Huge African Wave To Enter Atlantic on July 1-2

[Aric Dunn]

the odds of two bertha's as the farthest east development in july would rather interesting.. expescially if this develops as far east as the model are saying it would beat the 96 bertha. i should work out the odds

stand by?

[Derek Ortt]

Also Bertha has to be up there with some of the strongest first half of July hurricanes given it did make it to major status?

100 knots.

Preliminary Report
Hurricane Bertha
05-14 July 1996
Miles B. Lawrence
National Hurricane Center
9 November 1996



Bertha was an early-season Cape Verde Hurricane that moved across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea as a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale and made landfall on the North Carolina coast near Wilmington as a category 2 hurricane. Bertha's one-minute winds reached their maximum value of 100 knots on 9 July, while located to the north of Puerto Rico. The last Hurricane to reach this strength, this early in the season, was Alma in 1966 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with 110 knots. Bertha is responsible for an estimated eight deaths and $250 million in U.S. damages.

when the reanalysis gets to Bertha, it likely will be increased to 110KT since peak 700mb flight elvel winds were 121KT

[space_thrilla]

WOW...I can't believe my thread made it this far...I come back a day and a half later to this.

And by the way I'm definately not new to Storm2K...been here many a time under many an account since 2006. It's my second favorite Tropical Weather site to post at next to Wunderground.

[MiamiensisWx]

This not an official prognosis.

Personally, I'm harboring doubts in regards to the Cape Verde cyclogenesis indicated by some models within the short term. Currently, the wave axis in question is located inland over western Africa, which is closer to the general vicinity of Nigeria. Satellite data indicates greater low level convergence in this area. The timing and movement of the wave indicates it will exit the coastline and move offshore within ~24 hours, coinciding with a new SAL "surge"/inversion as seen here. The Azores ridge will still remain strong within this time frame. An abundance of stratocumulus is evident on visible imagery, providing clues about the unfavorable capping in place over the MDR/eastern tropical Atlantic. Some models may also be too fast in regards to the progression of the MJO pulse into the Caribbean/W Atlantic basin; the mean bias has been oriented toward changing the pattern too quickly, in my view. I'm strongly inclined to cancel the supposed possibilities of Cape Verde TC development, and I strongly urge others to discard the models. Additionally, consistency and the true "picking up a feature" characteristic has been far stronger in previous cases such as Dean and others. I unequivocably will not merit this system with "higher probabilities" simply because of the model consensus in this case.

[RattleMan]

Topic title: "Huge African Wave To Enter Atlantic on June 1-2"

Man that's some amazing forecasting to be able to be able to forecast 11 months into the future.

[Hyperstorm]

Folks, I'm not liking what I'm seeing today. We have a very POWERFUL low pressure system just exploding right on the coastline of Africa this afternoon. Remember yesterday's wave that everyone said it had gone "POOF"? Well, the impressive circulation was still there and latest satellite images indicate an explosion of thunderstorms over what appears to be a well-defined area of low pressure. Again, this is happening right on the coastline of Africa. This is never a good sign for us because it usually gives the wave a huge boost as it moves over the waters. The wave should be completely offshore overnight tonight. Tomorrow will be VERY interesting because if the system remains as impressive as is currently on the coast, I would expect a depression to develop as early as the 5:00 pm advisory tomorrow. I hope it doesn't develop for the sake of what I've seen in model runs, but it's something could very well happen. I'll be watching it.

SSTs right off the coast are 83*...

[Hyperstorm]

This not an official prognosis.

Personally, I'm harboring doubts in regards to the Cape Verde cyclogenesis indicated by some models within the short term. Currently, the wave axis in question is located inland over western Africa, which is closer to the general vicinity of Nigeria. Satellite data indicates greater low level convergence in this area. The timing and movement of the wave indicates it will exit the coastline and move offshore within ~24 hours, coinciding with a new SAL "surge"/inversion as seen here. The Azores ridge will still remain strong within this time frame. An abundance of stratocumulus is evident on visible imagery, providing clues about the unfavorable capping in place over the MDR/eastern tropical Atlantic. Some models may also be too fast in regards to the progression of the MJO pulse into the Caribbean/W Atlantic basin; the mean bias has been oriented toward changing the pattern too quickly, in my view. I'm strongly inclined to cancel the supposed possibilities of Cape Verde TC development, and I strongly urge others to discard the models. Additionally, consistency and the true "picking up a feature" characteristic has been far stronger in previous cases such as Dean and others. I unequivocably will not merit this system with "higher probabilities" simply because of the model consensus in this case.

I respecfully disagree. I do believe this wave has higher than normal chances of developing not only because of the fair consistency in model runs, but based on current satellite imagery and analysis. The wave/low seems to be developing that classic shape for Cape Verde developers as they exit off the coast. I do believe, at the very least, we'll likely have an invest at this time tomorrow.

[Tampa_God]

This not an official prognosis.

Personally, I'm harboring doubts in regards to the Cape Verde cyclogenesis indicated by some models within the short term. Currently, the wave axis in question is located inland over western Africa, which is closer to the general vicinity of Nigeria. Satellite data indicates greater low level convergence in this area. The timing and movement of the wave indicates it will exit the coastline and move offshore within ~24 hours, coinciding with a new SAL "surge"/inversion as seen here. The Azores ridge will still remain strong within this time frame. An abundance of stratocumulus is evident on visible imagery, providing clues about the unfavorable capping in place over the MDR/eastern tropical Atlantic. Some models may also be too fast in regards to the progression of the MJO pulse into the Caribbean/W Atlantic basin; the mean bias has been oriented toward changing the pattern too quickly, in my view. I'm strongly inclined to cancel the supposed possibilities of Cape Verde TC development, and I strongly urge others to discard the models. Additionally, consistency and the true "picking up a feature" characteristic has been far stronger in previous cases such as Dean and others. I unequivocably will not merit this system with "higher probabilities" simply because of the model consensus in this case.

I respecfully disagree. I do believe this wave has higher than normal chances of developing not only because of the fair consistency in model runs, but based on current satellite imagery and analysis. The wave/low seems to be developing that classic shape for Cape Verde developers as they exit off the coast. I do believe, at the very least, we'll likely have an invest at this time tomorrow.

You also have to admit that conditions are fair for something to form in the next 2-3 days.

I expect this to come off the shore early tomorrow and be an invest by the 2 pm advisory. After that, I give them midnight to name it a depression. This has to be the best wave yet this season, and it's only 1 month in. Good or bad, well, you can judge for yourself.

[Jason_B]

I don't know about a depression by tomorrow, I'd like to wait until it actually hits water and see what it looks like then before making any predictions. A TD forming just off of Africa in June just doesn't sound right, I mean I'll eat crow if it happens but I'm not quite jumping on the bandwagon yet.

[NDG]

This not an official prognosis.

Personally, I'm harboring doubts in regards to the Cape Verde cyclogenesis indicated by some models within the short term. Currently, the wave axis in question is located inland over western Africa, which is closer to the general vicinity of Nigeria. Satellite data indicates greater low level convergence in this area. The timing and movement of the wave indicates it will exit the coastline and move offshore within ~24 hours, coinciding with a new SAL "surge"/inversion as seen here. The Azores ridge will still remain strong within this time frame. An abundance of stratocumulus is evident on visible imagery, providing clues about the unfavorable capping in place over the MDR/eastern tropical Atlantic. Some models may also be too fast in regards to the progression of the MJO pulse into the Caribbean/W Atlantic basin; the mean bias has been oriented toward changing the pattern too quickly, in my view. I'm strongly inclined to cancel the supposed possibilities of Cape Verde TC development, and I strongly urge others to discard the models. Additionally, consistency and the true "picking up a feature" characteristic has been far stronger in previous cases such as Dean and others. I unequivocably will not merit this system with "higher probabilities" simply because of the model consensus in this case.

We will see if "all" models are right or wrong about development within the next couple of days near the CV islands.

[Eyewall]

Ok then I say depression by Thursday or Friday by the latest.

[boca]

According to the latest 18z GFS if and if this were to develop it will be a threat to Bermuda according to this model.maybe Frank2 had a point about early recurvature if it develops because the stronger it gets it will be steered by the upper levels.

[Eyewall]

I do not see it recurving out to see if it develops because mornally the steering pattern for this time of year is from east to west going along with the big ridge.Also I do not see it getting that strong that fast for the upper level steering to have and effect on it . Keep in mind it is July and not August.

[vbhoutex]

IF it develops, the key here as far as recurvature is concerned will be how strong it gets and how quickly. Even with a strong ridge to it's north a strong Hurricane can erode the ridge enough to make its' way further North as opposed to a W or WNW type of course.

[hial2]

According to the latest 18z GFS if and if this were to develop it will be a threat to Bermuda according to this model.maybe Frank2 had a point about early recurvature if it develops because the stronger it gets it will be steered by the upper levels.

I can't recall one storm formed close to Africa that models carried all the way across at the start..

[boca]

IF it develops, the key here as far as recurvature is concerned will be how strong it gets and how quickly. Even with a strong ridge to it's north a strong Hurricane can erode the ridge enough to make its' way further North as opposed to a W or WNW type of course.

My point exactly the weaker systems are controlled by lower level winds as stronger systems are controlled by upper levels as well as eroding high pressure systems. I think the high pressure which steered Dean was 1040+.

[Eyewall]

My computer modle says that this will be more of a Dennis path staying south into the eastern caribbean and then into the western caribbean and from their you can do the math.

[boca]

My computer modle says that this will be more of a Dennis path staying south into the eastern caribbean and then into the western caribbean and from their you can do the math.

Do you have a link to your model?

[Jason_B]

My computer modle says that this will be more of a Dennis path staying south into the eastern caribbean and then into the western caribbean and from their you can do the math.

Do you have a link to your model?

I think it's a wishcast type of model.

[boca]

I thought that too, a wishcast.