ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The trade winds for days.


That should help push El Nino along right?

The opposite occurs as trade winds dont allow the waters to warm.

[Kingarabian]

The trade winds for days.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864553441401741313[tweet]

That should help push El Nino along right?

Trades don't help an El-Nino as they promote cooling at the subsurface.

[Kingarabian]

But don't forget that we had a trade burst in March and it didn't do much to cool the surface.

[WeatherEmperor]

But don't forget that we had a trade burst in March and it didn't do much to cool the surface.

Correct on this. But it is no longer about cooling the sub surface. Its about how much longer these trades will delay this El Nino event because we can all see its not in any hurry to get going.

These little trade bursts no matter how weak are only delaying the eventual El Nino in my opinion.


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[Kingarabian]

But don't forget that we had a trade burst in March and it didn't do much to cool the surface.

Correct on this. But it is no longer about cooling the sub surface. Its about how much longer these trades will delay this El Nino event because we can all see its not in any hurry to get going.

These little trade bursts no matter how weak are only delaying the eventual El Nino in my opinion.


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As Ntxw said, these trades will likely mean we won't see a moderate El-Nino for the peak hurricane months. But, we've been at warm neutral since February, and currently, we've been at 0.5C for 4 weeks straight. So if the status-quo continues, there's a good chance we see an official weak El-Nino by the peak of hurricane season.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

How about that large cooling area in the N Pac? Where did that come from. The trades should deflate Nino a bit. Its about the time where we will see what happens during prime hurricane season. Watching it closely.

[WeatherEmperor]

But don't forget that we had a trade burst in March and it didn't do much to cool the surface.

Correct on this. But it is no longer about cooling the sub surface. Its about how much longer these trades will delay this El Nino event because we can all see its not in any hurry to get going.

These little trade bursts no matter how weak are only delaying the eventual El Nino in my opinion.


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As Ntxw said, these trades will likely mean we won't see a moderate El-Nino for the peak hurricane months. But, we've been at warm neutral since February, and currently, we've been at 0.5C for 4 weeks straight. So if the status-quo continues, there's a good chance we see an official weak El-Nino by the peak of hurricane season.

0.5C+ at 3.4 is important but not as important as 1+2 which is not warm enough currently to bring the traditional Atlantic unfavorable conditions we are accustomed to seeing in a typical El Nino. It is a very warm 1+2 that causes subsidence and ripping windshear in the Gulf, WC and portions of the W Atlantic. The WC was a dead zone in 2015 as an example. So far 1+2 is showing no signs of blowing up into full El Nino mode...but that can change.

Even the full time experts agree this is a very complicated Nino forecast. Even I agree there will be an El Nino in some capacity...but honestly there is no way of knowing how soon Nino effects will be felt in the ATL. Most of us are thinking more of the effects of the Nino rather than the If/When it develops. This is what I am talking about in terms of Nino delaying. Not in its formation but in the effects in the ATL. Nobody knows the answer to that and only time will tell.


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[Kingarabian]

Correct on this. But it is no longer about cooling the sub surface. Its about how much longer these trades will delay this El Nino event because we can all see its not in any hurry to get going.

These little trade bursts no matter how weak are only delaying the eventual El Nino in my opinion.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

As Ntxw said, these trades will likely mean we won't see a moderate El-Nino for the peak hurricane months. But, we've been at warm neutral since February, and currently, we've been at 0.5C for 4 weeks straight. So if the status-quo continues, there's a good chance we see an official weak El-Nino by the peak of hurricane season.

0.5C+ at 3.4 is important but not as important as 1+2 which is not warm enough currently to bring the traditional Atlantic unfavorable conditions we are accustomed to seeing in a typical El Nino. It is a very warm 1+2 that causes subsidence and ripping windshear in the Gulf, WC and portions of the W Atlantic. The WC was a dead zone in 2015 as an example. So far 1+2 is showing no signs of blowing up into full El Nino mode...but that can change.

Even the full time experts agree this is a very complicated Nino forecast. Even I agree there will be an El Nino in some capacity...but honestly there is no way of knowing how soon Nino effects will be felt in the ATL. Most of us are thinking more of the effects of the Nino rather than the If/When it develops. This is what I am talking about in terms of Nino delaying. Not in its formation but in the effects in the ATL. Nobody knows the answer to that and only time will tell.


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I agree that the forecast is complicated and that it truly is a 50/50 odd of seeing an El Nino or not. I also agree that Nino 1+2 likely has a greater influence than the other regions. However according to the raw data from the CPC, despite its volatility, Nino 1+2 has been at moderate strength @ an average of +1.5C since January, and +0.8C since the beginning of April (when we last had our trade burst). This means that 1+2 has been at moderate strength for almost 6 months now. Whether this trend will continue or not into the start and peak of the hurricane season remains to be seen. But it's worth noting that Nino 1+2 has been at impressive moderate strength without the presence of a classic warm pool. I'm actually confused on why waters at and under Nino 1+2 are so warm. Its completely against the norm.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The trade winds for days.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864553441401741313

That should help push El Nino along right?

Actually, stronger trade winds along the equatorial Pacific (in the ENSO regions), which partially correlate with more positive SOI's, are opposite of what is most associated with the development of El Nino. So, this pattern would need to change to weaker trades (these partially correlate with more negative SOI's) or better yet westerly wind bursts for a more hospitable environment for El Nino to develop/get stronger.

Yeah I didn't realize that. Thanks for explaining it in better detail. I need to read the article I posted on here a few days ago.

[cycloneye]

The Nino killer.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864906187837505536



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864906305680625664

[stormlover2013]

what are the tweets saying it won't let me see them..

[cycloneye]

what are the tweets saying it won't let me see them..

@MJVentrice Seeing potential for a strong +8 m/s trade surge to take place over the western-central Pacific in the Week 2 time frame.


@MJVentrice aka... the Nino killer.

[Alyono]

could those types of anomalies bring la niña into play?

[Hurricaneman]

could those types of anomalies bring la niña into play?

Probably not but an El Niño may not come on or if it does it may be a madoki

[WeatherEmperor]

But the last trade surge in March did almost nothing to stop Nino from developing. What makes this one different? I cannot read these maps but is the forecast for the next trade surge supposed to be much stronger??


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[Yellow Evan]

could those types of anomalies bring la niña into play?

Have we ever gone from legit warm neutral to la nina in a year?

[hcane27]

I believe July 2009/ July 2010 would be just such a case.

[Kingarabian]

could those types of anomalies bring la niña into play?

Chances for a La-Nina in 2017 are almost 0%.

[Kingarabian]

Latest subsurface frame from May 13th shows that the warm pool continues to rapidly make up for lost ground in early Spring (thanks to those recent WWB's) . Ocean looks really welcoming for an El-Nino all of a sudden. That once solid cold pool @ 140W in March/April is disappearing fast as if it was never there.

In regards to the winds, the SOI should be switching back to a negative state soon. If I were a betting man, I wouldn't put money on more trades after this current burst.

[weathaguyry]

Latest subsurface frame from May 13th shows that the warm pool continues to rapidly make up for lost ground in early Spring (thanks to those recent WWB's) . Ocean looks really welcoming for an El-Nino all of a sudden. That once solid cold pool @ 140W in March/April is disappearing fast as if it was never there.

In regards to the winds, the SOI should be switching back to a negative state soon. If I were a betting man, I wouldn't put money on more trades after this current burst.

If the trade surge forms like the models say it will, I wouldn't be surprised to see another cold pool form near and right under the surface at 180.