Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[JonathanBelles]

They are actually putting out probabilities on systems being outlooked this year. This is one is less than 20%.

I dont mean this in a mean way...but there is a clear key on the bottom of the image and it was mentioned in the first TWO. I dont think this comment was needed.

[Vortex]

Just wanna mention its good to see many of the usual suspects returning for the season

[MiamiensisWx]

The EPAC and Atlantic "areas of interest" are associated with the same surface trough. Therefore, as the EPAC surface low drifts east, it will influence and likely support cyclogenesis in the southern Caribbean region in combination with the low level vorticity. Everything is going to plan and matches my thoughts; convection is currently diminishing over the southern Caribbean as forecast in my graphic. Tomorrow, that will likely change; see my graphic above (black text on white background) for further discussion.

Graphical analysis

Red text over mainland Mexico: "Diurnal convection"
Red text near Hispaniola: "Orographically induced convection"
Dark blue text over central Caribbean Sea: "Upper level shear"

Edit: Here's one with clearer text (http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/4038/caribbeanmay26082mh9.png).

[Blown Away]

[HURAKAN]

This system is testing everyone's patience and abilities. There's a long season ahead.

[MiamiensisWx]

In response to complaints regarding the visibility of the text, I have altered the graphic of my analysis for some viewers. Is this clearer, Sandy?

[HURAKAN]

Much easier to read!

[Thunder44]

They are actually putting out probabilities on systems being outlooked this year. This is one is less than 20%.

I dont mean this in a mean way...but there is a clear key on the bottom of the image and it was mentioned in the first TWO. I dont think this comment was needed.

I know. I just wanted to comment on it.

[Aric Dunn]

In response to complaints regarding the visibility of the text, I have altered the graphic of my analysis for some viewers. Is this clearer, Sandy?

agreed i had mentioned something similar earlier .. that is a very good analysis. and graphic ..

[Opal storm]

This system is testing everyone's patience and abilities. There's a long season ahead.

40 pages on something that hasn't even happened yet. I think it's safe to say it's going to be a long season. But I'm not complaining, love discussing with weather freaks just like myself.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Derek its not only GFS,also CMC is looking east.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That is why I am not hoping on board the development bandwagon yet. I am concerned about any of the off season model changes. If you make the smallest of changes to a model, the results can be dramatically different (I have learned this via some Katrina experiments I have recently been running and the changes are merely related to differences in blending radii after a vortex relocation... minor changes produce 2 very different storms)

Are input data sets for model runs from previous years saved?

In petroleum engineering, models that predict all kinds of good things are used to develop 'hindcasts', data from long ago is entered to see if the model fairly accurately predicts what has already happened. I'd hope, that before a new version/iteration of any model is released, it would be run with data sets from numerous different situations, to see how well it accurately worked.

[Eyewall]

My weather man here just mention tropical development in the caribbean. Man everyone has caught on to this one. This fourm is jumping and we do not even have an invest yet.

[Aric Dunn]

its just that you dont get this good of a consensus from the models very often ... especially with nothing actually there

[MiamiensisWx]

its just that you dont get this good of a consensus from the models very often ... especially with nothing actually there

...and something is there in this case over the southern Caribbean and extreme eastern Pacific.

[Aric Dunn]

its just that you dont get this good of a consensus from the models very often ... especially with nothing actually there

...and something is there in this case over the southern Caribbean and extreme eastern Pacific.

let me re phrase ...
until today ,,... there was nothing in carribean ....

[MiamiensisWx]

let me re phrase ...
until today ,,... there was nothing in carribean ....

The broad surface trough was there as indicated by the GFS. It absolutely nailed the timing and development of a possible TC in the southern Caribbean (tonight through Thursday).

[Eyewall]

You are right this is the best model agreement I have seen in a long time.

[Aric Dunn]

let me re phrase ...
until today ,,... there was nothing in carribean ....

The broad surface trough was there as indicated by the GFS. It absolutely nailed the timing and development of a possible TC in the southern Caribbean (tonight through Thursday).

ok right i agree the trough was there but no convection what so ever really yesterday or the past few days in the Sw carrib.. so when i say there was nothing there ... see tropical cyclones are made up of this stuff called clouds and convection..

[lebron23]

[HURAKAN]

That would be really interesting!!!