highly doubt it. If stronger solar flares are somewhat correlated with stronger hurricanes, then was there heavy solar flare activity before storms like Gilbert, Katrina, Dorian, Ivan, Andrew, or Mitch? I would love to know

January 20th 2005 had an x class solar flare the most powerful one there is. I haven't searched any other storms yet but that's pretty telling.

Ok then what about hyperactive years like 1995, 2004, 2010, or 2020? I am not very sure how exactly strong solar activity would have anything to do with tropical cyclones here on earth. If anything, it should cause all basins to be very hyperactive, but in 2005 the EPAC was quiet, for example. Why would solar flare activity affect the Atlantic and not other basins in other words is the question.

Maybe the sun influences el nino and la nina conditions?

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1406290160761937923

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the latest CFV2's Nino 3.4 region outlook has a firm weak Nina in place by the end of this year