Is The 2008 Hurricane Season Winding Down Quickly?

[hurricanetrack]

You know what people who say the season is ending now remind me of? That guy who worked for Saddam Hussein who kept saying that nothing was happening in Iraq and that the Americans would be defeated even as Coalition Forces were converging on and conquering Bagdhad on LIVE TV. The man kept on going even after Saddam was run in to hiding. He was the brunt of so many U.S. jokes.

We have possibly 400 Texans missing (according to Houston Chronicle article out today), BILLIONS in damage, an ARSE LOAD of tropical cyclones that affected land this season, a forecast from CSU for more above normal activity and people have the audacity to make statements like "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package". Since I know better and know not to take these posts seriously, I have to assume that these people are only trying to stir up trouble where there is none.

I mean come on, what is it going to take? Wasn't Ike enough? How about Gustav? How are people in Baton Rouge doing these days? How about Gilchrist, Texas? Haiti? Cuba? Dude, we have had tremendous impact to people all across the western Basin and we saw posts earlier this season about bull crap East Coast troughs, westerlies and dry air. How did all that work out? Enough is enough. I suppose if I don't like reading some of this nonsense then I can just not come here but dag gone, this board was once full of people who could post amazing amounts of helpful information and it mattered to people all over the world. Now, we seem to have less of that and more of this denial mentality that nothing is really happening when in fact this has been a devastating hurricane season. Ask Wxman57 how he enjoyed having no power for so long. There are so many others too- write them, ask them. It is just astounding to read "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package" in the face of what we have had this season. The person who wrote that is smarter than that- he has to be. Therefore, I cannot believe it is really his true thoughts but more of a gesture to stir up trouble and rile people up causing them to have to prove that the season is still running strong. Let's see some evidence. Phil K. provided that with his recent update- he didn't just come out and say "I think the season still has some kick to it" and leave it at that. He backed it up with evidence. Let's see more of that from some of the folks here when making these outrageous statements about the season ending today. I disagree, it is not "very possible" at all. There is no evidence to support that what so ever. I for one hope it does end, I have had enough this season- and coming from me, that's a lot! But my evidence is rooted in the report from CSU today- read it.

I know I took the bait with this original post but if someone does not stand up and say "whoa there!" and put some reality back in to the mix, then this venerable message board will suffer and crack under pressure- it will. People depend on it for solid info, it's not a hobby, it's a public service more times than not. I think "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package" should be in the off-topic area, but that's just my opinion.

[Andrew92]

You know what people who say the season is ending now remind me of? That guy who worked for Saddam Hussein who kept saying that nothing was happening in Iraq and that the Americans would be defeated even as Coalition Forces were converging on and conquering Bagdhad on LIVE TV. The man kept on going even after Saddam was run in to hiding. He was the brunt of so many U.S. jokes.

We have possibly 400 Texans missing (according to Houston Chronicle article out today), BILLIONS in damage, an ARSE LOAD of tropical cyclones that affected land this season, a forecast from CSU for more above normal activity and people have the audacity to make statements like "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package". Since I know better and know not to take these posts seriously, I have to assume that these people are only trying to stir up trouble where there is none.

I mean come on, what is it going to take? Wasn't Ike enough? How about Gustav? How are people in Baton Rouge doing these days? How about Gilchrist, Texas? Haiti? Cuba? Dude, we have had tremendous impact to people all across the western Basin and we saw posts earlier this season about bull crap East Coast troughs, westerlies and dry air. How did all that work out? Enough is enough. I suppose if I don't like reading some of this nonsense then I can just not come here but dag gone, this board was once full of people who could post amazing amounts of helpful information and it mattered to people all over the world. Now, we seem to have less of that and more of this denial mentality that nothing is really happening when in fact this has been a devastating hurricane season. Ask Wxman57 how he enjoyed having no power for so long. There are so many others too- write them, ask them. It is just astounding to read "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package" in the face of what we have had this season. The person who wrote that is smarter than that- he has to be. Therefore, I cannot believe it is really his true thoughts but more of a gesture to stir up trouble and rile people up causing them to have to prove that the season is still running strong. Let's see some evidence. Phil K. provided that with his recent update- he didn't just come out and say "I think the season still has some kick to it" and leave it at that. He backed it up with evidence. Let's see more of that from some of the folks here when making these outrageous statements about the season ending today. I disagree, it is not "very possible" at all. There is no evidence to support that what so ever. I for one hope it does end, I have had enough this season- and coming from me, that's a lot! But my evidence is rooted in the report from CSU today- read it.

I know I took the bait with this original post but if someone does not stand up and say "whoa there!" and put some reality back in to the mix, then this venerable message board will suffer and crack under pressure- it will. People depend on it for solid info, it's not a hobby, it's a public service more times than not. I think "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package" should be in the off-topic area, but that's just my opinion.

Oh my gosh you hit the nail on the head with that. I've been staying out of most of the discussions on these forums lately but I have been reading them, and this thread has nothing but driven me crazy.

Only 6 seasons with no more named storms after this day - and only one of them had as much activity as we have seen som far in terms of named storms! And even that year, 2002, was much less active, as many of them were short-lived, and only four became hurricanes. As for why that season ended, keep in mind that year was an El Nino year, and if I'm right, it is VERY hard to get storms forming even in October in an El Nino situation. Look at active 2004 even for a good example. And if I'm correct, the other five seasons mentioned were also El Nino. But this is NOT El Nino.

What is unfortunately two times more likely, is that we get yet one more big hurricane this season. Here is a list of all the big ones that have been retired (or in the case of a couple, would have/should have been retired) - NOT just hit the U.S.

1950 - King
1954 - Hazel
1961 - Hattie
1985 - Juan
1988 - Joan
1994 - Gordon
1995 - Roxanne
1998 - Mitch
1999 - Lenny
2001 - Iris
2001 - Michelle
2005 - Stan
2005 - Wilma

I'm keeping Klaus of 1990 and Noel of 2007 off as I disagree with their reasons for retirement. I guess I can understand why Noel was retired but I don't think it should've been.

Without those two hurricanes, this is still 13 names retired. Or at least, King might have been if it was eligible in 1950, and Juan and Gordon most definitely should have been. However, even this list isn't fully complete. If we put in storms that had also formed by this date and would later make their final strike, we have Inez in 1966, Opal in 1995, Keith in 2000, and Lili in 2002.

This season is most definitely NOT over, no matter what the shear is like AT THIS POINT. It can still become favorable again for development. I haven't actually read the report, but I'll take your word for it at this post for now before taking a glance at it, knowing past history.

-Andrew92

[Frank2]

If you folks want to think that there will be more death and destruction I guess that's your business, but, there are enough problems in the world without our having to think that the active season will still continue beyond this time...

And, yes, I was the one who made the "11 a.m. advisory package" comment yesterday, but, unlike what you mentioned, that is not stirring up trouble but is being hopeful (why anyone would say that is stirring up trouble escapes me), unlike the rogue headline in yesterday's Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel that said "Major hurricane forecast [for October]" which does stir up trouble and fear - and wischasting - among those who seem to desire more loss, per your own account of 400 missing...

What really troubles me is the fact that many individuals in generations younger than my own now seem to almost enjoy watching suffering, death and destruction - that is more frightening to me that any hurricane or tornado, for certain, since that way of thinking is evil unto itself...

Per yesterday's snow in the mountains of North Carolina (seen on TWC this morning), I'd say that the hurricane season, per the topic, is winding down - quickly, and, that's not to say that I or anyone else knows what will come, since we don't, but, the obvious signs are there...

And, per that comment about Iraq, we should have listened to Pope John Paul II who pleaded three different times with our own leader not to attempt what has become a terrible burden for everyone (John Paul, having endured both the Nazi's and KGB, knew well of that brand of trouble), so, we can only be mindful of own mistakes and hopefully learn from them...

Frank

[Stormcenter]

I personally believe we are done when it comes to the "major" storms
in 2008 for the Western and North Central GOM. I know some of you
diehards want to believe otherwise but climatology is not in your favor.

[Stormcenter]

If you folks want to think that there will be more death and destruction I guess that's your business, but, there are enough problems in the world without our having to think that the active season will still continue beyond this time...

And, yes, I was the one who made the "11 a.m. advisory package" comment yesterday, but, unlike what you mentioned, that is not stirring up trouble but is being hopeful (why anyone would say that is stirring up trouble escapes me), unlike the rogue headline in yesterday's Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel that said "Major hurricane forecast [for October]" which does stir up trouble and fear - and wischasting - among those who seem to desire more loss, per your own account of 400 missing...

What really troubles me is the fact that many individuals in generations younger than my own now seem to almost enjoy watching suffering, death and destruction - that is more frightening to me that any hurricane or tornado, for certain, since that way of thinking is evil unto itself...

Per yesterday's snow in the mountains of North Carolina (seen on TWC this morning), I'd say that the hurricane season, per the topic, is winding down - quickly, and, that's not to say that I or anyone else knows what will come, since we don't, but, the obvious signs are there...

And, per that comment about Iraq, we should have listened to Pope John Paul II who pleaded three different times with our own leader not to attempt what has become a terrible burden for everyone (John Paul, having endured both the Nazi's and KGB, knew well of that brand of trouble), so, we can only be mindful of own mistakes and hopefully learn from them...

Frank

Good post.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

If you folks want to think that there will be more death and destruction I guess that's your business, but, there are enough problems in the world without our having to think that the active season will still continue beyond this time...

Per yesterday's snow in the mountains of North Carolina (seen on TWC this morning), I'd say that the hurricane season, per the topic, is winding down - quickly, and, that's not to say that I or anyone else knows what will come, since we don't, but, the obvious signs are there...
Frank

I think it's very unfair to accuse people who disagree with you about the chances of there being more hurricanes this season of wanting there to be more "death and destruction." It seems that they have good arguments based on past history to me. And I don't see how forecasting no more hurricanes because one doesn't want to see them isn't just as much "wish-casting" as forecasting there will be more hurricanes because you like to track them.

As for the cold in the North Carolina mountains -- is there really data that shows that a cold spell in the North Carolina mountains around October 1 predicts that there will be no more hurricanes that season? If so, great. If not, it's irrelevant. I don't have any knowledge about this one way or the other. Can you provide statistics on that, like the people who are predicting more hurricanes based on the behavior of past seasons did?

[hurricanetrack]

If people are scared, then they are not educated about what they are scared of. Plain and simple. If a newspaper headline makes people fearful of hurricanes, then they need to learn more about what to expect in a given October and compare that to what is forecast by the experts for this October. Blaming the media for scaring people is a cop out in my opinion. If these people allow the media to scare them without learning more about the facts on their own, then they are not doing enough to help themselves.

There is a balance on this board- between those who take every opportunity to deny the severity of the season at hand and those who enjoy seeing a good hurricane pop up and do its thing. Is this any different than 1900? Not in the least. Isaac Cline himself denied that Galveston could ever be inundated by a "great wave". Boy was he wrong. People marveled at the chance to see the weather at its worst- they ran to the coast to witness the huge waves coming from that hurricane in September of 1900. Fast forward to 2008- look at all the pictures of people watching the waves in Galveston and elsewhere as Ike approached. Your confusing people who are passionate about the weather with people who do not care if their fellow man is killed by such weather. Do not mix the two please. I do not know anyone who thrives on seeing death and destruction, no one. I certainly don't but I thoroughougly enjoy seeing the power of a hurricane, it is amazing and unlike anything else on Earth. I challenge other people on this board to openly discuss their reasons for staying up all hours of the night, waiting for the new GFDL, UKMET or ECMWF to come out and see what secrets they reveal. Why do people get so passionate about hurricanes? There is a magical lure, hurricanes have been a part of American history since the get-go. Columbus himself likely encountered swells from a distant hurricane on his first voyage. This is nothing new, hurricanes and man have tangled for a long, long time. My point is that there are those on this board who seemingly like to downplay every aspect of the hurricane season to the point of absurdity. You can call it hope, that's fine. We all HOPE for a good outcome. We all hope that the 400 missing Texans show up soon. But the reality is that this has been another historic hurricane season with lots of lost lives. I think there is a fine line between denial and hope. I think it would be better to preface some posts with "I hope that the season is quickly coming to an end" or "I hope that there is a strong east coast trough to thwart hurricanes away from the U.S." but instead we get a lot of stories, folklore and such that just does not make a lot of sense to most of us. Not all, but most. My statements here on this topic are not meant to be mean-hearted but I just cannot believe that looking at snow in the mountains of NC has anything to do with what might happen later this month. So what? The persistent East Coast trough that you mentioned many months ago it seems did nothing to stop the barrage of hurricanes did it? You hoped it would, but it did not work out and the hurricanes got through time and time again. I posted on that topic saying that we only need a few weeks of the kind of pattern that would allow hurricanes to come west and we are all in trouble. That came to pass. It does not mean I am some guru or sage, I just know from my 12 years of doing this work that hoping for a storm or hoping against a storm does no good. They are coming or not coming whether we like it or not.

[hurricanetrack]

I will say this, you are technically correct about the season winding down quickly:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/peakofseason.gif

It has been since just around the time of Ike. Still, it does not matter how quickly it is winding down, until the water is cold and the westerlies are south of 20N, it is still very much hurricane season- notice that little spike there in later October, just before the 20th? That is there for a reason- enough tropical cyclones have formed around that time to show up in the long-term stats.

[kpost]

I will start this post with I hope this season is over for all, but i like reading Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog and if i was betting i wouldn't put money on the season being over. this is a good and informative read http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1110&tstamp=200810

[Frank2]

I think it's very unfair to accuse people who disagree with you about the chances of there being more hurricanes this season of wanting there to be more "death and destruction." It seems that they have good arguments based on past history to me.

But, why is there an argument to begin with? Is it for meteorology's sake, or, is there another reason?

Our late HRD/NHC Director, Dr. Robert "Bob" Burpee, was known to host an annual "end of the hurricane season" party at his house sometime towards the end of the season or calendar year, but, even he realized (sometimes, to the point of teasing) that the party could be premature if there was a late-season system - as was the case more than once...

But, did he or any of the other folks in the office actually argue over whether there would be more activity - no - since we often had our fill of adrenaline rushes by the time October arrived, and, were usually eager for the off season to begin (not to mention those at the HRD, who needed to begin analyzing the mountain of data collected during that season's field program).

Perhaps it has something to do with what side of the fence a person is on - in the case of those who actually have to deal with a hurricane in some work-related way, from forecasters to first-responders, usually their late-season weariness is enough last them until next Summer...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Hey Frank what do you think about this comment from NWS Miami....more reason to believe the hurricane season is over?

I was checking low temp projections across the Gulf Coast of Florida tonight and they will be falling into the 50s along the Nature Coast and lower to mid 60s along the SW Coast of FL...that should definitely lower the GOM SSTs some..

Still only low 70s here along the SE Coast of FL (some scattered upper 60s extreme NW part of the South Florida metro areas)

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR IN BASE OF EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH POISED TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...WITH PWAT VALUES
LIKELY FALLING BELOW 1 INCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S...THE LOWER DEW POINTS
WILL CREATE A REFRESHING FEEL TO THE AIRMASS THAT HAS NOT BEEN
EXPERIENCED IN SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE LAST MAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[Frank2]

I'm not sure about this, but, they might indicate, based on that comment, that today is the official end of the South Florida rainy season - I believe their comment is at least one factor they use to determine the end of the season, so, possible that we may see a special weather statement this afternoon indicating the end (of the rainy season, that is)...

LOL

Thanks!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Courtesy of Dr. Masters...

Far fewer Cape Verdes-type hurricanes form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands during October, compared to September (Figure 2). Many of those that do form recurve out to sea, and the odds are that hurricane season is over for the Lesser Antilles Islands. Only four October hurricanes have affected these islands since 1851. Hurricane season is also probably over for Texas, which which has only seen three October hurricanes since 1851. Hurricane season is definitely not over for Central America, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. coast from Louisiana to New England, plus Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the islands of the central and western Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hey Frank what do you think about this comment from NWS Miami....more reason to believe the hurricane season is over?

I was checking low temp projections across the Gulf Coast of Florida tonight and they will be falling into the 50s along the Nature Coast and lower to mid 60s along the SW Coast of FL...that should definitely lower the GOM SSTs some..

Still only low 70s here along the SE Coast of FL (some scattered upper 60s extreme NW part of the South Florida metro areas)

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR IN BASE OF EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH POISED TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...WITH PWAT VALUES
LIKELY FALLING BELOW 1 INCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S...THE LOWER DEW POINTS
WILL CREATE A REFRESHING FEEL TO THE AIRMASS THAT HAS NOT BEEN
EXPERIENCED IN SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE LAST MAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Well, hurricane season isn't over East of the Sabine River, but except for Southern Florida, looks like SSTs are starting to cool enough to make a major hurricane less likely. Gustav and Ike did some serious upwelling in the Northern GOMEX.

[Frank2]

I just called the NWSFO, and, one of the forecasters told me that today is not the end of the rainy season, by their determination, since the low PWAT's are solely due to the dry airmass overhead (and not a seasonal change in the weather pattern, which makes sense, since we get low PWAT's even during the hottest summer days)...

[gatorcane]

I just called the NWSFO, and, one of the forecasters told me that today is not the end of the rainy season, by their determination, since the low PWAT's are solely due to the dry airmass overhead (and not a seasonal change in the weather pattern)...

well I would agree with that...

This article discusses the South Florida rainy season in depth..a good read:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/summer_season.html

[Ptarmigan]

You know what people who say the season is ending now remind me of? That guy who worked for Saddam Hussein who kept saying that nothing was happening in Iraq and that the Americans would be defeated even as Coalition Forces were converging on and conquering Bagdhad on LIVE TV. The man kept on going even after Saddam was run in to hiding. He was the brunt of so many U.S. jokes.

We have possibly 400 Texans missing (according to Houston Chronicle article out today), BILLIONS in damage, an ARSE LOAD of tropical cyclones that affected land this season, a forecast from CSU for more above normal activity and people have the audacity to make statements like "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package". Since I know better and know not to take these posts seriously, I have to assume that these people are only trying to stir up trouble where there is none.

I mean come on, what is it going to take? Wasn't Ike enough? How about Gustav? How are people in Baton Rouge doing these days? How about Gilchrist, Texas? Haiti? Cuba? Dude, we have had tremendous impact to people all across the western Basin and we saw posts earlier this season about bull crap East Coast troughs, westerlies and dry air. How did all that work out? Enough is enough. I suppose if I don't like reading some of this nonsense then I can just not come here but dag gone, this board was once full of people who could post amazing amounts of helpful information and it mattered to people all over the world. Now, we seem to have less of that and more of this denial mentality that nothing is really happening when in fact this has been a devastating hurricane season. Ask Wxman57 how he enjoyed having no power for so long. There are so many others too- write them, ask them. It is just astounding to read "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package" in the face of what we have had this season. The person who wrote that is smarter than that- he has to be. Therefore, I cannot believe it is really his true thoughts but more of a gesture to stir up trouble and rile people up causing them to have to prove that the season is still running strong. Let's see some evidence. Phil K. provided that with his recent update- he didn't just come out and say "I think the season still has some kick to it" and leave it at that. He backed it up with evidence. Let's see more of that from some of the folks here when making these outrageous statements about the season ending today. I disagree, it is not "very possible" at all. There is no evidence to support that what so ever. I for one hope it does end, I have had enough this season- and coming from me, that's a lot! But my evidence is rooted in the report from CSU today- read it.

I know I took the bait with this original post but if someone does not stand up and say "whoa there!" and put some reality back in to the mix, then this venerable message board will suffer and crack under pressure- it will. People depend on it for solid info, it's not a hobby, it's a public service more times than not. I think "...it's very possible that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season might end with the 11 a.m. advisory package" should be in the off-topic area, but that's just my opinion.

Well said! Season is not over yet until November 30, but storms can form afterwards.

[Ptarmigan]

Oh my gosh you hit the nail on the head with that. I've been staying out of most of the discussions on these forums lately but I have been reading them, and this thread has nothing but driven me crazy.

Only 6 seasons with no more named storms after this day - and only one of them had as much activity as we have seen som far in terms of named storms! And even that year, 2002, was much less active, as many of them were short-lived, and only four became hurricanes. As for why that season ended, keep in mind that year was an El Nino year, and if I'm right, it is VERY hard to get storms forming even in October in an El Nino situation. Look at active 2004 even for a good example. And if I'm correct, the other five seasons mentioned were also El Nino. But this is NOT El Nino.

What is unfortunately two times more likely, is that we get yet one more big hurricane this season. Here is a list of all the big ones that have been retired (or in the case of a couple, would have/should have been retired) - NOT just hit the U.S.

1950 - King
1954 - Hazel
1961 - Hattie
1985 - Juan
1988 - Joan
1994 - Gordon
1995 - Roxanne
1998 - Mitch
1999 - Lenny
2001 - Iris
2001 - Michelle
2005 - Stan
2005 - Wilma

I'm keeping Klaus of 1990 and Noel of 2007 off as I disagree with their reasons for retirement. I guess I can understand why Noel was retired but I don't think it should've been.

Without those two hurricanes, this is still 13 names retired. Or at least, King might have been if it was eligible in 1950, and Juan and Gordon most definitely should have been. However, even this list isn't fully complete. If we put in storms that had also formed by this date and would later make their final strike, we have Inez in 1966, Opal in 1995, Keith in 2000, and Lili in 2002.

This season is most definitely NOT over, no matter what the shear is like AT THIS POINT. It can still become favorable again for development. I haven't actually read the report, but I'll take your word for it at this post for now before taking a glance at it, knowing past history.

-Andrew92

2004 season had an El Nino develop late into the season, albleit a weak one. Hurricane Klaus of 1990 is a storm that I do not even remember. I know France requested to retire the name Klaus.

[ConvergenceZone]

All I can say is, I'm still waiting for all of this late September and October activity that people said would happen... I mentioned after IKE that the season appeared to be ending early, with perhaps another storm or 2,(right on so far), and I was all but tar and feathered for saying that the season was winding down ,but I'll keep waiting for these October storms that people have predicted, and we'll see who was right ....I'll gladly
admit I was wrong if I was. I have no problem with that...

[Cyclenall]

Well I'm glad after reading this page that I ignored this thread. Sounds like more nonsense spread around and about!

What really troubles me is the fact that many individuals in generations younger than my own now seem to almost enjoy watching suffering, death and destruction - that is more frightening to me that any hurricane or tornado, for certain, since that way of thinking is evil unto itself...

They enjoy something new and fresh, exciting. They might want to see destruction, but not suffering and death. I think it's because the older generation didn't have as much media when growing up and therefore less action clips of extreme storms hence not excited by extreme weather as much.