2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF has either a strong wave or a weak TD north of the Caribbean by day 10.

Yeah, I know, 240 hours out.

[Steve]

12z ECMWF has either a strong wave or a weak TD north of the Caribbean by day 10.

Yeah, I know, 240 hours out.

While I agree that 10 days is most of the time fantasy world, sometimes models coalesce around an area that we can pretty much bank on even 3 weeks out. So you never know. Multiple models have energy piling in the Islands, so maybe?

18z ICON has a better depiction than 12Z and is only out 5 days until surface low forms. Looks like it's essentially under building high pressure too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71518&fh=6
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 518&fh=120

Here it is at 500mb. It shows an upper level low moving across the Gulf in a couple of days and then the spin which comes under high pressure. That's OG classic pattern reversal. Those are the kinds of situations that sometimes find intensifying storms hitting the W and NW Gulf of Mexico. I know most of us don't really follow the ICON or trust what it does, it earned recent note with Fay.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 518&fh=120

[TheProfessor]

12z ECMWF has either a strong wave or a weak TD north of the Caribbean by day 10.

Yeah, I know, 240 hours out.

While I agree that 10 days is most of the time fantasy world, sometimes models coalesce around an area that we can pretty much bank on even 3 weeks out. So you never know. Multiple models have energy piling in the Islands, so maybe?

18z ICON has a better depiction than 12Z and is only out 5 days until surface low forms. Looks like it's essentially under building high pressure too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71518&fh=6
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 518&fh=120

Here it is at 500mb. It shows an upper level low moving across the Gulf in a couple of days and then the spin which comes under high pressure. That's OG classic pattern reversal. Those are the kinds of situations that sometimes find intensifying storms hitting the W and NW Gulf of Mexico. I know most of us don't really follow the ICON or trust what it does, it earned recent note with Fay.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 518&fh=120

As I mentioned above it does have some support from the 12z GEPS. As of right now the GFS and GEFS haven't shown much of anything in the Gulf during this time frame.

[Steve]

Yeah, I looked at that at 12z. Looked like it favored the NW Gulf. NAM 18Z 12km has an interesting scenario that maybe backs up the ICON's ideas. It takes all the North Gulf energy that's been along the coast all day today and spins it across the Gulf to South Texas and then spins the trailing Gulf low. That only shows up on NAM's 500mb, and it's a day and a half early. So it might be the Upper Low ICON moves into the SC TX Coast before spinning the surface low. You can't tell because NAM only goes out to 3 1/2 days. :/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1518&fh=10

I'm not sure if this next round in Southern Mississippi will hold together until it rotates down here. This is the energy ICON has moving toward Brownsville in 2-3 days.
radar - https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

the wave the 12z EURO starts developing east of the bahamas is on the 18z GFS heading towards texas when it finally starts to organize. which happens to be the wave or a combination of waves near the cape verde islands.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe a yellow circle soon. GFS has a brief system developing just off of Africa.

[Steve]

Since it's still a model storm (ICON at that), and because I don't start threads, I didn't make a watching the Gulf this week thread. Upper energy is substantial. I just watched swirling low clouds in front of a rainbow as we're about to get it from 2 directions. With the upper energy heading for the Gulf, storms are peaking about now. We have some moving up from the SE and then the big mass rotating around from the NE. I'm just on the edge, so I'm looking for maybe a couple inches if this holds together the next 2 hours. This low is headed toward Brownsville, and though it's more thunder/lightning than tropical, expect it to spin pretty good through the Gulf. It's either the next one after this or the one after that (5 days?) that could possibly be at the surface.

Current radar lighting up red and heading for The Professor over in St. Tammany:
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Here's the GEO color. I don't wonder if this is actually a split from some of the upper energy in the Great Lakes as it's backing away Southwest, or if not, maybe it was just a random cutoff low that I missed. There's a lot of juice on the east side in FL/GA and rotating around. Even though this is a teaser system, it ought to look really cool tomorrow and Friday over the Gulf for anyone interested. Maybe even :lrak: can get a surfing day in.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[floridasun78]

i don't think nhc forecaster see any thing with wave off Africa because no circle on map their don't see any big forecast models do any thing with wave too

[Steve]

HRRR satellite simulation @ 00z which is the 36 hour run, shows this low spinning up overhead so far out to 22 hours. Obviously this front running upper low is heading to Deep South Texas and should being rain to points farther north and east. Of local note they just had one of those deep explosion thunders in the distance. It wasn’t that loud but I haven’t heard many of those.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1600&fh=15

[gatorcane]

I see the 12Z GFS has a TS entering the Gulf past south Florida on the 31st. I'm sure we can believe it. The rest of July looks more "normal" for July. No activity. Things should pick up considerably by the second week of August, as they typically do. Until then, I'll enjoy the quiet and will take some time off work.

Agreed, a couple of things popping up in the models today but i am not holding my breath. All super long-range so likely will not exist in the next set of model runs.

[Steve]

Quasi-depression showing up at the LA Coast on King Icon (?) 2am Tuesday morning. It shows at least 2 more swirls on the way. Energy comes across Florida and consolidates in the Gulf. Most of the weather appears to be in MS/AL/FL, but the center comes in here but ends up sticking around for a while ( = no steering currents).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=129

It would be a pretty big coup for the German model to have sniffed this out and gone 2 for the last 2. You know it's not going to happen, but since it's the models thread, you have to throw it out there for discussion. I don't know what Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic even means. And I don't care. But we'll see if any of the other globals want to take a bite at this.


Here's 200mb's, so luckily it won't have time over the water as you can see high pressure on top of the surface low.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=129

OTOH, it doesn't really go anywhere for 60 hours. It's obviously got it weak, because the 12" of rain is just off the MS and AL Coasts. If it is onto something, look out for possible flooding that way.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro showing a strong/developing wave coming into South Florida and some suspicious waves in the MDR.

A sign things are starting to juice up

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[St0rmTh0r]

Hey new poster here. 2020 has been a historic year for the world. People need get prepared for what's to consider you live in hurricane prone areas. I have family in florida and along the gulf coast so I want to bring them the news. Good or bad.

[St0rmTh0r]

00Z Euro showing a strong/developing wave coming into South Florida and some suspicious waves in the MDR.

A sign things are starting to juice uphttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200716/76cb0d3d3c6d98c10f666d4d2221521a.jpg

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The pattern unfortunately looks like there could be several landfalls this year. I remember storms from 2017 in similar steering currents

[AutoPenalti]

We are about 3 weeks away, let’s see how much ACE we can pile up during ASO. Anyone want to place bets for 160+ ACE by the end of this season?

[St0rmTh0r]

We are about 3 weeks away, let’s see how much ACE we can pile up during ASO. Anyone want to place bets for 160+ ACE by the end of this season?

500k on 220+ up the anti

[NDG]

I see the 12Z GFS has a TS entering the Gulf past south Florida on the 31st. I'm sure we can believe it. The rest of July looks more "normal" for July. No activity. Things should pick up considerably by the second week of August, as they typically do. Until then, I'll enjoy the quiet and will take some time off work.

Agreed, a couple of things popping up in the models today but i am not holding my breath. All super long-range so likely will not exist in the next set of model runs.

I am surprised you didn't mentioned that in the long range ensemble models show nothing but ridging from the Atlantic into the eastern US & SE Canada

[NDG]

If will be very surprising if we do not see development out of this TW if true that such a strong anticyclonic ridge/flow develops on top or very close to it as it tracks north of the Antilles as shown by the Euro for at least 2 runs in a row now.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS is better defining the wave coming off Africa on the 20th.
Starts to gain amplitude as it crosses the MDR.
Reaches about 20N at 40W
Deepens by the time it hits the islands.
Possible PR impact.
Could be a Carib Runner or a Bahama Mama.

[TheStormExpert]

If will be very surprising if we do not see development out of this TW if true that such a strong anticyclonic ridge/flow develops on top or very close to it as it tracks north of the Antilles as shown by the Euro for at least 2 runs in a row now.

https://i.imgur.com/NgK2L3w.gif
https://i.imgur.com/iqJl4Np.gif

The Euro is probably underestimating development with a setup like that.