Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[LarryWx]

12 Euro and UKMET have no TC from this

[Frank P]

12 Euro and UKMET have no TC from this

How do you get the EURO run so fast, Pivotal Weather is still running at h120?

[mantis83]

Looks like the Gulf Coast got extremely lucky with this one. If it developed in the Caribbean, it would have felt the weakness and bombed out in the Gulf.

agreed! this system looks cooked, stick a fork in it!

[toad strangler]

12 Euro and UKMET have no TC from this

How do you get the EURO run so fast, Pivotal Weather is still running at h120?

Well, storm Vista Is already done with the euro op run. So there’s one…

[Stratton23]

mantis83 no just no

[Hammy]

12 Euro and UKMET have no TC from this

UKMET might be the one we need to pay the most attention to, if I recall it never developed this at any point.

[Ivanhater]

12 Euro and UKMET have no TC from this

UKMET might be the one we need to pay the most attention to, if I recall it never developed this at any point.

UKmet has missed quite a few storms though...broken clock

[LarryWx]

12 Euro and UKMET have no TC from this

UKMET might be the one we need to pay the most attention to, if I recall it never developed this at any point.

UKmet has missed quite a few storms though...broken clock

It has and it is sometimes too conservative. Thus I think that Hammy means that if it were to have a TC that that would get our attention.

[Stratton23]

I see why the NHC didnt change development odds at the 2pm update, the EPS still largely disagrees with its OP run, 40% still looks respectable at this time

[IcyTundra]

I'm feeling pretty good that this won't amount to much considering the downtick in ensemble support. Obviously the Gulf Coast isn't in the clear yet but it is looking more and more likely that if development occurs it won't be until it is pretty far west allowing the system to stay weak.

[Stratton23]

the majority of the EPS focuses development in the western gulf, mexico/ texas could still be in play, i counted 19-20/50 members in the western gulf on the euro, thats still about 40%, worth watching still

[ConvergenceZone]

you know a season is lackluster when even waves with not a horrible environment around them struggle to develop during the peak of the season. Unbelievable. I thought for sure we would have at least 3 or 4 "active" storms by now. . I think this will end up being a depression or weak TS storm heading into Mexico, but again we are talking about season peak, not June or July.

[Ubuntwo]

Boring, that's it!

Can anyone explain me what happened for that wave not to develop? It's not shear, it's not SAL, it's not SST...

Maybe not SAL per se, but there is a healthy scooping of stable mid-level dry air to the north of this wave. Near the low-level vorticity max. Instead, we have mid-level moisture far to the south. This encourages displaced convection, leading to elongation and erasing progress in consolidation. This basically prevents the TC feedback loop from getting going. Earlier model solutions had an ITCZ 'rollup', which would establish a stacked area of vorticity embedded in a moist environment. This didn't happen. Yesterday's 18z GFS had a different solution. A more coherent mid-level vortex would be capable of firing convection through diurnally unfavorable period, sparking the feedback loop. This run was too enthusiastic in moisture levels and overestimated short-term vortex organization. It is an exceptionally fine line dynamically speaking but boils down to convection firing directly over the wave axis vs. not.

So why can't it just organize in the eastern Caribbean? Trades really pick up after this thing crosses the lesser Antilles. This will accelerate the wave and make it even harder to get coherent organization at all levels. There is good divergence aloft, so if a more organized wave or low entered the eastern Caribbean, it would deepen no question. That's not really on the table anymore. Trades start slowing in the western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche - this is now the most likely window for development. This does greatly reduce time available & fortunately brings down the chances of a high-impact storm.

[TomballEd]

Satellite imagery now and then proximity to South America says development is slow and late, or perhaps no development at all. I can't see 12Z Euro ensembles, but 1005 mb systems are TDs or weak TS, 1010 mb is a TD at most. Bizarre solutions from the GFS at greater than 300 hours usually don't happen. Probably a reason most models run their operational model only to 180 or 240 hours. The small errors that magnify with time are huge errors at 300+ hours. Why ensembles are used at that range.

The disturbance looks worse than it did yesterday.

On the slow season- yes, NS will bust badly, probably closer to a normal season. But late September to November might be a reflection of June and July. Systems that do develop, and closer to North America and the Caribbean.

[Ubuntwo]

I count 45% of 12z Euro ensemble members with bonafide development. Almost all of this is confined to the Gulf. A fair few members do lift north but most are limited to the Bay of Campeche. Unlike the past couple days where most developing members were intense, most here are tropical storms with a few scattered hurricanes.

[Stratton23]

thats still enough support on the EPS, and the EPS actually has a trough developing over the central US which starts to pull the members out of the BOC - northward, but thats beyond 10 days, still think at least the western gulf coast ( mexico- Lousiana) needs to keep an eye on this, until this wave actually moces in land, it should be watched

[Nimbus]

you know a season is lackluster when even waves with not a horrible environment around them struggle to develop during the peak of the season. Unbelievable. I thought for sure we would have at least 3 or 4 "active" storms by now. . I think this will end up being a depression or weak TS storm heading into Mexico, but again we are talking about season peak, not June or July.

Really fooled the 18Z GFS yesterday, all the models today tracking for the Yucantan.

[TomballEd]

A whole lot less than 40% of the EPS have a system in the Gulf/BoC unless one wants to count the 10-20 knot and 20-30 knot 1006 and 1009 mb members as being TCs in the Gulf. The NW Gulf lemon, IMHO, has better odds of becoming a named system, and I'm not being bullish on the NW Gulf lemon.

[Stratton23]

we will see i guess

[Ubuntwo]

thats still enough support on the EPS, and the EPS actually has a trough developing over the central US which starts to pull the members out of the BOC - northward, but thats beyond 10 days, still think at least the western gulf coast ( mexico- Lousiana) needs to keep an eye on this, until this wave actually moces in land, it should be watched

That trough is the north pull I was alluding to. Most that develop are still confined to a bay of campeche. It will take very tight trough timing for that, but like you said, still absolutely bears watching. Also note about 7 of the members in the Gulf are actually from the Gulf AOI.