2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[toad strangler]

Decent SAL outbreak in process this week......
https://i.ibb.co/hgqLj81/ec3.jpg

I find the Fox's Saharan dust graphics to be a bit exaggerating, according to this graphic and by looking at surface reports the current Saharan dust outbreaks are mostly average to below average in thickness.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0Yotfa.gif

SAL gets talked about A LOT on this forum, but so far the outbreaks havent been very strong, the last one was decent; but more like a normal level. I like your graphic better than the exaggerated one.

2020 had insane SAL's and look how it ended up, I think SAL is talked about too much.

SAL typically abates to let the peak season on in. It’s pretty much standard climatology 101. This year the outbreaks have been unimpressive into the meat of peak SAL season. Does that mean anything? Don’t know but it’s another indicator that’s quite anomalous right now along with basin SST’s. They probably go hand in hand to reach these anomalies. What else is there?

[Teban54]

Decent SAL outbreak in process this week......
https://i.ibb.co/hgqLj81/ec3.jpg

I find the Fox's Saharan dust graphics to be a bit exaggerating, according to this graphic and by looking at surface reports the current Saharan dust outbreaks are mostly average to below average in thickness.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0Yotfa.gif

SAL gets talked about A LOT on this forum, but so far the outbreaks havent been very strong, the last one was decent; but more like a normal level. I like your graphic better than the exaggerated one.

2020 had insane SAL's and look how it ended up, I think SAL is talked about too much.

Also, IIRC didn't 2017 have a big SAL outbreak a few days before Irma formed?

[Category5Kaiju]

I find the Fox's Saharan dust graphics to be a bit exaggerating, according to this graphic and by looking at surface reports the current Saharan dust outbreaks are mostly average to below average in thickness.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0Yotfa.gif

SAL gets talked about A LOT on this forum, but so far the outbreaks havent been very strong, the last one was decent; but more like a normal level. I like your graphic better than the exaggerated one.

2020 had insane SAL's and look how it ended up, I think SAL is talked about too much.

Also, IIRC didn't 2017 have a big SAL outbreak a few days before Irma formed?

In terms of dry air, SAL, while definitely not favorable for hurricanes, isn't necessarily an instant-death sentence; mid-level dry air is (see 2013 and 2022, for example). I feel like many people point to SAL for keeping activity low or the basin quiet, but there is an important distinction between SAL and mid-level dry air as they aren't exactly the same phenomena.

[NotSparta]

I find the Fox's Saharan dust graphics to be a bit exaggerating, according to this graphic and by looking at surface reports the current Saharan dust outbreaks are mostly average to below average in thickness.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0Yotfa.gif

SAL gets talked about A LOT on this forum, but so far the outbreaks havent been very strong, the last one was decent; but more like a normal level. I like your graphic better than the exaggerated one.

2020 had insane SAL's and look how it ended up, I think SAL is talked about too much.

SAL typically abates to let the peak season on in. It’s pretty much standard climatology 101. This year the outbreaks have been unimpressive into the meat of peak SAL season. Does that mean anything? Don’t know but it’s another indicator that’s quite anomalous right now along with basin SST’s. They probably go hand in hand to reach these anomalies. What else is there?

Low SAL probably goes hand in hand with the pattern of weak ridging we've had this year, but it doesn't seem like how strong it is means much of anything to the seasonal activity

[IsabelaWeather]

SAL gets talked about A LOT on this forum, but so far the outbreaks havent been very strong, the last one was decent; but more like a normal level. I like your graphic better than the exaggerated one.

2020 had insane SAL's and look how it ended up, I think SAL is talked about too much.

SAL typically abates to let the peak season on in. It’s pretty much standard climatology 101. This year the outbreaks have been unimpressive into the meat of peak SAL season. Does that mean anything? Don’t know but it’s another indicator that’s quite anomalous right now along with basin SST’s. They probably go hand in hand to reach these anomalies. What else is there?

Low SAL probably goes hand in hand with the pattern of weak ridging we've had this year, but it doesn't seem like how strong it is means much of anything to the seasonal activity

That last part, was my point haha. SAL will abate in several weeks and wont be talked much again until next June.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1678241958064447488



El Niño en este momento no es tan fuerte como se pensaba, parece

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1678241958064447488?t=wDsq8FIR5Ame8YPu_Z0rnQ&s=19
El Niño en este momento no es tan fuerte como se pensaba, parece

En Engles por favor

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1678241958064447488?t=wDsq8FIR5Ame8YPu_Z0rnQ&s=19
El Niño en este momento no es tan fuerte como se pensaba, parece

En Engles por favor

I take Spanish as a foreign language: “El Nino at this moment is not as strong as thought, it seems”

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1678241958064447488?t=wDsq8FIR5Ame8YPu_Z0rnQ&s=19
El Niño en este momento no es tan fuerte como se pensaba, parece

Great comparison of the EPAC and NATL to 2015, no wonder shear was much stronger across the Caribbean that year and the EPAC was about to produce its third Cat 4 by the middle of July.

[ThomasW]

For all the talk about how 93E "busted"... at least the EPAC can [*]get[*] invests right now. The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon! El Nino is here folks, as is about to be evidenced by 94E. I think my 11/4/1 forecast is well on track in the Atlantic.

[NotSparta]

For all the talk about how 93E "busted"... at least the EPAC can [*]get[*] invests right now. The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon! El Nino is here folks, as is about to be evidenced by 94E. I think my 11/4/1 forecast is well on track in the Atlantic.

Looks like someone forgot about Bret and Cindy already...

[ThomasW]

For all the talk about how 93E "busted"... at least the EPAC can [*]get[*] invests right now. The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon! El Nino is here folks, as is about to be evidenced by 94E. I think my 11/4/1 forecast is well on track in the Atlantic.

Looks like someone forgot about Bret and Cindy already...

So two storms that actually "busted"? Right. The pattern which supported those is gone too

[NotSparta]

For all the talk about how 93E "busted"... at least the EPAC can [*]get[*] invests right now. The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon! El Nino is here folks, as is about to be evidenced by 94E. I think my 11/4/1 forecast is well on track in the Atlantic.

Looks like someone forgot about Bret and Cindy already...

So two storms that actually "busted"? Right. The pattern which supported those is gone too

At least they could develop unlike 93E

[Hurricane2022]

The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon!

I Would say this is completely normal for July.... Occasionally the Atlantic has something this month and meanwhile the East Pacific produces multiple tropical systems throughout July as this was seen last year and also in 2021, 2019, 2018...

[Category5Kaiju]

For all the talk about how 93E "busted"... at least the EPAC can [*]get[*] invests right now. The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon! El Nino is here folks, as is about to be evidenced by 94E. I think my 11/4/1 forecast is well on track in the Atlantic.

Looks like someone forgot about Bret and Cindy already...

So two storms that actually "busted"? Right. The pattern which supported those is gone too

At least they formed in the MDR in June and lasted for more than 2 days when the vast majority of Atlantic seasons in the past never even saw that kind of phenomenon before

[ThomasW]

Looks like someone forgot about Bret and Cindy already...

So two storms that actually "busted"? Right. The pattern which supported those is gone too

At least they could develop unlike 93E

93E would've been designated if it was in the West Pacific

[NDG]

For all the talk about how 93E "busted"... at least the EPAC can [*]get[*] invests right now. The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon! El Nino is here folks, as is about to be evidenced by 94E. I think my 11/4/1 forecast is well on track in the Atlantic.

For El Nino "being here" the EPAC is below average so far (1/2 ACE).
Your forecast is even lower than in 2015, which by this time the EPAC was about to produce its third Cat 4.
So far compared to 2015 the Atlantic is seeing much less shear when back then it was already ripping across the Caribbean and MDR.

Edit: placed 2022 instead of 2023

[zzzh]

That was 2022.


Here is the U200 anomaly for this year. It does not look like what you'd expect for an El Nino at all .

[NDG]

:uarrow: That was 2022.
https://i.imgur.com/oy56NqK.gif
https://i.imgur.com/eIvsMhI.png
Here is the U200 anomaly for this year. It does not look like what you'd expect for an El Nino at all .

Thanks, I fixed it, not much difference between '22 & '23, lol.

Here's even a better comparison, season to date compared to 2015.

[ThomasW]

For all the talk about how 93E "busted"... at least the EPAC can [*]get[*] invests right now. The North Atlantic can't even manage a yellow MDR crayon! El Nino is here folks, as is about to be evidenced by 94E. I think my 11/4/1 forecast is well on track in the Atlantic.

For El Nino "being here" the EPAC is below average so far (1/2 ACE).
Your forecast is even lower than in 2015, which by this time the EPAC was about to produce its third Cat 4.
So far compared to 2015 the Atlantic is seeing much less shear when back then it was already ripping across the Caribbean and MDR.

Edit: placed 2022 instead of 2023
https://i.imgur.com/7yzceVP.jpg

Oh a double-pronged TUTT attack