New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[gatorcane]

Euro dvelops this wave and has it in the bahamas at 168 hours.. which seems very fast.. but its a sign of possible development as the gfs also develops this wave..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Not worried at all since the CMC is showing this (even with the SW upgrade I'm not a believer yet based on its track record so far this year)....and the long-range GFS, well we all know its track record this year....

Anyway CMC starts recurving it before the Bahamas anyway, basically I have little interest in this area. Its looking like a quite 10 days or so, then I think it picks up again (exception of course is for those in the path of Bill who have their own problems at the moment). Maybe a system in the Central Atlantic develops based on 18Z GFS runs....no threat to land though. Should draw little interest in general.

[Gustywind]

Interresting snippet from a correspondant of Stormcarib.com: "Dave"...focusing on a possible tropical system that could appear during the next 10-12 days... Whereas as usual let's be prudent and continue to watch all the suspicious areas between Africa and the Leeser Antilles .
http://www.stormcarib.com/
19 Aug 2009 12:25:21 -0000 - Cat 4 Bill


Good morning!

A slightly ragged Category 4 Hurricane Bill continues his WNW journey towards Bermuda. the New England Coast, and eventually, the Canadian provinces at a decent speed of 16 mph. Fortunately for us here in the Caribbean, Bill has decided to take his impression of a pinwheel elsewhere. Wind shear has taken a slight toll on Bill but that should not last long and Bill could even intensify more as it chugs over warmer sea surface waters. Major beach erosion will be a problem along the northern coast of the US as Bill is pushing upwards of 50 foot waves over the open Atlantic with swells expected to reach the Leeward Islands late today into tomorrow probably necessitating coastal flood and rip current advisories.

Behind Bill, another impressive wave is about to exit the African coast but it will be coming off relatively high, around 15N, so should have no real impact on the Caribbean. Another reason no real impact is Bill has taken much of the moisture out of the air and stolen plenty of heat from the seas so the next system does not have many tools to work with. However, the one behind it might be one worth watching in about 10-12 days or so.

We've dodged another bullet but the Atlantic is sure to keep firing so please stay alert.
For those who have asked, I will not attempt to fly with the hurricane hunters into Bill as I have already been into a Cat 5 named Isabel in 2003. I'm looking for another recurving to the north storm around Cat 1 or 2 status for a better perspective on developing storms.

Dave

[Gustywind]

What's up near AFRICA? Seems a bit quiet right now...

[Sanibel]

Hey - Besides Hurricane Bill, the Atlantic really looks negative again just like before.


Really goes to show how an MJO pulse can be the sole factor in triggering development in a season with prevailing negative conditions. Cool.

If another pulse comes in September it should have more bang.

[Frank2]

It does seem that way, and aside from that it seems like the season will end after any September surge - I don't think the pro mets would argue that point, at this point, since the season would likely be nameless without the departing positive MJO surge...

Frank

[otowntiger]

Hey - Besides Hurricane Bill, the Atlantic really looks negative again just like before.


Really goes to show how an MJO pulse can be the sole factor in triggering development in a season with prevailing negative conditions. Cool.

If another pulse comes in September it should have more bang.

Someone please tell me what "MJO" stands for.

[srainhoutx]

Hey - Besides Hurricane Bill, the Atlantic really looks negative again just like before.


Really goes to show how an MJO pulse can be the sole factor in triggering development in a season with prevailing negative conditions. Cool.

If another pulse comes in September it should have more bang.

Someone please tell me what "MJO" stands for.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

[Sanibel]

May have spoken too soon. That convection right on the coast might be in a position to pull the ITCZ into it.

[Aric Dunn]

latest 12z euro .. still devloping something.. it maybe something else and this wave but its consistent on development.. same with gfs ... just the gfs is all over the place with where and when it will form ..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[StormTracker]

Losing daylight, but here is a glimpse of it...



Oops, next time I'll save the pic! My bad!!!

[HURAKAN]

Danny may form in a few days.

[KWT]

Certainly something to keep an eye, as Hurakan has said I'm not sure if its this wave the models are developing but both the ECM and the GFS both develop the same system.

[StormTracker]

Looks like something is trying to get going! It may take a while as others were mentioning last night, developing further west than Bill(scary thought), but then again, who knows what the forces of nature have in store for us!!! As KWT said earlier, "the dry-MJO don't stop this show"!!!

[JonathanBelles]

GFS has something (or two somethings) coming across the atlantic by early next week.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS has something (or two somethings) coming across the atlantic by early next week.

Would think there lies a possibility of one of those making a threat to the east coast.

[StormTracker]

GFS has something (or two somethings) coming across the atlantic by early next week.

Would think there lies a possibility of one of those making a threat to the east coast.

Yeah D4S, that's what I meant earlier when I said "scary thought"! Bill has extracted to some degree, the heat content from the immediate path, and the MJO has gone negative, so if anything was to develop, it would have to have a lot of patience & slowly develop further west and lower than where Bill blew up!!! Just my thoughts...by the way, can someone (with more experience) throw in some graphics showing like the next 5 days synoptics(shear/ SST's/Bermuda-High,etc...thanks...ST

[boca]

GFS has something (or two somethings) coming across the atlantic by early next week.

Would think there lies a possibility of one of those making a threat to the east coast.

Yeah D4S, that's what I meant earlier when I said "scary thought"! Bill has extracted to some degree, the heat content from the immediate path, and the MJO has gone negative, so if anything was to develop, it would have to have a lot of patience & slowly develop further west and lower than where Bill blew up!!! Just my thoughts...by the way, can someone (with more experience) throw in some graphics showing like the next 5 days synoptics(shear/ SST's/Bermuda-High,etc...thanks...ST

This page is a start its all the models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Annie Oakley]

Ha! And to a casual observer weather-watching is easy. Think again.

Hey - Besides Hurricane Bill, the Atlantic really looks negative again just like before.


Really goes to show how an MJO pulse can be the sole factor in triggering development in a season with prevailing negative conditions. Cool.

If another pulse comes in September it should have more bang.

Someone please tell me what "MJO" stands for.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

[Annie Oakley]

What's up near AFRICA? Seems a bit quiet right now...

Whoo! That red picture looks like a picture of Hell lol.....(sorry?!)

[shah8]

the models are hinting that east coast troughiness is perhaps not a permanent enough feature, and long trackers that bend back to the west are possible.