2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cpv17]

The European model dumps 16” over the Matagorda Bay areas.

[captainbarbossa19]

If this thing develops and somehow pulls a Harvey or Imelda, I am not staying this time. I am out of here!

Man, it's WAY too early to invoke those names.

And as a whole, more models as of now still show a Mexico to South Texas solution. Still time to watch and wait. Of course, that ridge/trough interaction will be key to whatever does form.

Oh I know that the likelihood of another storm like that is not high. It's just I am saying that if it does look like that is going to happen again, I am not going to stay. My area was underwater during both storms. I was trapped for days at my house.

[SoupBone]

The European model dumps 16” over the Matagorda Bay areas.

Yeah that would not be good at all. CP, you in the Corpus area? I can't remember.

[Clearcloudz]

12z ECENS ensemble model run

[jlauderdal]

GFS wants to kill me

I have been killed by the gfs many times, still here.

[CyclonicFury]

Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS

[Cpv17]

Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS

https://i.imgur.com/UFcQcUJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Bunch of fish storms. Yawn.

[CyclonicFury]

Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS

https://i.imgur.com/UFcQcUJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Bunch of fish storms. Yawn.

The early model runs for Irma and Florence had them recurving over the far eastern Atlantic. A recurve is probably favored the later we get but the EPS does seem to have a bias of developing waves too quickly in the long range.

[Cpv17]

Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS

https://i.imgur.com/UFcQcUJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Bunch of fish storms. Yawn.

The early model runs for Irma and Florence had them recurving over the far eastern Atlantic. A recurve is probably favored the later we get but the EPS does seem to have a bias of developing waves too quickly in the long range.

Yeah that’s true, I will say that much.

[aspen]

Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS

https://i.imgur.com/UFcQcUJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Bunch of fish storms. Yawn.

Strong fish storms are great — exciting to track without the dread of it about to devastate an entire community. The “f” in “fish storm” stands for fun, unless you’re a fish.

Unfortunately, the strong ridging will likely make safe recurves less probable, and the models are know to show recurves very early on only to correct for a more westward track.

[weeniepatrol]

Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS

https://i.imgur.com/UFcQcUJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Bunch of fish storms. Yawn.

Yeah this will age like milk in the Florida sun

[Cpv17]

Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS

https://i.imgur.com/UFcQcUJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Bunch of fish storms. Yawn.

Strong fish storms are great — exciting to track without the dread of it about to devastate an entire community. The “f” in “fish storm” stands for fun, unless you’re a fish.

Unfortunately, the strong ridging will likely make safe recurves less probable, and the models are know to show recurves very early on only to correct for a more westward track.

Different strokes for different folks. I find them boring. I mean they’re cool to look at and watch them strengthen but that’s really about it for me.

[Cpv17]

Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS

https://i.imgur.com/UFcQcUJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Bunch of fish storms. Yawn.

Yeah this will age like milk in the Florida sun

Very well could but I was just stating what it showed. Likely won’t come to fruition though.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1429174343603564546

[CyclonicFury]

I'm not sure what is up with the operational models anymore.

While the ensembles have been pretty good at identifying Atlantic TC development potential in 2020 and 2021, the operational models have been poor, either keeping systems weak or dissipating them. A few days ago the EURO showed Grace dissipating in the Gulf which made no sense. GFS seems to want to string out every wave in the long range. And the EURO seems incapable of developing anything past a moderate tropical storm.

[IcyTundra]

The operational GFS and Euro do show development for the homegrown GOM/BOC/W Carribean storm sometime next weekend. The Euro has had major struggles with cyclogenesis and even it is showing a storm in the Gulf late next weekend.

[Cpv17]

I'm not sure what is up with the operational models anymore.

While the ensembles have been pretty good at identifying Atlantic TC development potential in 2020 and 2021, the operational models have been poor, either keeping systems weak or dissipating them. A few days ago the EURO showed Grace dissipating in the Gulf which made no sense. GFS seems to want to string out every wave in the long range. And the EURO seems incapable of developing anything past a moderate tropical storm.

Something wrong with the algorithms? Possibly? Who knows? I’d love to have this question answered as well.

[SoupBone]

I'm not sure what is up with the operational models anymore.

While the ensembles have been pretty good at identifying Atlantic TC development potential in 2020 and 2021, the operational models have been poor, either keeping systems weak or dissipating them. A few days ago the EURO showed Grace dissipating in the Gulf which made no sense. GFS seems to want to string out every wave in the long range. And the EURO seems incapable of developing anything past a moderate tropical storm.

I'm not sure I'm following. The GFS develops the system we're all talking about and it makes landfall in central Mexico, the Euro landfalls it in South Padre island. Both show development.

[IcyTundra]

I'm not sure what is up with the operational models anymore.

While the ensembles have been pretty good at identifying Atlantic TC development potential in 2020 and 2021, the operational models have been poor, either keeping systems weak or dissipating them. A few days ago the EURO showed Grace dissipating in the Gulf which made no sense. GFS seems to want to string out every wave in the long range. And the EURO seems incapable of developing anything past a moderate tropical storm.

I'm not sure I'm following. The GFS develops the system we're all talking about and it makes landfall in central Mexico, the Euro landfalls it in South Padre island. Both show development.

I don't think he is just talking about this potential storm he is talking about the recent trend of the Euro and GFS struggling with cyclogenesis. In general I think the Euro has been having more issues than the GFS lately when it comes to this. Because of the Euro's recent issues I find it concerning that the Euro is picking up on it a week in advance.

[Clearcloudz]

I'm not sure what is up with the operational models anymore.

While the ensembles have been pretty good at identifying Atlantic TC development potential in 2020 and 2021, the operational models have been poor, either keeping systems weak or dissipating them. A few days ago the EURO showed Grace dissipating in the Gulf which made no sense. GFS seems to want to string out every wave in the long range. And the EURO seems incapable of developing anything past a moderate tropical storm.

I'm not sure I'm following. The GFS develops the system we're all talking about and it makes landfall in central Mexico, the Euro landfalls it in South Padre island. Both show development.

I feel like deep in the back of our minds we want to see category 3 hurricanes or higher on model runs but I feel like a lot of these models do a decent job trying to show storm 1 to 2 weeks out in advance for track purposes as intensity of hurricanes is hard to predict for the models so far in advance.