ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[weathaguyry]

could those types of anomalies bring la niña into play?

I don't think a La Nina will form, but now the chance opens up for a straight up neutral event as opposed to a warm-neutral/borderline El Nino

[Kazmit]

I found this channel a few weeks ago. It's great to watch the weekly updates while conditions change as we near the start of the season.

[Kingarabian]

[ig]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif[/img]

Latest subsurface frame from May 13th shows that the warm pool continues to rapidly make up for lost ground in early Spring (thanks to those recent WWB's) . Ocean looks really welcoming for an El-Nino all of a sudden. That once solid cold pool @ 140W in March/April is disappearing fast as if it was never there.

In regards to the winds, the SOI should be switching back to a negative state soon. If I were a betting man, I wouldn't put money on more trades after this current burst.

If the trade surge forms like the models say it will, I wouldn't be surprised to see another cold pool form near and right under the surface at 180.

If the warm pool continues expanding east as quickly as it currently is + strengthens and becomes a classic warm pool, I don't think we'll be seeing easterly wind induced cold pools forming anymore. Rather, we would see trade winds weaken/brush-off the anomalies within the warm pool trying to reach the surface as we saw in 2012/2014. Of course if we have westerly winds, then we'll see the warm pool being enforced.

Just really depends on if the warm pool gets the job done in actually expanding east.

[Hammy]

Are we pretty much looking at a 50/50 chance of El Nino at this point?

[Hurricaneman]

Are we pretty much looking at a 50/50 chance of El Nino at this point?

Yep

[Yellow Evan]

Are we pretty much looking at a 50/50 chance of El Nino at this point?

Truer words could not be spoken.

[weathaguyry]

Wow, with the 30 day SOI average coming in above -6, and with this new trade surge forecasted by the ECMWF, I really think that the chances of an El Nino are quickly fading. I agree that there is a chance that we could have a borderline Nino for the ASO timeframe, but I honestly think it's too little, too late, because even though the warm pool in the subsurface is extensive to some degree, the "bullseye" of it is at 150m deep and still back at the dateline, if Nino was truly on the brink of getting going, I would think that there would be a nice subsurface stream of +1-2 C waters stretching throughout the subsurface under 120W-160W.

[Hammy]

Wow, with the 30 day SOI average coming in above -6, and with this new trade surge forecasted by the ECMWF, I really think that the chances of an El Nino are quickly fading. I agree that there is a chance that we could have a borderline Nino for the ASO timeframe, but I honestly think it's too little, too late, because even though the warm pool in the subsurface is extensive to some degree, the "bullseye" of it is at 150m deep and still back at the dateline, if Nino was truly on the brink of getting going, I would think that there would be a nice subsurface stream of +1-2 C waters stretching throughout the subsurface under 120W-160W.

Given where the warm subsurface temps are, I think this points to a Modoki event should an El Nino materialize to start with.

[Kingarabian]

Wow, with the 30 day SOI average coming in above -6, and with this new trade surge forecasted by the ECMWF, I really think that the chances of an El Nino are quickly fading. I agree that there is a chance that we could have a borderline Nino for the ASO timeframe, but I honestly think it's too little, too late, because even though the warm pool in the subsurface is extensive to some degree, the "bullseye" of it is at 150m deep and still back at the dateline, if Nino was truly on the brink of getting going, I would think that there would be a nice subsurface stream of +1-2 C waters stretching throughout the subsurface under 120W-160W.

Remember to not get caught up temporarily oscillations. Models show a real negative drop into June

[Kingarabian]

Wow, with the 30 day SOI average coming in above -6, and with this new trade surge forecasted by the ECMWF, I really think that the chances of an El Nino are quickly fading. I agree that there is a chance that we could have a borderline Nino for the ASO timeframe, but I honestly think it's too little, too late, because even though the warm pool in the subsurface is extensive to some degree, the "bullseye" of it is at 150m deep and still back at the dateline, if Nino was truly on the brink of getting going, I would think that there would be a nice subsurface stream of +1-2 C waters stretching throughout the subsurface under 120W-160W.

Given where the warm subsurface temps are, I think this points to a Modoki event should an El Nino materialize to start with.

Can't be a Modoki event unless something changes. Despite the lack of deep warm anomalies under these regions, Ninos 1+2/3 continues to come in higher than Nino 3.4.

[RL3AO]

The trade winds for days.

That should help push El Nino along right?

Stronger trade winds (negative zonal flow values) -> more upwelling -> Opposite of leading to El Nino.

[WeatherEmperor]

The trade winds for days.

That should help push El Nino along right?

Stronger trade winds (negative zonal flow values) -> more upwelling -> Opposite of leading to El Nino.

I am interested in seeing how this trade burst will affect things. The last one from March didnt do much of anything to the region. Any indication if this burst will be stronger than the last?


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[TeamPlayersBlue]

Something else to note. There will be a very strong high pressure in the SouthEastern pacific ocean off the coast of SA. These winds are just outside of the zone observed in the pic above, but i wouldnt doubt this high pressure will effect temps in the nino 1+2 region, possibly other regions as it moves from the west. They should drop temps.

[cycloneye]

Weak El Nino for ASO period is what the consensus (Yellow Line) of dynamical and statistical ENSO models have for the Mid-May update.

[weathaguyry]

SOI 90- Day average is -2.64
30- Day average is -4.34
Today's value was 6.91

[weathaguyry]

[WeatherEmperor]

CFS is backing off on El Nino from last month's prediction.

April's forecast:


May's newly released forecast:



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[GeneratorPower]

The trend being my friend and all, I think we have an upcoming La Nada.

[Ntxw]

The trend being my friend and all, I think we have an upcoming La Nada.

Thus far El Neutral warm ENSO. Still haven't seen the weeklies dip below 0.5C yet

[WeatherEmperor]

The trend being my friend and all, I think we have an upcoming La Nada.

Thus far El Neutral warm ENSO. Still haven't seen the weeklies dip below 0.5C yet

If the CFS Ensemble Mean is correct, it will remain +0.5C until late July / early August.


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