ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

The CFS has been pretty bad.

[WeatherEmperor]

The CFS has been pretty bad.

The POAMA from a couple weeks ago is even lower than CFS's forecast. Is Poama bad as well?


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[Kingarabian]

The CFS has been pretty bad.

The POAMA from a couple weeks ago is even lower than CFS's forecast. Is Poama bad as well?


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The POAMA is fine. The POAMA and the CFS are not the only models that are showing weak Nino/warm Neutral by the way. The CFS's problem is that it's run everyday. So it comes with a lot of variations.

[Kingarabian]

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[cycloneye]

All ENSO regions are pointing down on this 19 of May.Someone said earlier in the thread that every day that has a delay about El Nino being present is getting more and more late for any negative effects for the North Atlantic season from warm ENSO for the peak months of ASO.

Nino 1+2



Nino 3



Nino 3.4



Nino 4

[Hurricaneman]

GFS continues to show a WWB forming.

In the Indian Ocean maybe but not in the pacific

[Kingarabian]

[img]http:/i.imgur.com/6rypUCH.gif[/img]

GFS continues to show a WWB forming.

In the Indian Ocean maybe but not in the pacific

Oi. Forgot to look at the coordinates . Thank you for the correction.

[Kingarabian]

All ENSO regions are pointing down on this 19 of May.Someone said earlier in the thread that every day that has a delay about El Nino being present is getting more and more late for any negative effects for the North Atlantic season from warm ENSO for the peak months of ASO.

I'm not sure if I'm reading the buoys right, but it seems to show Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 warmer:

[Kazmit]

Wow, Niño 1+2 has taken quite a plunge, and the other regions also seem to be on a negative trend as well. Yet another holdup for the chances of an El Niño forming.

[Yellow Evan]

Could be an artificial blip like what we saw in November 2012 and June 2014.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,I think we have to wait to the big Kelvin Wave to come if it does so soon to have a more clear picture if El Nino will come in the next few months.This ESRL graphic shows a different thing than the TAO one.

[Kingarabian]

Wow, Niño 1+2 has taken quite a plunge, and the other regions also seem to be on a negative trend as well. Yet another holdup for the chances of an El Niño forming.

Right on. Even earlier this year we saw Nino 3.4 jump to near +1.0C while the buoys showed +0.4C.The satellite SST estimates have been running below the buoy values for the past 2 weeks.

[WeatherEmperor]

Wow, Niño 1+2 has taken quite a plunge, and the other regions also seem to be on a negative trend as well. Yet another holdup for the chances of an El Niño forming.

Right on. Even earlier this year we saw Nino 3.4 jump to near +1.0C while the buoys showed +0.4C.The satellite SST estimates have been running below the buoy values for the past 2 weeks.

Sorry if this is a dumb question but which is correct the satellites or the buoy's?


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[SouthFloridian92]

Modoki el nino is a possibility.

[Kingarabian]

Wow, Niño 1+2 has taken quite a plunge, and the other regions also seem to be on a negative trend as well. Yet another holdup for the chances of an El Niño forming.

Right on. Even earlier this year we saw Nino 3.4 jump to near +1.0C while the buoys showed +0.4C.The satellite SST estimates have been running below the buoy values for the past 2 weeks.

Sorry if this is a dumb question but which is correct the satellites or the buoy's?


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The CPC uses the buoys in their weekly updates. That's because they're raw real life values. The SST's like the ones you see on TropicalTidbits.com from CDAS are satellite estimates. They work well but sometimes they can be very erroneous.

[dexterlabio]

If there is a lowering chance of El Nino then IMO there is even lower chance of modoki El Nino forming. If the current trend keeps up then we might be going all neutral throughout the year. Although one could argue that cold ENSO events will more often come back to back after a strong El Nino (2015).

[cycloneye]

Mini tweetstorm by JB with his latest take.He thinks is going to be Modoki Weak to maybe Moderate El Nino.He says like 2006.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/865908705589686272





 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/865908969180512259




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/865911289746423809

[NDG]

The SOI has been positive the last 3 days and that should continue for much of the next week or so. However, a sharp drop into negative territory is hinted at by the middle of next week based on a progged large drop in SLP at and all around Tahiti. Let's see if this actually looks to verify as this is a crucial time of year for ENSO.

Good to see you posting on here again Larry.

As we get out of MJO phase 2 and into phase 3, I think we'll see the SOI flip back negative by this weekend.

Before it flips back to negative wouldn't the MJO have to get to at least phase 4 if not phase 5?

Edit: More like phase 5 if not phase 6.

As I thought, it will take a little while longer for the SOI to go back to negative, at least another 7-10 days if the Euro is correct with its MJO forecast.

20 May 2017 1013.29 1009.50 17.33 -3.18

[NDG]

Big time cool down this week for Niño 1+2 & Niño 3 if CDAS is correct.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... obal_1.png

[TheStormExpert]

2006 wasn't a Modoki El Niño, or was it?