ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Should be 0.5C again this week, Nino 1+2 is at 1C. Of note this will be the 4th week in a row of 0.5C

[WeatherEmperor]

Should be 0.5C again this week, Nino 1+2 is at 1C. Of note this will be the 4th week in a row of 0.5C

Did 1+2 go up?


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[Ntxw]

Should be 0.5C again this week, Nino 1+2 is at 1C. Of note this will be the 4th week in a row of 0.5C

Did 1+2 go up?


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It went up a little bit from 0.8C the previous week. It has been hovering near +/- 1C for awhile after dipping down to 0.5C mid April after being 2.6C mid March

[NDG]

Noticed that most of the ECMWF's ensemble members are now in the 0C to +1.0C range during the the heart of the hurricane season. Trending towards a weaker El Nino and cooler Nino 1+2 than Nino 3.5

[TheStormExpert]

Noticed that most of the ECMWF's ensemble members are now in the 0C to +1.0C range during the the heart of the hurricane season. Trending towards a weaker El Nino and cooler Nino 1+2 than Nino 3.5

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 0odmtf.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... gby3u3.png

Euro may be hinting at a Modoki El Niño based on that SST configuration in the Equatorial Pacific.

[WeatherEmperor]

Should be 0.5C again this week, Nino 1+2 is at 1C. Of note this will be the 4th week in a row of 0.5C

Did 1+2 go up?


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It went up a little bit from 0.8C the previous week. It has been hovering near +/- 1C for awhile after dipping down to 0.5C mid April after being 2.6C mid March

All the forecast maps we are seeing are for 3.4. Do wr have any forecasts for 1+2 and if so how far up will temps go in this region?


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[LarryWx]

The SOI has been positive the last 3 days and that should continue for much of the next week or so. However, a sharp drop into negative territory is hinted at by the middle of next week based on a progged large drop in SLP at and all around Tahiti. Let's see if this actually looks to verify as this is a crucial time of year for ENSO.

[Ntxw]

Did 1+2 go up?


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It went up a little bit from 0.8C the previous week. It has been hovering near +/- 1C for awhile after dipping down to 0.5C mid April after being 2.6C mid March

All the forecast maps we are seeing are for 3.4. Do wr have any forecasts for 1+2 and if so how far up will temps go in this region?


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Nino 1+2 goes through wild, often quick swings abrubtly as evidenced in my post about March, April, and now. Forecasts for it are much the same and subject to errors more than other regions, except during a fully coupled ENSO event.

[Kingarabian]

Should be 0.5C again this week, Nino 1+2 is at 1C. Of note this will be the 4th week in a row of 0.5C

8 more weeks to go before we get our first Tri-Monthly.

[Kingarabian]

The SOI has been positive the last 3 days and that should continue for much of the next week or so. However, a sharp drop into negative territory is hinted at by the middle of next week based on a progged large drop in SLP at and all around Tahiti. Let's see if this actually looks to verify as this is a crucial time of year for ENSO.

Good to see you posting on here again Larry.

As we get out of MJO phase 2 and into phase 3, I think we'll see the SOI flip back negative by this weekend.

[NDG]

The SOI has been positive the last 3 days and that should continue for much of the next week or so. However, a sharp drop into negative territory is hinted at by the middle of next week based on a progged large drop in SLP at and all around Tahiti. Let's see if this actually looks to verify as this is a crucial time of year for ENSO.

Good to see you posting on here again Larry.

As we get out of MJO phase 2 and into phase 3, I think we'll see the SOI flip back negative by this weekend.

Before it flips back to negative wouldn't the MJO have to get to at least phase 4 if not phase 5?

Edit: More like phase 5 if not phase 6.

[Yellow Evan]

Didn't all the main models miss the epic Nino 1+2 warmth we saw a few month back?

[NDG]

Didn't all the main models miss the epic Nino 1+2 warmth we saw a few month back?

The Euro did not missed it, at one point.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/chart ... 2017053100

[WeatherEmperor]

Didn't all the main models miss the epic Nino 1+2 warmth we saw a few month back?

Is there any chance Nino 1+2 has strong warming in the next month or two?


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[Hurricaneman]

Didn't all the main models miss the epic Nino 1+2 warmth we saw a few month back?

Is there any chance Nino 1+2 has strong warming in the next month or two?


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There's always a chance

[Kingarabian]

The SOI has been positive the last 3 days and that should continue for much of the next week or so. However, a sharp drop into negative territory is hinted at by the middle of next week based on a progged large drop in SLP at and all around Tahiti. Let's see if this actually looks to verify as this is a crucial time of year for ENSO.

Good to see you posting on here again Larry.

As we get out of MJO phase 2 and into phase 3, I think we'll see the SOI flip back negative by this weekend.

Before it flips back to negative wouldn't the MJO have to get to at least phase 4 if not phase 5?

Edit: More like phase 5 if not phase 6.

At Phase 3 it starts to have lower pressures over the pacific islands, including Tahiti.
I'm not sure exactly how LongPaddock calculates the SOI since they wont return my emails
But The SOI drops at the slightest deviation where Darwin pressures are greater than Tahiti (even though the pressures there at Tahiti are higher than normal), or when the pressures at Tahiti are lower than Darwin's, despite at times the pressures at Darwin being higher than normal.

[LarryWx]

The SOI has been positive the last 3 days and that should continue for much of the next week or so. However, a sharp drop into negative territory is hinted at by the middle of next week based on a progged large drop in SLP at and all around Tahiti. Let's see if this actually looks to verify as this is a crucial time of year for ENSO.

Good to see you posting on here again Larry.

As we get out of MJO phase 2 and into phase 3, I think we'll see the SOI flip back negative by this weekend.

Thanks, King! I normally post little during the off season since I usually then don't have too much worth contributing. Often this time of year gets me going due to the excellent ENSO related discussions here and this time of year often being crucial for the subsequent summer/fall/winter for ENSO.

Today's guidance isn't as strong on the hint of a large drop in the SLP at Tahiti around the middle of next week. That is still a good ways out and, therefore, large day to day fluctuations this far out aren't a surprise. Let's see how it looks over the next few days. By Fri, there should be a much clearer picture of how Tahiti looks for mid next week. Regardless, I think the SOI will remain mainly positive at least for the rest of the week and quite possibly into at least early next week.

[cycloneye]

The trade winds for days.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864553441401741313

[tarheelprogrammer]

The trade winds for days.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864553441401741313

That should help push El Nino along right?

[LarryWx]

The trade winds for days.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864553441401741313

That should help push El Nino along right?

Actually, stronger trade winds along the equatorial Pacific (in the ENSO regions), which partially correlate with more positive SOI's, are opposite of what is most associated with the development of El Nino. So, this pattern would need to change to weaker trades (these partially correlate with more negative SOI's) or better yet westerly wind bursts for a more hospitable environment for El Nino to develop/get stronger.