Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?

[boca]

00z CMC

The Canadian model gets into this,but takes a different track than GFS,EURO.It tracks to south of Puerto Rico and slams into Hispanola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

By the way,look at the pics above in this page,how convective is that area South of the CV islands.Instead of convection weakening after the exit from Africa,it has gained.

Yeah that is interesting. The 00Z ECMWF moves it much more west now just north of the leewards/Hispaniola/DR. Then as a tropical wave/weak low into the Bahamas and then Southern FL. In fact looking at the Geopotential 500 hPa, it builds back in the Bermuda High pretty strongly as soon as the big trough lifts out at 168 hours.

It just shows that the ridge/trough setup 7+ days out can definitely change. It's likely going to keep changing. Of course there is only a small chance anything develops in the first place, the best we can hope for.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9071400!!/

I don't know we seem to be stuck with this trough every couple of days reasserting itself.I still think if a cyclone forms it will recurve around 65w. Here a snippet from Miami NWS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY TAKE PLACE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS M/U TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEX LATE SUN/MONDAY PUSHING THE RIDGE
SOUTHWARD AND BRINGING A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AGAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE RESULTANT SHIFT IN CONVECTION PATTERN.

[Stormcenter]

Actually in my opinion the "best" we can hope for is that nothing develops.
Anyway I'm still looking/hoping for a VERY slow season and even now things still point
to that being the case.

00z CMC

The Canadian model gets into this,but takes a different track than GFS,EURO.It tracks to south of Puerto Rico and slams into Hispanola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

By the way,look at the pics above in this page,how convective is that area South of the CV islands.Instead of convection weakening after the exit from Africa,it has gained.

Yeah that is interesting. The 00Z ECMWF moves it much more west now just north of the leewards/Hispaniola/DR. Then as a tropical wave/weak low into the Bahamas and then Southern FL. In fact looking at the Geopotential 500 hPa, it builds back in the Bermuda High pretty strongly as soon as the big trough lifts out at 168 hours.

It just shows that the ridge/trough setup 7+ days out can definitely change. It's likely going to keep changing. Of course there is only a small chance anything develops in the first place, the best we can hope for.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9071400!!/

[boca]

Stormcenter you have to admit that the area off of Africa looks pretty good right now. Not to say it will develop but its the best area right now with some rotation in it.

[gatorcane]

Stormcenter, I did mean the best we can hope for is that it has only a low chance (i.e. probably won't develop).

Boca, yes that trough is pretty amplified up until about 168 hours but both ECMWF and GFS lift it out pretty quickly by 192 hours and create a Bermuda High in its wake -- with the ECMWF more bullish on the Bermuda High. If the system develops and gets to a position at 65W north of the islands in the timeframe the GFS projects it would recurve after the High builds in...

But if it gets there more slowly (or the wave off Africa develops instead), that High may build in before it can recurve. Obviously this is all way out there in the long-range so there are alot if IFs that likely won't mean anything at this point. It's always interesting to speculate though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Chances for development IMHO are about 5-10% at this point anyway and chances of a recurve before the US if it develops about 85-90% also.

[HURAKAN]

[SEASON_CANCELED]

looks like the front runner is coming off the ITCZ.

[Sanibel]

The front runner is being evaporated by the same airmass that will most likely suck the African disturbance dry too. All we can do is see if it maintains enough strength to make it over the mid-Atlantic SAL zone. At worst I think we are being shown an active CV belt and a sign of things to come. But who ever knows?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The front runner is being evaporated by the same airmass that will most likely suck the African disturbance dry too. All we can do is see if it maintains enough strength to make it over the mid-Atlantic SAL zone. At worst I think we are being shown an active CV belt and a sign of things to come. But who ever knows?

A better assessment. Good call. The shear may do it in around the leewards if that dry air dont kill it


Nobody knows.Been watching for years. Seen it all. 2004 was declared dead around this time and boom it happened.Nobody was worried about the pocket of clouds that became Hurricane andrew in the begining. Dolly was never supposed to be. Owell. Just keep on guessing i guess

[gatorcane]

LOoks good at the moment considering it is only mid July.

The front wave may clear out some SAL allowing this one to be the frontrunner.

[cycloneye]

This pic updates every half an hour.Still hanging there.Click the symbol to get a closeup.





This pic updates every 3 hours but is the closest of the three.

[Aric Dunn]

You know the system farther west .. has helped moisten the ATM quite a bit for the system off africa to move into.. which should help its chances, thats probably why its maintaining better right now

check out the moisture ahead if the system .. plenty to work with as of right now

[Aric Dunn]

Also that first system cleared out quite a bit of the sal leaving a little corridor for the african system,,

man check out the sal ploom heading for the western atlantic .. that one might actually make it to the east coast.. lol .

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actually in my opinion the "best" we can hope for is that nothing develops.
Anyway I'm still looking/hoping for a VERY slow season and even now things still point
to that being the case.

00z CMC

The Canadian model gets into this,but takes a different track than GFS,EURO.It tracks to south of Puerto Rico and slams into Hispanola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

By the way,look at the pics above in this page,how convective is that area South of the CV islands.Instead of convection weakening after the exit from Africa,it has gained.

Yeah that is interesting. The 00Z ECMWF moves it much more west now just north of the leewards/Hispaniola/DR. Then as a tropical wave/weak low into the Bahamas and then Southern FL. In fact looking at the Geopotential 500 hPa, it builds back in the Bermuda High pretty strongly as soon as the big trough lifts out at 168 hours.

It just shows that the ridge/trough setup 7+ days out can definitely change. It's likely going to keep changing. Of course there is only a small chance anything develops in the first place, the best we can hope for.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9071400!!/

The best we can hope for is that the front runner doesn't develop at all, travels the low level Easterlies through the Caribbean than Northwest into the Gulf, finds favorable conditions in the Gulf, is upgraded, in the interest of playing it safe, a hurricane wwarning is issued for the Upper Texas Coast triggering a paid vavcation day for me, but dry air entrainment and a little shear keeps it as a 50 mph tropical storm, with somewhat weaker winds inland, minor tree branch damage, a day at home, and 5 inches of beneficial rain.


Not a forecast, just a best case scenario.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to fight.

[boca]

Continues to fight.

Looks like it has good inflow from the south.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS still thinks the western wave is the frontrunner. That does not appear to be the case.

The long-range GFS runs as to where it will head if it were to develop are not worth much in my opinion. As always we need a consolidated core that the models can initialize.

[lrak]

I think we need it more down this way Ed, so lets move that scenario to about 27n 97w as a strong depression with TONS of rain!

[cycloneye]

The wave in the Central Atlantic still has curvature.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z GFS still thinks the western wave is the frontrunner. That does not appear to be the case.

The long-range GFS runs as to where it will head if it were to develop are not worth much in my opinion. As always we need a consolidated core that the models can initialize.

i was looking at it, and it appears the gfs merges the 2 areas then develops it ..

never mind was looking at the old one .. but it does actually develop them both well at least in terms of as surface low and then the mid atlantic one deepens while the farther east one sort of runs into the back of the other.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

And another thing this run of the gfs looks almost exactly like the Euro. in that its much farther south and the trough is weaker and pulls out faster.