2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Sciencerocks]

NHC doesn't buy the 956 mbs.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

They'll probably wait at least another 2 or 3 days to see other models join the gfs first.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC doesn't buy the 956 mbs.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

They'll probably wait at least another 2 or 3 days to see other models join the gfs first.

that and wait for convection to actually develop first

[LarryWx]

Warning, warning, I'm about to report on the Happy Hour GEFS, which has a reputation as being the most genesis happy in the W basin of the 4 GEFS runs. So, take this with a grain of salt: 10 of the 21 members have a sub 1004 mb low in the N GOM late next week with 7 of these sub 1000 mb. They hit the US from FL to TX during 6/15-17. This is the most active GEFS run in quite a while. But again, take with a grain since it is the 18Z. By the way, some folks routinely toss the 18Z GFS suite. I'm not suggesting that by any means.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS just won’t give up, in fact it looks to be doubling down:

https://s15.postimg.cc/zdmlio1kb/gfs_ms ... atl_29.png

We saw a very similar story last July around early-mid month only in the MDR. The Euro had it for a run or two only to drop it afterwards.

[MGC]

18Z GFS run looks like another Audrey for TX/LA. This is very doubtful......MGC

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS run looks like another Audrey for TX/LA. This is very doubtful......MGC

Very likely due to the GFS bias of recent years of overdeepening TCs. Example: Irma progged by the GFS to go down into the 880s.

[AtlanticWind]

18Z GFS run looks like another Audrey for TX/LA. This is very doubtful......MGC

Very likely due to the GFS bias of recent years of overdeepening TCs. Example: Irma progged by the GFS to go down into the 880s.

Just looked at GFS forecast on Aletta from Monday, was pretty accurate on her strength

[stormreader]

18Z GFS run looks like another Audrey for TX/LA. This is very doubtful......MGC

Very likely due to the GFS bias of recent years of overdeepening TCs. Example: Irma progged by the GFS to go down into the 880s.

Audrey would be extreme...but I posted another analog storm last night, the June hurricane of 1934. Came up from CA and crossed gulf with Cat 2 pressure before landfall along south-central La coast. Cat1-2 I would think is a little more reasonable.

[Twisted-core]

GFS spawns the embryo of the model cane from within a broad monsoon gyre over ca.

[cycloneye]

HWRF will be upgraded on July 9

Excerpt:

The 2018 HWRF system has been fully tested and compared with the

forecast results with 2017 operational HWRF. It has shown

overall improved skill in intensity forecasts and neutral to

positive impact on track forecasts in all global basins.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification ... 60hwrf.htm

[Aric Dunn]

00z Icon 500 MB Vort...
surface reflection is fairly weak at first. but it would not take much for it to work to surface on ICON.

starts in 36hrs.. means convection should really start to increase tonight and tomorrow.

[Weather150]

00z Icon 500 MB Vort...
surface reflection is fairly weak at first. but it would not take much for it to work to surface on ICON.

starts in 36hrs.. means convection should really start to increase tonight and tomorrow.

Think a mention from the NHC sometime this weekend?

[TheStormExpert]

Gulf of Mexico wind shear is still running below normal for what it’s worth. Still not buying a major hurricane in the Gulf in June.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON slow to organize from shear. but emerges a little earlier into gulf wed into thursday and begins to organize

[Aric Dunn]

[ROCK]

Wouldn’t rule out a major in GOM in June. Has happened before and will happen again. Just a matter of when.. all global are sniffing so good bet to lay down for some kind of development. Leaning BOC and MX for June thou ..the death ridge over Texas is mighty..JMO

[ROCK]

Audrey for you older LA folks 1957 ...

[Aric Dunn]

GFS sticking to its guns along with the ICON and CMC . 36hrs from now things begin to come together.

00 GFS much more organized early on..

[Aric Dunn]

Starting 12z tomorrow we will be within 24 hours of potential organization ... means convection better start building in the next 12 hours.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

CMC is very aggressive with development early on in the SW carrib again. and earlier.