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Rainband

#781 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:I think that it is very early to make long range forecasts or proyections as there is not a tropical storm yet and the steering currents are weak so anything can happen in the short term from the TD weakening to an open wave to turn into a major cane and in terms of the track it can go erractic and move to centralamerica or the Yucatan Penninsula.What I am trying to say is that let's all take it easy and see how it all evolves in the next few days and when it turns into a storm then a more precise forecast can be made and then let's see how the troughs and ridges pan out to see if any part of the US will be affected by this system.So again let's calm down and see what mother nature has instore for us.
Amen :clap:
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#782 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:50 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:some colder cloud tops
Image

I'm sorry but I don't see anything really close to the center thats impressive.
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#783 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:50 pm

18Z plots- Wunderground's plots are Obsolete...
Image
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#784 Postby jhamps10 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:50 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:Really to me the whole thing actually looks worse than it did last night.


I agree, it looks the same to a little worse than last night.
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#785 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:50 pm

THead wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:
THead wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:I'm not sure what to make of the models. I honestly don't know whether to believe them or not.


Yeah, just stay tuned. I think with it being a weak storm now, and weak steering currents from what the pro's have been saying, the models will have difficulties. However those are tightly clustered.......


I Respectfully disagree, with it to be slow can that mean it can stay in a warm area such as the carribian and sort of suck as much energy as it can. But I think once it moves into the GOM at expect a pick up in speed.


Disagree with what?


That it could be a weak storm by weak steering currents.
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#786 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:51 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:some colder cloud tops
Image

I'm sorry but I don't see anything really close to the center thats impressive.


The twin cloud bursts near the center
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#787 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:53 pm

It looks more impressive to me...The LLC is becoming very compact in strong...In that deep convection is developing over it.
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#788 Postby jhamps10 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:53 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:some colder cloud tops
Image

I'm sorry but I don't see anything really close to the center thats impressive.


The twin cloud bursts near the center


Good point, I did not see those twin bubbles there, may just be a temp. flare up though. But diddn't it look better this morning?
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truballer#1

#789 Postby truballer#1 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:53 pm

Image
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#790 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:54 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:some colder cloud tops
Image

I'm sorry but I don't see anything really close to the center thats impressive.


The twin cloud bursts near the center

Yeah, I see it, but I've seen similar situations before in the last 24 hours, Not ready to get excited about it YET...
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truballer#1

#791 Postby truballer#1 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:54 pm

looks to me that models shifted west a lot
Last edited by truballer#1 on Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#792 Postby truballer#1 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:54 pm

I think moday is a day when itll intensify a lot when shear is better and dry out moves out
Last edited by truballer#1 on Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#793 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:54 pm

To me yes it did but that could just be me.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#794 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:55 pm

Loop the one over the Gulf

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#795 Postby El Nino » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:55 pm

Maybe you need to watch this:

Image
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#796 Postby THead » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:57 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:
THead wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:
THead wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:I'm not sure what to make of the models. I honestly don't know whether to believe them or not.


Yeah, just stay tuned. I think with it being a weak storm now, and weak steering currents from what the pro's have been saying, the models will have difficulties. However those are tightly clustered.......


I Respectfully disagree, with it to be slow can that mean it can stay in a warm area such as the carribian and sort of suck as much energy as it can. But I think once it moves into the GOM at expect a pick up in speed.


Disagree with what?


That it could be a weak storm by weak steering currents.


I said that is what the conditions are now.....and that may give the models some difficulties.
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#797 Postby tampaflwx » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:59 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looks more impressive to me...The LLC is becoming very compact in strong...In that deep convection is developing over it.


I agree. It is looking very organized with the LLC and incredible outer banding to support a large system. Earlier we saw that the storm lacked a definitive inner core but in the past several hours the storm has been spewing out deep convection from near the center. I think it is priming itself to begin intensifying and growing at a rapid pace.
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#798 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:01 pm

Ok. Sry just trying to find out the matter of slower movement in Caribbian and warm SST's can it strengthen very rapidly if movement is near 4 or 5mph?


now to 1001mb.
Last edited by Weatherfreak14 on Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#799 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:01 pm

El Nino wrote:Maybe you need to watch this:


It bears watching... but I've seen these flareups all day, only to die out again.
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#800 Postby WindRunner » Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:02 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:Ok. Sry just trying to find out the matter of slower movement in Caribbian and warm SST's can it strengthen very rapidly if movement is near 4 or 5mph?


Right now, the amount it strengthens won't be affected by its speed. However, if it gets to a Cat 2-3 or higher without speeding up, then the slow movement could result in some weakening or at least stop strengthening. This is because the cooler waters will be upwelled by the storm's strong winds.
Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Oct 16, 2005 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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