2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[StormWeather]

This is for September 10th (Peak day) and is not common to see it without TC's on that particular day. I guess there are not many years that are like this in the archives.

https://i.imgur.com/bRVsWZs.png

The last time there were no TCs active on September 10th was in 2021. Tropical Storm Mindy had dissipated the day prior, and Hurricane Nicholas would form on September 12th.

[LarryWx]

336 Hour gfs ensembles, other than a short lived weak thing off a front along the Mid Atlantic, this looks more like June. Something at the tail end in the MDR, but not a strong signal (And not on operationals) One way I tell if we're active or not is if you can use the MLSP surface charts or percip models to find anything on the operational models, if you need to use the 850mb voracity to even find a hint, it's dead. Not even a hint of anything from 99L either.
https://i.imgur.com/f9T9ng2.png

Google Deep Mind Ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/L8sqKq1.png


Could switch up by the second half of September, but for now it's still about as quiet as late August could be in the Atlantic. The one wave that does show up in the MDR in the ensembles leaves Africa on Labor Day, but it's not in any operationals.

This kind of reminds me of the 2024 19 day lull of no storms during the first half of peak season.

[Stratton23]

Lol all the weather weenies on X calling the season over or a bust because models show nothing the next 2 weeks, give it some time, things should pick up in a big way after at the start of the 2nd week of september, probably will start seeibg models get excited then

[Steve]

Lol all the weather weenies on X calling the season over or a bust because models show nothing the next 2 weeks, give it some time, things should pick up in a big way after at the start of the 2nd week of september, probably will start seeibg models get excited then

LOL. People need their immediate gratification and have no attention spans. Is the season off to a kind of boring start as far as actual threats? Yeah. Does that have anything to do with what will happen? No. We always get some of that on this board when there are lulls. It's an opportunity to win money from people.