2015 Global model runs discussion

[Alyono]

EC 981mb in the CGOM

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF....YOWZA, as it heads ENE:

[BigB0882]

Even if it doesn't hit a specific area (New Orleans, for example) it could end up causing a ton of flooding if it comes close enough to shore. It will eventually landfall somewhere but the entire northern Gulf could have lots of flooding depending on size and speed of movement.

[gatorcane]

It's a strange path though, surprised it wouldn't head more north, why the turn ENE? Interesting model watching ahead for sure.

[BigB0882]

And let's hope a ridge doesn't build in and nudge this back West. Talk about a worst case scenario for the coast.

And I agree, an ENE heading seems a bit odd but you never know. 10 days out is lala-land for any model. Maybe we will know more in 5 days if this has actually generated.

[stormlover2013]

yeah still 10 days away, euro 5th straight run

[gatorcane]

The Euro is showing development starting by day 5, you got to think something may try to get going around where the Euro is showing. The GFS and GEM are showing something but much different solutions. We shall see, seems the globals are latching on to something getting into the BOC/WGOM area starting in about 5-6 days from now.

[Rgv20]

It's a strange path though, surprised it wouldn't head more north, why the turn ENE? Interesting model watching ahead for sure.

Looks like it gets stuck in very weak steering currents on the ECMWF same with the GFS and CMC but in those models it has more of a westerly direction and runs out of time. Lets see what the ECMWF Ensembles have to say because as of right now the operational ECMWF is the outlier..

[stormlover2013]

let us know what the operational show please

[perk]

The Euro is showing development starting by day 5, you got to think something may try to get going around where the Euro is showing. The GFS and GEM are showing something but much different solutions. We shall see, seems the globals are latching on to something getting into the BOC/WGOM area starting in about 5-6 days from now.

Yeah the GFS and the GEM is much weaker with a more northerly component.

[Hammy]

Current modeled path sort of reminding me just a tad of Earl 1998.

[stormlover2013]

good thing is long ways out, but atleast its something to watch

[Stormcenter]

I sure hope this does not turn out to be an unwanted surprise to an otherwise very quiet season. IMO

[wxman57]

I'll believe it when I see it, but I do believe in the "year of 5s" rule. (9 of the past 10 seasons in years ending in 5 featured significant, if not major U.S. hurricane impacts).

Analog years did indicate the increased potential for close-in development.

[Alyono]

CMC only drives this west because it stupidly brings Grace into the Gulf as a TC

[Steve]

The Euro shows that storm a little too close for comfort, though luckily that's 10 days out. Also, I'm guessing the pressure of 982 isn't exactly high resolution, so it could be deeper. You'd expect somewhat of a fade if the European is right to prognosticate a NE or ENE fade across the gulf, but it could also grab some re-energy at/near the Loop Current. I'm still not sure on the origins. Someone posted earlier that Joe B tweeted it was from a wave sneaking under. Other models seem to show influence from either Mexico or piled up energy down there (when you run various vorticities/vortex heights). What appears to happen with GFS is a strong upper trough drops down and sets up across the Northern Gulf and lifts out a few days later. Big unknown there, but it's something we all should be watching for later in the week or weekend to see if there are any hints of genesis.

[wxman57]

Remember, earlier this year (Friday, July 24th) the Euro predicted a low to develop east of Florida over the weekend then track up the East U.S. Coast as a hurricane the following week. It never developed. I'm not saying "no chance", I'm saying it's too early to believe the Euro's forecast. Maybe if it is consistent with the forecast all this week...

[Hurricaneman]

Remember, earlier this year (Friday, July 24th) the Euro predicted a low to develop east of Florida over the weekend then track up the East U.S. Coast as a hurricane the following week. It never developed. I'm not saying "no chance", I'm saying it's too early to believe the Euro's forecast. Maybe if it is consistent with the forecast all this week...

Actually that system did try to develop but started to develop as land was near so it didn't have enough time to become a tropical cyclone

As for the Euro the BOC does need to be watched this weekend

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[stormlover2013]

What if energy from grace and this collide with each other lol that would be awesome

[Rgv20]

The 12zECMWF Ensembles are a mess, 5 sub 1000mb Ensemble Members and many sub 1005mb for the western GOM early next week....The 12z operational ECMWF has more Ensemble support than it has had in previous runs so IMO developing chances are creeping up for early next week.