2008 TCRs

[CrazyC83]

The land observation at the coast east of Matamoros definitely warrants Cat 2 at 1400Z (in fact, I would have gone up to 90 kt at that point since it is below standard elevation and quite likely not a peak wind).

I do agree it was a Cat 1 at landfall after reading the data. There is nothing to support anything higher than 75 kt (and certainly not Cat 2); an assumption could normally be made that winds were stronger north of the eye where there were no reports, but Dolly was a weird storm in that the strongest winds were on the left side.

[CrazyC83]

Is $1.05 billion these days enough to warrant retirement? Death toll alone would keep Dolly afloat in 2014.

[HurricaneRobert]

Sort of like Hurricane Elena.

[Derek Ortt]

Dolly has as much chance of being retired as I have of winning the Masters Tournament

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dolly has as much chance of being retired as I have of winning the Masters Tournament

True, but I'll remember Dolly, for the four times in five days I said "it becomes at least a depression today" and was correct only once.

[cycloneye]

The most anticipated report of 2008 is now available for the members to read,and that is Hurricane Ike.Its very long (51 pages) so read it slowly and carefully.Go to the first post of thread to read it.

[HURAKAN]

From the Ike report:

"In advance of the hurricane, about 2.6 million people were evacuated, or about 23% of the entire Cuban population. Due to the massive evacuations and preparations, only seven direct deaths were reported due to falling structures and drowning."

The Cuban government always reacts to prevent deaths in natural disasters. Flora in 1963 was an awakening for them.

[CrazyC83]

This will take a long time for me to sort out, but here are my opinions on the intensity:

Atlantic Peak intensity - probably too high IMO. My guess in the far Atlantic is 115-120 kt and 946mb. It didn't look all that much better than Bertha did, and certainly not as good as Gustav did before Cuban landfall.

Caribbean landfalls - make sense.

Gulf peak intensity - The lowest pressure from Recon was 941mb at 11/0200Z based on extrapolation. That IMO was the actual peak intensity (even though the winds were 85 kt at that point).

Final landfall - my guess is 100 kt based on comparison of data. (It should be noted, though, that such winds would not have been felt on land - they would have been over water at that time).

[Derek Ortt]

where do you get 100KT crazy?

If anything, it should have been 85-90KT based upon the SURFACE data

[CrazyC83]

where do you get 100KT crazy?

If anything, it should have been 85-90KT based upon the SURFACE data

The maximum surface data would have been over a wildlife refuge, where there were no observations. Even if there were obs there, it would have been over water.

Flight-level winds peaked at 109 kt before landfall, translating to 98 kt at the surface (shown on the graphic at around 0400Z). Radar observations also go to the high 90s based on 6,500 feet.

[Derek Ortt]

where do you get 100KT crazy?

If anything, it should have been 85-90KT based upon the SURFACE data

The maximum surface data would have been over a wildlife refuge, where there were no observations. Even if there were obs there, it would have been over water.

Flight-level winds peaked at 109 kt before landfall, translating to 98 kt at the surface (shown on the graphic at around 0400Z). Radar observations also go to the high 90s based on 6,500 feet.

you need to stop being a slave to 90%. You need to read Franklin et al. (2003) so you can see what the range of flight level to surface winds are. You would see that the range is 60-120%.

The SFMR clearly only justified a max of 90KT

[Derek Ortt]

Of note from the Ike TCR is that Wilma remains the third costliest hurricane in U.S. History. Ike is several billion below Wilma (though I question the doubling factor for total damage in this case due to the large tidal surge damage)

[wxman57]

As already stated, FL winds, Doppler measurements of winds between 5000-10000 ft up and surface pressure are not the best estimate of actual surface winds. And from what I've observed, SFMR winds may even tend to err on the high side. Actual surface observations by a number of hurricane chase teams deployed directly in the path of Ike confirm that Ike's surface winds were well below Cat 3 strength. In fact, there were no direct observations of Cat 2 intensity. But we wouldn't expect a Cat 2 hurricane to produce Cat 2 winds over any land areas with the possible exception of very low-lying areas on or near the beach or across barrier islands.

I think the 95 kts carried at landfall for Ike is probably a bit generous. There may have been some very small areas of 90 kt winds and only in the northeast quadrant, but that's about it. This just goes to show you that all hurricanes are dangerous, not just "major" hurricanes. Don't ever take any hurricane lightly if you're in any surge evacuation zone.

[somethingfunny]

I'm not a meteorologist and have never so much as taken a class in it so I won't pretend to analyze surface-to-ground ratios with Ike but Cat2 makes sense to me; only in that it had been a Cat2 throughout its trek across the Gulf and it was clearly strengthening at landfall. The lack of surface evidence could not possibly warrant an upgrade to Cat3, but the evidence of tightening and strengthening discounts a Cat1 at landfall like Dolly.

What was more surprising to me was Ike's Category 4 landfall in eastern Cuba.

And, although I was never expecting an upgrade to Cat3 in Texas, this means that (barring a major surprise from Gustav) the United States hasn't had a "major" hurricane make landfall since Wilma in October 2005. That's the longest interlude since Bret'99-Charley'04.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not a meteorologist and have never so much as taken a class in it so I won't pretend to analyze surface-to-ground ratios with Ike but Cat2 makes sense to me; only in that it had been a Cat2 throughout its trek across the Gulf and it was clearly strengthening at landfall. The lack of surface evidence could not possibly warrant an upgrade to Cat3, but the evidence of tightening and strengthening discounts a Cat1 at landfall like Dolly.

What was more surprising to me was Ike's Category 4 landfall in eastern Cuba.

And, although I was never expecting an upgrade to Cat3 in Texas, this means that (barring a major surprise from Gustav) the United States hasn't had a "major" hurricane make landfall since Wilma in October 2005. That's the longest interlude since Bret'99-Charley'04.

Gustav was weakening before landfall - I would expect it to drop to about 90 kt.

[Hurricanehink]

I'm not a meteorologist and have never so much as taken a class in it so I won't pretend to analyze surface-to-ground ratios with Ike but Cat2 makes sense to me; only in that it had been a Cat2 throughout its trek across the Gulf and it was clearly strengthening at landfall. The lack of surface evidence could not possibly warrant an upgrade to Cat3, but the evidence of tightening and strengthening discounts a Cat1 at landfall like Dolly.

What was more surprising to me was Ike's Category 4 landfall in eastern Cuba.

And, although I was never expecting an upgrade to Cat3 in Texas, this means that (barring a major surprise from Gustav) the United States hasn't had a "major" hurricane make landfall since Wilma in October 2005. That's the longest interlude since Bret'99-Charley'04.

Since Wilma, it has been 1187 days without a major hurricane, and June 1st will bring it to 1315. The Bret to Charley gap was 1811 days. The last time prior to the Bret-Charley that was 1187 days or more was between Elena in 1985 and Hugo in 1989, which was 1481 days.

[wxman57]

Gustav was weakening before landfall - I would expect it to drop to about 90 kt.

Yeah, Gustav was definitely weaker than Ike at landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Gustav was weakening before landfall - I would expect it to drop to about 90 kt.

Yeah, Gustav was definitely weaker than Ike at landfall.

The Cuban landfall intensity will be interesting to see - there was a 212 mph (184 kt) gust reported (and in NHC advisories, that requires an intensity around 150 kt), but can it still be Cat 5 with a pressure of around 940mb? I would disregard that gust personally, but it remains to be seen.

[wxman57]

The Cuban landfall intensity will be interesting to see - there was a 212 mph (184 kt) gust reported (and in NHC advisories, that requires an intensity around 150 kt), but can it still be Cat 5 with a pressure of around 940mb? I would disregard that gust personally, but it remains to be seen.

As of last week, Bill Read commented (at AMS meeting in Phoenix) that they were reviewing that observation to determine whether to recognize it as an accurate report. Eyewall ,mesovortices can produce extreme wind gusts, as was indicated by that dropsonde report of around 238 mph in Isabel in 2003. And it's also possible that the 212 mph gust occurred in a tornado. That wouldn't make Gustav a Cat 5, though.

[CrazyC83]

That is my thinking as well - that extreme gust in Gustav was not representative of its intensity. Realistically, I can't see a storm hitting Cuba with a pressure of 940 and winds around 140-150 kt, and dropping to about 105 kt on exit with a pressure around 955 - it would be more like 965-970 with that hypothetical pressure gradient. (As it is, 940mb is fairly high for even the 130 kt operationally intensity.)