2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS is still another run with strong E US 500 mb ridging late in the run that would open the door especially to Florida to anything that might then exist off the SE US. In fact, this run actually shows 2H and 1TS strike Florida 8/20-1. Bears watching. This would represent a different H5 pattern from the bulk of the summer to date. SFLcane pointed this out yesterday on the GEFS.

[SFLcane]

The 12Z GEFS is still another run with strong E US 500 mb ridging late in the run that would open the door especially to Florida to anything that might then exist off the SE US. In fact, this run actually shows 2H and 1TS strike Florida 8/20-1. Bears watching. This would represent a different H5 pattern from the bulk of the summer to date. SFLcane pointed this out yesterday on the GEFS.

Surely a dangerous pattern for the Conus if there were to be a tc out there.

[LarryWx]

:double:

https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1688971927526772744?s=20

While the GFS has, indeed, generally been very quiet for it so far this month, this Tweet of NO fantasy hurricanes so far this month isn't accurate:

-7/31 12Z run had a H hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z run had a H hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z run had an MDR H 8/18-21

[SFLcane]

[Ianswfl]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/KjXYYxSj/ECM.png

I'm in SWFL. Do you think we have a shot from the east in this pattern? I love hurricanes just not the storm surge.

[wxman57]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/KjXYYxSj/ECM.png

I'm in SWFL. Do you think we have a shot from the east in this pattern? I love hurricanes just not the storm surge.

It's a bad pattern for the NE Caribbean, Bahamas, S. Florida, and the Carolinas. It was fun getting out of school and going through hurricanes in S. Louisiana in the 1960s/1970s. We were far enough inland so that no surge could affect us. However, I've now seen enough hurricanes (and own a home) such that I don't ever want to see one again. A TS with a bit of rain would be nice about now.

[Ianswfl]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/KjXYYxSj/ECM.png

I'm in SWFL. Do you think we have a shot from the east in this pattern? I love hurricanes just not the storm surge.

It's a bad pattern for the NE Caribbean, Bahamas, S. Florida, and the Carolinas. It was fun getting out of school and going through hurricanes in S. Louisiana in the 1960s/1970s. We were far enough inland so that no surge could affect us. However, I've now seen enough hurricanes (and own a home) such that I don't ever want to see one again. A TS with a bit of rain would be nice about now.

We are dry here on the coast in SWFL too. Btw this dry summer pattern is reminding me a lot of 1998. I live in Punta Gorda now but lived in Naples in the 90s. That summer was dry like this, all the rain inland then we got Georges late Sept. I wonder if this is another late peaking season. Mark Suddith made a good point in his videos about how it seems peak hurricane season is being pushed back a couple weeks due to warming oceans. What is your take? Looks like this pattern might break down and get a strong bermuda high and return to our typical weather, BUT this is also hitting at the right time for long track threats.

With the warm Bahamas waters have to worry about something like an Andrew or Katrina staying weak and then exploding in the Bahamas. If we can get a fast moving system like a Charley from the Caribbean moving up my way things are going to explode fast. Waters 25 miles offshore of Venice are 91 degrees today. Hotter in the Keys.

[Bob R]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/KjXYYxSj/ECM.png

I'm in SWFL. Do you think we have a shot from the east in this pattern? I love hurricanes just not the storm surge.

It's a bad pattern for the NE Caribbean, Bahamas, S. Florida, and the Carolinas. It was fun getting out of school and going through hurricanes in S. Louisiana in the 1960s/1970s. We were far enough inland so that no surge could affect us. However, I've now seen enough hurricanes (and own a home) such that I don't ever want to see one again. A TS with a bit of rain would be nice about now.

I'm not a fan of TS. Francis and Jeanne were TS in 2004 at my location, and I had $60,000 worth of damage not covered by insurance.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the models are finally seeing some life, as expected this time of year. Euro and GFS both have systems in the long-range.

[SFLcane]

The hurricanes are coming folks...

[cycloneye]

12z ICON. Things are slowly heating up in MDR among the models.

[SFLcane]

12z ICON. Things are slowly heating up in MDR among the models.

https://i.imgur.com/MSTBhy5.gif

[AutoPenalti]

12z ICON. Things are slowly heating up in MDR among the models.

https://i.imgur.com/MSTBhy5.gif

That is a massive wave.

[BobHarlem]

12z ICON. Things are slowly heating up in MDR among the models.

https://i.imgur.com/MSTBhy5.gif

That is a massive wave.

12z canadian has this also.

[zzzh]

Euro, CMC and Icon all show something in the MDR in day 7-10 range. When the GFS is an outlier, don't trust it.

[gatorcane]

The GFS only has EPAC development, nothing in the Altantic through the next 10 days. The wave some of the other models are developing is exiting Africa on that image:

[AutoPenalti]

The GFS only has EPAC development, nothing in the Altantic through the next 10 days. The wave some of the other models are developing is exiting Africa on that image:

https://i.postimg.cc/26fFwBB7/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-28.png

GFS seems like the more realistic scenario here, but it's also over estimating the amount of dry air in the MDR.

[wxman57]

Here's something fun to do with the GFS. Set it on the North America region (Tropical Tidbits), go to upper-level and set it to Z500, Vort, and wind. Now go out about 10 days then at the bottom, click the arrow to look at the previous run. Now, Notice that every single run has a completely different 500mb pattern across the U.S. The pattern should be somewhat similar from run to run.

[rickcorvin]

Here's something fun to do with the GFS. Set it on the North America region (Tropical Tidbits), go to upper-level and set it to Z500, Vort, and wind. Now go out about 10 days then at the bottom, click the arrow to look at the previous run. Now, Notice that every single run has a completely different 500mb pattern across the U.S. The pattern should be somewhat similar from run to run.

That is a fun thing to do! I used the Trend GIF button to compare GFS and Euro runs on the same date. This is less than 10 days out because the Euro only goes out 10 days (at least on Tropical Tidbits).

GFS, valid at 12z August 16:


Euro, valid at 12z August 16:

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS.