EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

[jinftl]

Fair enough. I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this one. If td7 is taxing the nhc and preventing them from focusing on the system off the nc coast, the end is near!

I have to ask...and I say this with alot of respect for the detail of data you have provided...why is no one jumping on this then at the NHC, NWS offices, even TWC (Dr. Lyons mainly), accuweather or wunderground? There could be 60 mph winds and this still wouldn't be a td. Remember Erika last week....she had convection with winds of that speed but still wasn't labeled a td until recon found an organized center later on. It was labeled by some on here as the best looking invest ever and some were baffled why this wasn't declared a td tuesday night. Radar and satellite can only tell so much, and they can not tell you whether a low is a tropical low or non-tropical.

not paying attention to it.. we have a new TD in the eastern pacific and Atlantic .. also its a little late to put any sort of warnings out.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Fair enough. I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this one. If td7 is taxing the nhc and preventing them from focusing on the system off the nc coast, the end is near!

I have to ask...and I say this with alot of respect for the detail of data you have provided...why is no one jumping on this then at the NHC, NWS offices, even TWC (Dr. Lyons mainly), accuweather or wunderground? There could be 60 mph winds and this still wouldn't be a td. Remember Erika last week....she had convection with winds of that speed but still wasn't labeled a td until recon found an organized center later on. It was labeled by some on here as the best looking invest ever and some were baffled why this wasn't declared a td tuesday night. Radar and satellite can only tell so much, and they can not tell you whether a low is a tropical low or non-tropical.

not paying attention to it.. we have a new TD in the eastern pacific and Atlantic .. also its a little late to put any sort of warnings out.. lol

lol .. well like i said this has happened before in the past.. many times.. small systems go un noticed or just spin up to fast and to close to the coast to really do much about ..

[vacanechaser]

I have to ask...and I say this with alot of respect for the detail of data you have provided...why is no one jumping on this then at the NHC, NWS offices, even TWC (Dr. Lyons mainly), accuweather or wunderground? There could be 60 mph winds and this still wouldn't be a td. Remember Erika last week....she had convection with winds of that speed but still wasn't labeled a td until recon found an organized center later on. It was labeled by some on here as the best looking invest ever and some were baffled why this wasn't declared a td tuesday night. Radar and satellite can only tell so much, and they can not tell you whether a low is a tropical low or non-tropical.

not paying attention to it.. we have a new TD in the eastern pacific and Atlantic .. also its a little late to put any sort of warnings out.. lol

i think the reason behind it is because there is a front associated with it... that was the reason for the one last year off the carolinas not being upgraded... i think the same here.... both should have been labeled at least a t.d. .... certainly the on last year... not sure i understand what they are doing down there in miami any longer...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

I have to ask...and I say this with alot of respect for the detail of data you have provided...why is no one jumping on this then at the NHC, NWS offices, even TWC (Dr. Lyons mainly), accuweather or wunderground? There could be 60 mph winds and this still wouldn't be a td. Remember Erika last week....she had convection with winds of that speed but still wasn't labeled a td until recon found an organized center later on. It was labeled by some on here as the best looking invest ever and some were baffled why this wasn't declared a td tuesday night. Radar and satellite can only tell so much, and they can not tell you whether a low is a tropical low or non-tropical.

not paying attention to it.. we have a new TD in the eastern pacific and Atlantic .. also its a little late to put any sort of warnings out.. lol

i think the reason behind it is because there is a front associated with it... that was the reason for the one last year off the carolinas not being upgraded... i think the same here.... both should have been labeled at least a t.d. .... certainly the on last year... not sure i understand what they are doing down there in miami any longer...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yeah that makes sense too .. the stationary trough they have on the map is weak .. like i said oh well..

temp and dew point profile say its warm core.. pressure is there, closed circ..

but there is a line on a map that says its not a TD .. lol

['CaneFreak]

I have to ask...and I say this with alot of respect for the detail of data you have provided...why is no one jumping on this then at the NHC, NWS offices, even TWC (Dr. Lyons mainly), accuweather or wunderground? There could be 60 mph winds and this still wouldn't be a td. Remember Erika last week....she had convection with winds of that speed but still wasn't labeled a td until recon found an organized center later on. It was labeled by some on here as the best looking invest ever and some were baffled why this wasn't declared a td tuesday night. Radar and satellite can only tell so much, and they can not tell you whether a low is a tropical low or non-tropical.

not paying attention to it.. we have a new TD in the eastern pacific and Atlantic .. also its a little late to put any sort of warnings out.. lol

i think the reason behind it is because there is a front associated with it... that was the reason for the one last year off the carolinas not being upgraded... i think the same here.... both should have been labeled at least a t.d. .... certainly the on last year... not sure i understand what they are doing down there in miami any longer...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yeah...whats up with that? This thing is definitely tropical...what in the world Jesse?

[jinftl]

Or the NHC is in cahoots with NOAA and they realize that if we make this system a td....and then possibly a named system, along with TD7 about to be Fred, we would have 7 named systems a day or 2 ahead of the midpoint of the season (climatologic peak on Sept 10). That would seem to put the forecast of 7-11 named storms for the season on the path to being in jeopardy....essentially, they need to scale back upgrading to preserve season forecast integrity. or not.

['CaneFreak]

Or the NHC is in cahoots with NOAA and they realize that if we make this system a td....and then possibly a named system, along with TD7 about to be Fred, we would have 7 named systems a day or 2 ahead of the midpoint of the season (climatologic peak on Sept 10). That would seem to put the forecast of 7-11 named storms for the season on the path to being in jeopardy....essentially, they need to scale back upgrading to preserve season forecast integrity. or not.

nah...they are not worried about that...they have been wrong MANY times before...and so have I...LOL

[Aric Dunn]

well actually even if its attached .. somewhat to a weak trough .. not even STD..

now doppler velocities are showing winds of 43 to 48 kts.. ! about 1500 ft

[Tstormwatcher]

Was wondering myself why this isn't even mentioned by anyone with the obvious closed low. it has been raining here since very early this morning, I live between New Bern and Havelock, and we have had 2.75 inches so far. Pressure has been slowly falling and is now at 29.95 in. Winds have picked up a bit since this morning up to maybe 15 to 20mph in gusts.

[HURAKAN]

The low is still attached

[HURAKAN]

857
ABNT20 KNHC 072339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Aric Dunn]

hehe.. that was completely expected.. lol

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[vacanechaser]

i thought this is what sub-tropical storms were for??..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jinftl]

whether it was still yellow or upgraded, you win. if only they knew what you did.

if sustained ts winds reach the coastline, the nhc will have alot to explain....and they would look alot more competent putting out warnings for a rapidly developing system close to the coast than not putting up warnings and sustained ts conditions take place and no one was warned. right now, putting up ts warnings for 15-20 mph winds with a few higher gusts in heavier convection would place many states under such warnings. we had a gust to 34 mph by me in a storm earlier. hmmm.

hehe.. that was completely expected.. lol

[george_r_1961]

i thought this is what sub-tropical storms were for??..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree this isnt a purely tropical system but I think theres enough there to classify this as in STS.

Not my call though.

[Aric Dunn]

i thought this is what sub-tropical storms were for??..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

exactly.. what i was thinking..

[capepoint]

well, whatever it is, looks like it is coming ashore a little southwest of me. radar from mhx looks like a strong band of something about to move onto the beach here. am starting to see a little lightning now, still moderate rains, no major flooding reported yet. winds still about 10-15 from east(ish). will let you know what we get.

[Stephanie]

Yeah, this one is forecasted to make for an ugly Tuesday and Wednesday here and in the mid to upper 60's. YUCK!

[vacanechaser]

i am seeing reports and have talked to mark sudduth and he reported that roads were closed due to flooding from wilmington to top sail island...

looks like the low has stalled to me... not much movement... will be interesting to see what happens with it tomorrow... lots of rain forecast for the area here in va.. flood watches issued too..




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team