Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[KWT]

Certainly is active in terms of convection right now, not too organised either which actually is good for this system as it shouldn't pull too quickly to the NW like some better developed waves recently.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Cycloneye do you know if there is a low with this wave or not?

I think this is a bigger threat down the road if there isn't. This could well go straight to invest in the next 12hrs IMO given this deep convection.

Early days but I've got a sneaky feeling this could be like Luis 1995 if it does form given the current pattern out there...

[Category 5]

If this holds up it will be an invest tomorrow.

[Mecklenburg]

uh-oh... i think it's far more north again... like the previous good waves...

[AnnularCane]

Wow, that is just...beautiful.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye do you know if there is a low with this wave or not?

Only by looking at those pics above it has to have at least a MLC.

[KWT]

Should be noted that by the time it gets into the western Atlantic the favorable MJO should be shifting across as well....

[Mecklenburg]

it last it's the SAL now that is poofing...

[Cyclone1]

Oh wow, I haven't even noticed this yet. Look impressive.

[Category 5]

This might be the best looking wave coming off this year.

[Mecklenburg]

This might be the best looking wave coming off this year.

was this more impressive than bertha as a tropical wave? coz i haven't seen it...

[ConvergenceZone]

cycloneye, are any of the models picking up on this wave? and if so, what direction are they taking it?

Thanks in advance...

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, are any of the models picking up on this wave? and if so, what direction are they taking it?

Thanks in advance...

Well,if I tell you there is a consensus of the global models on this developing,some have it weak,others more strong.In terms of direction,it depends if the subtropical ridge is fairly strong to not cause it to recurve.You can check the models in this thread going back to page 4.

[ConvergenceZone]

cycloneye, are any of the models picking up on this wave? and if so, what direction are they taking it?

Thanks in advance...

Well,if I tell you there is a consensus of the global models on this developing,some have it weak,others more strong.In terms of direction,it depends if the subtropical ridge is fairly strong to not cause it to recurve.You can check the models in this thread going back to page 4.

okay thanks, I'll ckeck them out... I have some friends in the carib islands, so I always like to keep them abreast of any developing waves.....

[Scorpion]

Wow, it looks great. No wonder the models develop this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC, Bertha looked better. But this does have that 'shrimp' shape, sort of like the number "9", that suggests it already has a circulation.


Really, until it gets withing range of the GOES, around 30ºW, and can be seen on satellite loops, it'll be hard to tell.

We are just one week away from what I consider the meat and potatoes, with June and July storms like Bertha and Dolly a heartier antipasto than usual, and hopefully not too rich a dessert in late October and November. But mid August to mid October, is the main course.


Looks like 18Z GFS says development and recurve, but I don't trust it much beyond 180 hours.

[HurricaneBelle]

We are just one week away from what I consider the meat and potatoes, with June and July storms like Bertha and Dolly a heartier antipasto than usual, and hopefully not too rich a dessert in late October and November. But mid August to mid October, is the main course.

So I guess that 2005 was an all-you-can-eat buffet (with plenty of Greek pastry for dessert).

[cycloneye]

The latest pic at 9:30 PM EDT:

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, sooo this is the wave that the models are thinking to be the next big tropicial system????