Possible Development in C Atlantic Wave (Is invest 92L)

[HURAKAN]

IT IS COMING!

j/k

[Mecklenburg]

looks decent enough... but still has no bright future to me

[KWT]

Its got some decent convection with it but whether it can go on to do anything is probably quite another matter of course.

[Mecklenburg]

looks like SAL may still be a bad news for this system... and how should it battle the shear?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Like I said don't expect any development into a cyclone for another 48 hours. Now down to around 36 hours or so...But hey once into the centeral Atlantic is could have to deal with the TUTT too. So I'm not holding my hopes high.

POOF THE MASIC dragon lives by the cape verdes.

[HURAKAN]

Mecklenburg, if you look at the SAL, it's quite weak and the shear is also weak in the area. It has upper level divergence and low level convergence. It may never get going internally, but conditions are there for possible development. Something that may also hinder development is that its moving fast. I never talk because I wish, when I talk is because I have an idea of the atmospheric conditions affecting the storm.

[HURAKAN]

Dragon SAL is becoming just a house cat.

[alan1961]

Looks to be a good moisture envelope with this wave

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

[tornado92]

Looks like it could sporn into a Hurricane if the moisture keeps up.

[alan1961]

Dragon SAL is becoming just a house cat.

Yes HURAKAN, poof the magic dragon SAL cat is lurking!

[alan1961]

Looks like it could sporn into a Hurricane if the moisture keeps up.

Spawn tornado, spawn!, welcome my english friend

[KWT]

There is a little shear further west but it doesn't seem to be all that extreme right now anyway unless it gets further north, though the ULL does seem to be dropping to the SW which may be an issue eventually.

[tornado92]

Looks like it could sporn into a Hurricane if the moisture keeps up.

Spawn tornado, spawn!, welcome my english friend

Thank you very much, its good to be here!!!

By the way, KWT I sent you a PM. I don't know if you got it or not.

[alan1961]

anyone think that comet diving down towards the ne caribbean has any circulation to it, looks a bit suspicious to me

[HURAKAN]

Something that must be understood by our new members is that even if conditions are present for development (disturbance, low shear, moisture, SST, etc), it doesn't necessarily mean that a cyclone will develop.

[tornado92]

though, it does offer a stepping stone to Hurricane development...

[Tampa_God]

anyone think that comet diving down towards the ne caribbean has any circulation to it, looks a bit suspicious to me

There's a thread about it already, but I'll just add on that the area it is moving into is poor for any development at the moment.

Now onto this wave. It certainly seems like SAL has weakened somewhat to allow this some extra life. But if the wave I just talked about does nothing to the persisting SAL over near the Carr. and the ULL doesnt budge, well, this will have a hard time staying alive.

[alan1961]

anyone think that comet diving down towards the ne caribbean has any circulation to it, looks a bit suspicious to me

There's a thread about it already, but I'll just add on that the area it is moving into is poor for any development at the moment.

Now onto this wave. It certainly seems like SAL has weakened somewhat to allow this some extra life. But if the wave I just talked about does nothing to the persisting SAL over near the Carr. and the ULL doesnt budge, well, this will have a hard time staying alive.

ok Tampa, thanks for that, i wasn't aware of a thread for that, cheers

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

Press "play" and then "faster" a few times to better see it.



It seems in the loop that a circulation, likely ML, is present on the northern edge of the convection.

[littlevince]

12:00Z