ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

The TAO array program will be eliminated? Hopefully not because is an important tool to get data about ENSO.

@MichaelRLowry
Floored to see proposed FY18 @NOAA cuts effectively kill off how we observe/monitor El Niño (TAO) & tsunamis (DART)


[]https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/867383507399704578[/tweet]

@MJVentrice
By removing @NOAA's TAO buoy array, it will put the meteorological community back decades on advancing seasonal predictions


[]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/867404309729878019[/tweet]

We're screwed if they remove the buoys. Just look at the current satellite estimates and how off they currently are compared to the CPC's SST's which are based off buoys.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw great CPC blog to read.What is your take? My take is 2017 ENSO forecast is nothing easy to do.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ing-coffee

Ken: I agree, there are a couple of papers pointing to the strong easterly wind pulse in June 2014 as the proximate cause of the demise of the expected El Niño that year (refs 3 and 4). But from what I’ve seen, the coupling was dead earlier in May. This year we have a “reverse” evolution: We have warming in the east Pacific now and almost no westerly wind anomalies or corresponding convective activity. In 2014 we started with strong westerlies and then they stopped. The fact that this year the warming has kept on going despite apparently less favorable conditions suggests to me that something else is helping out. Perhaps it is that we’re already in a warm decadal phase, in contrast to 2014…

This right here makes a lot of sense, and I'm glad a pro-met brought it up. We've discussed it in length on this thread that we're getting Nino values despite the easterlies. The only explanation is that we're in a warm PDO phase, that 2014 and previous were not in.

[Ntxw]

Great discussion from the CPC folks and I agree with everything said above. All of the easterlies and ocean temps below suggest we should not even be as warm as we are but the background state favors the warmth over true cool conditions. So while we are quick to demise the warm surface, if you look in context it shouldn't even be happening yet it is.

[Kingarabian]

Cross section of the subsurface has yet to update but it'll be interesting to see if these easterlies have created yet another cold pool.

[WeatherEmperor]

Cross section of the subsurface has yet to update but it'll be interesting to see if these easterlies have created yet another cold pool.

I doubt cold pools developed but even when they were there in the past, it hardly made a dent in the surface positive anomalies.


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[Hunabku]

Great discussion from the CPC folks and I agree with everything said above. All of the easterlies and ocean temps below suggest we should not even be as warm as we are but the background state favors the warmth over true cool conditions. So while we are quick to demise the warm surface, if you look in context it shouldn't even be happening yet it is.

Yup great read! Also we need to consider we are on the tail end of warm kelvin wave that effects subsurface conditions significantly.

[weathaguyry]

Cross section of the subsurface has yet to update but it'll be interesting to see if these easterlies have created yet another cold pool.

I doubt cold pools developed but even when they were there in the past, it hardly made a dent in the surface positive anomalies.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

That is true, but it also put a halt to the expansion of the subsurface warm anomalies.

[Yellow Evan]

Cross section of the subsurface has yet to update but it'll be interesting to see if these easterlies have created yet another cold pool.

I doubt cold pools developed but even when they were there in the past, it hardly made a dent in the surface positive anomalies.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

That is true, but it also put a halt to the expansion of the subsurface warm anomalies.

Typical of this time of year. The big question is whether a warm pool will develop in the sub-surface in around July. That will determine whether we get an El Nino or not.

[Kingarabian]

I doubt cold pools developed but even when they were there in the past, it hardly made a dent in the surface positive anomalies.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

That is true, but it also put a halt to the expansion of the subsurface warm anomalies.

Typical of this time of year. The big question is whether a warm pool will develop in the sub-surface in around July. That will determine whether we get an El Nino or not.

After catching up and keeping with 2002, 2004, and 2009 at the subsurface, this Nino is beginning to run late if that -2 anomaly is true. A WWB has to get going in June if there's to be a Nino by the peak of the season. GFS and Euro continue and are locking in on a pretty big SOI drop in June, so a WWB should get going then.

[Hunabku]

The TAO array program will be eliminated? Hopefully not because is an important tool to get data about ENSO.
We're screwed if they remove the buoys. Just look at the current satellite estimates and how off they currently are compared to the CPC's SST's which are based off buoys.

Removing the buoys is crazy.
If our planet was the starship enterprise, then the equatorial pacific would be equivalent to the ship's warp core, and of course it's essential to know what's going on in there with as much data and accuracy as possible.

Captain all the sensors are down, and she can't take another hit (of stupidity) like that one.

Edit: Speaking of the warp core: here is another view on it. Animation of sea surface height anomalies 11-12-2015 (at the height of nino SSHAs) to 5-8-2017. Notice the SSHAs seem to have bottomed out before May 8th 2017 and may be building again. If we were headed into La Nina, generally we wouldn't expect SSHAs to be this pronounced and holding steady or growing a bit.

[Hunabku]

If it wasn't for our positive PDO, then the SSHAs of May 2017 could have looked a whole lot more like the SSHAs of May 1999 – after the previous super nino. Typically after a super nino, SSHAs lower significantly into a strong nina state.



To a lesser extent than the PDO, i think the non-linear nature of pacific ocean warming is having a more significant ramping effect than NOAA's 30 year linear averaging accounts for. So a greater tendency for stronger and longer nino states. This does seem to be the trend because we've seen 3 super ninos since '82, which has got to be a some serious sigma deviation from the years prior to '82.

As a point of clarification –> like the atmosphere, ocean temperatures along equatorial regions are heating at a slower rate than ocean temps in mid latitudes - which are again heating slower than polar latitudes. This does not affect my thinking that the rate of equatorial ocean heat content change is increasing non-linearly, but I cannot prove it because I have not found data of ocean heat content change for equatorial regions, only for all ocean combined. Sorry, I know I've posted the following before, but it's what i'm talking about.

[dexterlabio]

Typical of this time of year. The big question is whether a warm pool will develop in the sub-surface in around July. That will determine whether we get an El Nino or not.

After catching up and keeping with 2002, 2004, and 2009 at the subsurface, this Nino is beginning to run late if that -2 anomaly is true. A WWB has to get going in June if there's to be a Nino by the peak of the season. GFS and Euro continue and are locking in on a pretty big SOI drop in June, so a WWB should get going then.

Looks like there will be a big MJO crossing WPAC in mid June, something to look at if an El Nino were to appear later this year.

[dexterlabio]

^Speaking of MJO, I haven't seen the latest MJO forecast yet. The CPC MJO update was only up to May 21.

[stormlover2013]

I am not a pro but guys lets be honest everything I have been seeing el nino really isn't going to happen during hurricane season....

[weathaguyry]

I am not a pro but guys lets be honest everything I have been seeing el nino really isn't going to happen during hurricane season....

I agree, I think that maybe around the NDJ time frame something weak may form, but I'm thinking warm neutral for most of the hurricane season, maybe even closer to neutral if the POAMA model is correct and a cold pool really is establishing itself again.

[stormlover2013]

but who knows I could be wrong, but with what I've been reading it looks like it won't happen so Active season looks likely..

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/867730061432164352

[Hunabku]

but who knows I could be wrong, but with what I've been reading it looks like it won't happen so Active season looks likely..

Certainly Nino not happening is looking more likely. But as we've discussed here, that does not 'guarantee' an active season. In favor of a nino bust are the trade bursts that look to continue in the near term. However, we need to keep an eye on how the MJO factors in and watch out for WWBs that send downwelling kelvin wave pulses - the life-blood for building nino. The September height of hurricane season is 3 1/2 months away and a lot can change between now and then. As Ntxw and I were indicating, the following conversation is a good read on how enso is developing and may develop - > https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-forecasters-offices-getting-coffee

[Yellow Evan]

I am not a pro but guys lets be honest everything I have been seeing el nino really isn't going to happen during hurricane season....

I agree, I think that maybe around the NDJ time frame something weak may form, but I'm thinking warm neutral for most of the hurricane season, maybe even closer to neutral if the POAMA model is correct and a cold pool really is establishing itself again.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay ... _EQ_5d.gif

We're close to El Nino as it is. Regardless, the difference between a weak El Nino or a warm neutral is likely to be very small, so an "active" season will/will not happen no matter whether this gets declared an El Nino (unless we get more of a true El Nino base state like we saw in 2015, in which the affects of the ATL are likely to be quite hostile).

[Ntxw]

I am not a pro but guys lets be honest everything I have been seeing el nino really isn't going to happen during hurricane season....

I agree, I think that maybe around the NDJ time frame something weak may form, but I'm thinking warm neutral for most of the hurricane season, maybe even closer to neutral if the POAMA model is correct and a cold pool really is establishing itself again.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay ... _EQ_5d.gif

We're close to El Nino as it is. Regardless, the difference between a weak El Nino or a warm neutral is likely to be very small, so an "active" season will/will not happen regardless (unless we get more of a true El Nino base state).

I agree, does a few tenths of a degree over a span of several months averaged really make much of a difference? I doubt 0.6C makes much of a change from 0.4C. I think those shear maps would be better distinguishing strength of ENSO.

Definitely no 2015 however