ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[weathaguyry]

Also, I found some very interesting information, in 2012 which was somewhat considered an "aborted nino" year, the SOI dropped to -12.06 on March 31 after multiple days of negative values, on April 5th, values were in the -30's, but on April 10th it went back up towards neutral. Most forecasting companies thought an El-Nino would form, and when it didn't come in the spring, they thought it may come for the second half of the season, and it didn't come. Most of that reason could be that the PDO was negative, but it would have made sense for an El-Nino to form because the atmosphere bouncing back from the Nina of 10-11. There is also the fact that the last true La-Nina was back in 10-11, and since then there has been a super El-Nino, and last year was sort of a "La-Nada" so the atmosphere is probably going to fight against another El- Nino attempt. Also, the SST anomalies in the Atlantic look fairly similar, with a warm GOM, a stripe of cold water in the Caribbean, Bahamas, and some of the subtropics, as well as a warm MDR with some chillier water near the African Peninsula. Not to mention the PDO is at +.70 at the latest I can find, which isn't very positive.

[Ntxw]

Also, I found some very interesting information, in 2012 which was somewhat considered an "aborted nino" year, the SOI dropped to -12.06 on March 31 after multiple days of negative values, on April 5th, values were in the -30's, but on April 10th it went back up towards neutral. Most forecasting companies thought an El-Nino would form, and when it didn't come in the spring, they thought it may come for the second half of the season, and it didn't come. Most of that reason could be that the PDO was negative, but it would have made sense for an El-Nino to form because the atmosphere bouncing back from the Nina of 10-11. There is also the fact that the last true La-Nina was back in 10-11, and since then there has been a super El-Nino, and last year was sort of a "La-Nada" so the atmosphere is probably going to fight against another El- Nino attempt. Also, the SST anomalies in the Atlantic look fairly similar, with a warm GOM, a stripe of cold water in the Caribbean, Bahamas, and some of the subtropics, as well as a warm MDR with some chillier water near the African Peninsula. Not to mention the PDO is at +.70 at the latest I can find, which isn't very positive.

2012 was mostly surface based warmth. The issue with this event is the cold PDO and lack of WWBs which was not talked of much at the time. Last year was a La Nina it began during JAS (july-september) and lasted through this winter, ONI has it safely in the 5 trimonthly criteria. The PDO is firmly positive as you must remember to take this signal as a multiyear signal rather than use it for short terms. We are going 3+ years now of +PDO and it is not changing anytime soon.

2012 in itself is not a great comparison year, as it was the strong NIna and -PDO prior that really went against it. No such features this go round. But that does not guaranty a NIno either. I think the idea of +neutral and possibly sneak out a Nino due to the background state just favoring a Nino might be enough. The course fighting back is simply the tropical Pacific winds and currents not yet conducive. And even if there was no "true" Nino as mentioned the atmosphere may just reflect Nino like qualities more often than Nina even in warm neutral.

[Kingarabian]

Plus, didn't the models overdo the WWB lately?

If you look at the latest anomalies on the front page of this thread, you can see that the winds have begun shifting to a west to east direction (westerlies).

[weathaguyry]

Also, I found some very interesting information, in 2012 which was somewhat considered an "aborted nino" year, the SOI dropped to -12.06 on March 31 after multiple days of negative values, on April 5th, values were in the -30's, but on April 10th it went back up towards neutral. Most forecasting companies thought an El-Nino would form, and when it didn't come in the spring, they thought it may come for the second half of the season, and it didn't come. Most of that reason could be that the PDO was negative, but it would have made sense for an El-Nino to form because the atmosphere bouncing back from the Nina of 10-11. There is also the fact that the last true La-Nina was back in 10-11, and since then there has been a super El-Nino, and last year was sort of a "La-Nada" so the atmosphere is probably going to fight against another El- Nino attempt. Also, the SST anomalies in the Atlantic look fairly similar, with a warm GOM, a stripe of cold water in the Caribbean, Bahamas, and some of the subtropics, as well as a warm MDR with some chillier water near the African Peninsula. Not to mention the PDO is at +.70 at the latest I can find, which isn't very positive.

2012 was mostly surface based warmth. The issue with this event is the cold PDO and lack of WWBs which was not talked of much at the time. Last year was a La Nina it began during JAS (july-september) and lasted through this winter, ONI has it safely in the 5 trimonthly criteria. The PDO is firmly positive as you must remember to take this signal as a multiyear signal rather than use it for short terms. We are going 3+ years now of +PDO and it is not changing anytime soon.

2012 in itself is not a great comparison year, as it was the strong NIna and -PDO prior that really went against it. No such features this go round. But that does not guaranty a NIno either. I think the idea of +neutral and possibly sneak out a Nino due to the background state just favoring a Nino might be enough. The course fighting back is simply the tropical Pacific winds and currents not yet conducive. And even if there was no "true" Nino as mentioned the atmosphere may just reflect Nino like qualities more often than Nina even in warm neutral.

Ok, I really am not sure where I would be able to find more information about the ocean analysis for 2012 (plus I was only 9 years old at the time and my love of weather started after Hurricane Sandy ) Even though 2012 and this year had some different atmospheric setups, I was just pointing out some similarities between the years that looked interesting to me

[Ntxw]

Nudged down to 0.2C. Nino 1+2 continues its decline now at 0.5C

[stormlover2013]

ntxw- what is you're gut telling you about this year? el nino or neutral ?

[Ntxw]

ntxw- what is you're gut telling you about this year? el nino or neutral ?

I still don't see any WWB's in the near future. 850u winds actually show some more trades in the cpac near term but no true wwb west winds. Only weak anomalies which isn't true westerly. My gut tells me we hover warm neutral likely through summer and fall. May sneak a weak Nino by late in the year.

But given the PDO and other factors, the atmosphere may act more like a Nino more times than not even without a true ocean Nino due to the background state.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/853935460854509568

[TheStormExpert]

Personally I'm not sold we will get into another El Niño.

I agree. I'm predicting a near normal season for this year, and I'm personally not convinced that another El Niño will develop, especially since a major El Nino event just ended in 2015. I think that this year will be pretty neutral ENSO-wise, but I'm not ruling out signs of El Niño formation towards the end of the season.

Same here. Near normal season with most of the activity being confined to the first 3-4 months making it a front-loaded season where as last season was back-loaded. Not compared ruling out an El Niño, just not sold fully yet on it. If there is one it will be weak to moderate at best or could even be a rare Modoki El Niño.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update is down to +0.2C at Nino 3.4 while is down to +0.5C at Nino 1+2.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

The only thing that might keep the El Niño from forming until fall or even winter is that expanding cold pool in the subsurface of the ENSO even so it most likely will not be there by July because if that remains there might be no El Niño so a little fly in the ointment possibly for an El Niño

[Kingarabian]

ntxw- what is you're gut telling you about this year? el nino or neutral ?

I still don't see any WWB's in the near future. 850u winds actually show some more trades in the cpac near term but no true wwb west winds. Only weak anomalies which isn't true westerly. My gut tells me we hover warm neutral likely through summer and fall. May sneak a weak Nino by late in the year.

But given the PDO and other factors, the atmosphere may act more like a Nino more times than not even without a true ocean Nino due to the background state.

I know the SOI has flipped negative just recently, but shouldn't that itself (negative SOI) eventually cause the trades to considerably slow down in the CPAC?

[Kingarabian]

PDO for March comes in @ +0.74.

[cycloneye]

PDO for March comes in @ +0.74.

Has maintained in the + 70's since January.

[weathaguyry]

FYI, SOI came in today at -30.86, which is somewhat higher than the last 3 days, we'll see if this negative streak persists for a while

[Kingarabian]

FYI, SOI came in today at -30.86, which is somewhat higher than the last 3 days, we'll see if this negative streak persists for a while

The thing to look at for in the SOI is its 30 day and 90 day averages.
The daily's can come in positive as well and the 30 day avg will still be negative since the big negatives will have to eventually be accounted for.

[Kingarabian]

PDO for March comes in @ +0.74.

Has maintained in the + 70's since January.

Yep and it looks like it will be higher for April as well.

[Ntxw]

ntxw- what is you're gut telling you about this year? el nino or neutral ?

I still don't see any WWB's in the near future. 850u winds actually show some more trades in the cpac near term but no true wwb west winds. Only weak anomalies which isn't true westerly. My gut tells me we hover warm neutral likely through summer and fall. May sneak a weak Nino by late in the year.

But given the PDO and other factors, the atmosphere may act more like a Nino more times than not even without a true ocean Nino due to the background state.

I know the SOI has flipped negative just recently, but shouldn't that itself (negative SOI) eventually cause the trades to considerably slow down in the CPAC?

If it remains so then it should help signal a possible WWB, though there is not a 1:1 correlation. Sometimes the mid latitudes (where SOI is calculated) can simply be a resultant of that region being "nino-like" but not necessarily in the tropical Pacific. As you mentioned above the 30 and 90 day is more telling as there is less noise with these and if they are deeply negative then you'd more likely to be looking at consistent WWBs/Nino forcing.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

POAMA-2 Seasonal System Tropical Ocean Skill

Plots of tropical SST Seasonal Skill at lead times up to 9 months.
For monthly skill figures, lead 0 refers to the first month, lead 1 refers to the second month, and so forth.
For seasonal skill figures, lead 0 refers to an average of the first three months, lead 1 refers to an average of 2nd to 4th months of prediction, and so forth.

[cycloneye]

He said in the CSU April forecast Moderate El nino for ASO but now is weak El Nino.Maybe he goes up a little bit in the numbers from the 11/4/2 in the next forecast?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/854100284775297024