ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: 2006 wasn't a Modoki El Niño, or was it?

2006 was not a modoki during it's lifetime

[TheAustinMan]

:uarrow: 2006 wasn't a Modoki El Niño, or was it?

Just looking at the September 11, 2006 anomaly chart, things certainly didn't look like a Modoki. The Nino1+2 region was quite warm.

[cycloneye]

JB has to check the facts before posting tweets.

[tolakram]

Watch out for confirmation bias.

[Alyono]

JB must be using alternative facts like the Indo judges used to convict AHOK

[WeatherEmperor]

Big time cool down this week for Niño 1+2 & Niño 3 if CDAS is correct.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... obal_1.png

I believe CDAS shows SST's using satellite estimates...which aren't always correct. The buoy analysis shows temps much warmer than indicated by CDAS.

[weathaguyry]

Is this another cold pool forming?

[Kingarabian]

Bastardi doesn't seem to know what a proper Modoki Nino is, according to its author. He's mentioned it in the wrong way numerous times. But he's not the only one to mix it up. A lot of people do.

However his analysis on El-Nino forming has merit. The SOI according to the EPS weeklies will tank again from June into July.

[cycloneye]

After more that 24 hours of my post of the "All ENSO Regions Down" was made,they continue to do so although 3.4 looks less pronounced and seems to be more stable around +0.2C.Nino 1+2 continues the freefall with the latest as of this post at -0.5C.

[Kazmit]

What a drop.

[Kingarabian]

What a drop.

I'm not seeing glaring cool anomalies at the subsurface of 1+2 and the other Nino regions, and the easterlies have yet to reach these regions. So I'm not sure if these drops hold any water.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing to watch is the Monday update on the NOAA site, if it shows the drop too it could change what might happen in the ENSO in the long run

[WeatherEmperor]

What a drop.

.com/m83gwj.png[/img]

I'm not seeing glaring cool anomalies at the subsurface of 1+2 and the other Nino regions, and the easterlies have yet to reach these regions. So I'm not sure if these drops hold any water.

Here is an image from May 18th. The image below does not support the cooling from the other image but as others have said lets wait until Mondays update to see if it changed.





Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

@EdValleeWx
Strong easterlies continue along the dateline through early June. #ElNino will continue to struggle-

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/866267750787895296




@akshaysampathk1Replying to @EdValleeWx
The E HEM forcing status quo will reinforce again in June for summer which should eventually stop #ElNino attempt.

 https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/866281290902810624

[weathaguyry]

Could those winds support warming in the Atlantic?

[LarryWx]

Could those winds support warming in the Atlantic?

Those strong trade winds aren't directly related to the Atlantic. (I suppose, however, that this could POSSIBLY have an indirect significant effect on the Atlantic.)

[LarryWx]

Good to see you posting on here again Larry.

As we get out of MJO phase 2 and into phase 3, I think we'll see the SOI flip back negative by this weekend.

Before it flips back to negative wouldn't the MJO have to get to at least phase 4 if not phase 5?

Edit: More like phase 5 if not phase 6.

As I thought, it will take a little while longer for the SOI to go back to negative, at least another 7-10 days if the Euro is correct with its MJO forecast.

20 May 2017 1013.29 1009.50 17.33 -3.18

Ever since that one Euro run from about a week ago showing a sharp drop to well below normal SLP's at Tahiti, none have suggested an imminent return to solid -SOI's. We'll likely have a fall during the next couple of days, which MAY dip slightly into -SOI territory, but even if so they then look to quickly rise back into +SOI territory for the balance of May (at least) IF the latest guidance is correct.

[Kazmit]

All regions seem to have hit rock bottom.

[weathaguyry]

Could those winds support warming in the Atlantic?

Those strong trade winds aren't directly related to the Atlantic. (I suppose, however, that this could POSSIBLY have an indirect significant effect on the Atlantic.)

Sorry, I wasn't being clear enough, I meant that patch of Orange and Red east of 60W, is that the type of wind that promotes warming?

[NDG]

Could those winds support warming in the Atlantic?

Those strong trade winds aren't directly related to the Atlantic. (I suppose, however, that this could POSSIBLY have an indirect significant effect on the Atlantic.)

Sorry, I wasn't being clear enough, I meant that patch of Orange and Red east of 60W, is that the type of wind that promotes warming?

Yes, but that's only for the equatorial Atlantic.