ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kazmit]

The "late in the year" El Niño possibility could be similar to how last year played out (except last year was a La Niña of course). What I mean is it could be neutral in the basin until later in the year, and then a weak or Modoki El Niño could sneak out.

[Hunabku]

Well in terms of the camp that is for an active atlantic hurricane season, a modoki is definitely better than comparable warming closer to the Atlantic. The 2004 modoki in particular seems to be the poster child for an active atlantic season and a modoki.

see here: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneFan/my-way-too-early-thoughts-on-the-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season
and here: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=7992490&page=1

[Ntxw]

Well in terms of the camp that is for an active atlantic hurricane season, a modoki is definitely better than comparable warming closer to the Atlantic. The 2004 modoki in particular seems to be the poster child for an active atlantic season and a modoki.

see here: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneFan/my-way-too-early-thoughts-on-the-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season
and here: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=7992490&page=1

But there are other modoki El Nino seasons that are inactive (look at 1977 for example), just as there are fairly active strong traditional El Nino (1965 for example) seasons. One year does not make a dataset but for some reason it seems to be the only year rung out when you hear "modoki". It's more cherry picking than good statistics.

[Hunabku]

Well in terms of the camp that is for an active atlantic hurricane season, a modoki is definitely better than comparable warming closer to the Atlantic. The 2004 modoki in particular seems to be the poster child for an active atlantic season and a modoki.

see here: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneFan/my-way-too-early-thoughts-on-the-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season
and here: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=7992490&page=1

But there are other modoki El Nino seasons that are inactive (look at 1977 for example), just as there are fairly active strong traditional El Nino (1965 for example) seasons. One year does not make a dataset but for some reason it seems to be the only year rung out when you hear "modoki". It's more cherry picking than good statistics.

Given that the Modoki trend didn't start picking up steam until the 90s, the modoki dataset in its entirety is likely not large enough to make a strong correlation with Atlantic hurricane occurrence - with hurricanes there's so many factors involved and hence lots of variability. However, i imagine there is a stronger correlation between the region of Nino warming and the amount wind shear in the Atlantic.

[Yellow Evan]

Well in terms of the camp that is for an active atlantic hurricane season, a modoki is definitely better than comparable warming closer to the Atlantic. The 2004 modoki in particular seems to be the poster child for an active atlantic season and a modoki.

see here: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneFan/my-way-too-early-thoughts-on-the-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season
and here: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=7992490&page=1

But there are other modoki El Nino seasons that are inactive (look at 1977 for example), just as there are fairly active strong traditional El Nino (1965 for example) seasons. One year does not make a dataset but for some reason it seems to be the only year rung out when you hear "modoki". It's more cherry picking than good statistics.

Given that the Modoki trend didn't start picking up steam until the 90s, the modoki dataset in its entirety is likely not large enough to make a strong correlation with Atlantic hurricane occurrence - with hurricanes there's so many factors involved and hence lots of variability. However, i imagine there is a stronger correlation between the region of Nino warming and the amount wind shear in the Atlantic.

What constitutes a Modoki is also really grey in general as there is no precise definition.

[Kingarabian]

But there are other modoki El Nino seasons that are inactive (look at 1977 for example), just as there are fairly active strong traditional El Nino (1965 for example) seasons. One year does not make a dataset but for some reason it seems to be the only year rung out when you hear "modoki". It's more cherry picking than good statistics.

Given that the Modoki trend didn't start picking up steam until the 90s, the modoki dataset in its entirety is likely not large enough to make a strong correlation with Atlantic hurricane occurrence - with hurricanes there's so many factors involved and hence lots of variability. However, i imagine there is a stronger correlation between the region of Nino warming and the amount wind shear in the Atlantic.

What constitutes a Modoki is also really grey in general as there is no precise definition.

Yeah... Like 2009's El Nino. I think some pro mets were calling it a Modoki although it had a traditional look. 2009's El Nino made conditions in the Atlantic very unfavorable.

[Kingarabian]

30 day SOI falls below the -8 threshold for the first time since May 2016.

Per the GFS and Euro;
We Should see some healthy daily negative values until this weekend. Then we'll likely pickup some daily positives this weekend until mid next week which will help the trade burst. However in the long range, models either raise pressures over Australia or drop them near Tahiti, So I expect the SOI to average out and remain at -8 as the season starts.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 holds steady this week at 0.5C

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update that stays at +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

ONI for FMA rose to +0.1

[cycloneye]

POAMa backs off from El Nino as is now at Neutral for ASO.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OEz7et ... e=youtu.be

very interesting

[weathaguyry]

I watched that this morning, that was a wonderful insight to what was going on!

[weathaguyry]

POAMa backs off from El Nino as is now at Neutral for ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/dIt98wN.jpg

That "dip" near the middle of the hurricane season is very interesting, it may prove to be something important in terms of conditions in the Atlantic

[wxman57]

The May ECMWF Nino 3.4 forecast has a few more ensemble members going with < 0.5C than the April forecast, but the mean appears to be around +0.9C for peak season. Relatively weak El Ninos typically don't have much of an impact on the season.

[Ntxw]

-SOI continues in the southern hemisphere. The positives from earlier in the period is being chipped away and both the 30 and 90 day SOI continues to fall. Daily SOI can be considered much noise especially with tropical activity but the broader pattern allowing this activity is present. 30 day is now below -9

[hurricanetrack]

In my opinion, but based on current conditions as well as the forecast models, any talk of El Nino at this point will be a winter player and not much of an influence on the ATL hurricane season. It's going to take several months for the atmosphere and ocean to couple with that negative SOI (which is definitely in the ballpark of a warm ENSO event taking place) to produce downwelling and subsequent warming of the surface later on. Several months from now puts us in the middle of the ATL hurricane season - so, in short, too little too late if you ask me.

[WeatherEmperor]

So the POAMA forecasts near neutral and the Euro mean shows near 0.9+ for Enso 3.4. for the peak of the ATL season. Which model has been more accurate historically speaking?


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[NDG]

So the POAMA forecasts near neutral and the Euro mean shows near 0.9+ for Enso 3.4. for the peak of the ATL season. Which model has been more accurate historically speaking?


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Not sure about POAMA but the Euro has been for the most part during the past few years warm bias when it comes to Nino 3.4
Latest CFSv2 is also for borderline warm neutral/weak El Nino conditions during the peak of the season.

[Kingarabian]

-SOI continues in the southern hemisphere. The positives from earlier in the period is being chipped away and both the 30 and 90 day SOI continues to fall. Daily SOI can be considered much noise especially with tropical activity but the broader pattern allowing this activity is present. 30 day is now below -9

Yeah. It has a lot of noise for sure but this is the first time in 12 months it has fellen below -8, so it has merit in terms of what the atmosphere has been leaning to.

Daily negatives should continue until this weekend, then into next week we'll see positives and neutral values. By May 20th into June we'll see negative daily's dominating again.