Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Opal Storm, i tkink the same as my previous posts:"
Be calm, no TD will arrive right now , we have time for that... my friends don't worry about, things will change a little bit in less than two months only one thing to do: tighten your teeths "lol
Wait and see more than decents waves, more organized with more conducive conditions , and after that we wil see what really happens for this season
;

[RL3AO]

I'm wondering why that convection is so far north.

[Gustywind]

Maybe the High pressure on this region is more to the north, working in tandem in theory with the ITCZ.... keeping the ITCZ more norther, and "placing" the waves more to the north ...in my humble opinion. . If somebody can help us, answers and thoughts are welcomed

[Category 5]

Way too early to be looking this far out for anything, but these waves give us a good indication that the season is about to get rollin'.

Waves like this though can become tropical systems if they make it to the Caribbean or GOM. The wave the produced Allison exited Africa on may 21st. This seems to be quite uncommon though, since Allison was the only example I could find for now. I'm sure it's happened before, but I wouldn't bet a penny on it happening here.

[Marilyn]

Welcome Lena

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION SHOWS THE POSSIBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE BUT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL ROTATION NEAR
7N18W. ANY CONVECTION IS 3WITHIN THE ITCZ.

[drezee]

Still there:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 6N. AREA OF
DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N-9N BETWEEN WAVE AXIS AND 30W.


Looks great on the visible sat loops this AM...

[HURAKAN]

Nice looking TW.

[KWT]

Yep thats quite a sharp wave at that as well. Of course convection isn't all that impressive but at this time of year its a pretty decent looking wave...if this was August we'd have to watch these sorts of waves really closely.

[bvigal]

That healthy-looking wave has now (12z surface) been labeled a 1010mb low. Not the usual fare for May.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

[RL3AO]

Isn't that the first wave to get tagged with a low in the Atlantic this year?

[killah]

Wow, I thought it was too early for this. It still might have a hard time developing into something organzied, we shall see.

[RL3AO]

It was in an area of 15 kts. Now its moving into an area of 30+ kts shear.

[cycloneye]

Maybe,this wave may be the one that GFS develop in the Western Caribbean when it reaches that area.

[masaji79]

Looks like the wave has some pronounced turning. Probably too early in the season for anything to develop way out here, but still cool to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM Discussion by TPC:

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 13N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW WAS ADDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N...
BASED ON PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL TURNING APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES
AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CURVATURE IN AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS...
DESPITE MUCH RAIN FLAGGING. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO AN AREA N
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[RL3AO]

You beat me to it cycloneeye.

[cycloneye]

Are we looking at the first invest of 2008 for the Atlantic?

[HURAKAN]

There is a smell of "poof" in the air!!!

[RL3AO]

It was in an area of low shear. Its entering an area of high shear. No chance at an invest.