Western Caribbean / SW Gulf Development??

[Agua]

Lots of showers down there. Any potential TC developing between Nicaragua and Jamica this time of the year gets my attention because it will be in the area of Hebert Box #2 for South Florida.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

Correct me if I am wrong, but if I remember correctly, you are looking at the Hebert Box/Florida correlation incorrectly. It doesnt mean that a system passing through the Hebert Box is historically more likely to hit Florida. Rather it means that historically storms that have hit Florida have passed through a Hebert Box. Is this correct ?

My recollection, yes. Hebert Box is a "sorta" necessary , but not sufficient condition of a major hitting So Fla.

[Blown Away]

Yes and the last SFL strike went through the box.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, 1995, is a classic example that the box doesn't always work.

[wxman57]

No development from this first wave, but there's another just reaching the eastern Caribbean this afternoon. That wave will be in the western Caribbean in 3-4 days. Let's see if it flares up there, too.

[IvanSurvivor]

No development from this first wave, but there's another just reaching the eastern Caribbean this afternoon. That wave will be in the western Caribbean in 3-4 days. Let's see if it flares up there, too.

Is that the one just east of the Lesser Antilles I asked about this morning?

[BigA]

It looks like the MJO phase should be more favorable for the next wave. It is already shifted to negative (enhancing convection) in the Western Caribbean and southern GOM, the only parts of the Atlantic basin that are "green."

[IvanSurvivor]

How does a newbie identify a "wave" on a map or satellite? Specifically the one about to enter the Caribbean. Does a wave always have convection associated with it and what is the best type of map/satellite to use to identify new waves/about to be waves?

[Orrie]

If you pull up the loops from the NHC you can highlight a box titled "NWS Fronts" and a tropical wave will appear as a broken yellow line on the map. I just did this to see if there would be an example for you, but at the moment there aren't any waves identified on the map.

[IvanSurvivor]

:uarrow: If you pull up the loops from the NHC you can highlight a box titled "NWS Fronts" and a tropical wave will appear as a broken yellow line on the map. I just did this to see if there would be an example for you, but at the moment there aren't any waves identified on the map.

Thanks!

[Nimbus]

Some convection this morning in the southern part of the Bay of Campeche. Last chance for the current wave in this area before Mexico.

[gatorcane]

No development from this first wave, but there's another just reaching the eastern Caribbean this afternoon. That wave will be in the western Caribbean in 3-4 days. Let's see if it flares up there, too.

That's the one that the GFS has been flaring up consistently on each run I have seen this week (and now developing a weak low in the WCAR in 7 days). Something to watch for sure has there will be lower pressures across the WCAR as well.

Here is the 00Z GFS, 5 days from now, plenty of convection and moisture that could spin up into something. Also H5 charts would indicate that it would lift northward should it develop so something to watch for sure.

[lrak]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
924 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.UPDATE...GOING TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP INCREASING THE INSTABILITY
INLAND. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE RISE WITH PWATS FROM THE MORNING
SOUNDING CAME BACK AT 2.5 INCHES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. A WEAK SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP AND HELP WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A TROPICAL LINK TO THE DEEP MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE WITH DEEP CONVECTION FROM TAMPICO TO SOUTH INTO THE SW
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW NEAR THE
CENTER OF CONVECTION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. LATEST RUN OF THE RUC NOW INDICATES SHOWERS
DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER INLAND SO DECIDED TO SPREAD LIKELY POPS TO
HIGHWAY 77 AND HIGH END CHANCE TO HIGHWAY 281 IN HIDALGO. WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 1
TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD JUST A FEW DEGREES WITH THE WARMER
START OF THE DAY.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I wonder if we'll get another one of those inland lows like last week?


using the visible loop and running it fast it sure looks like a small spin right off the coast of Mex., just East of Tampico?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[wxman57]

Wind shear looks VERY strong across the Caribbean now. That wave in the eastern Caribbean today has no chance of developing unless it makes it to the BoC. And even then, it's questionable.

[BigA]

It doesn´t counteract or overcome shear, but for what its worth the convection supporting MJO is on the march eastward across the Gulf and Caribbean

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... thly.shtml

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Lots of convection inland. And too much shear.



Joke Alert:
KANYE WEST Issued His First Tropical Update On the Caribbean Area:

Yo-- Caribbean Wave- Im Real Happy For you- and Imma Let you Finish...
But Bill had one of the best spins of all time.

Sorry I couldn't Resist.

[Typhoon_Willie]

LOL!!!
Then Tropical Wave goes on "The View" to say Kanye has not appologized yet.
Kanye then apologizies later lol!

[Sanibel]

A look at the satellite shot shows a big dome of negativity over the Caribbean.

[jinftl]

There may be a dome of negativity over the Caribbean, but TCHP readings show a hugh cauldron of heated positivity below the surface in the western caribbean.....latest update shown below (9/15/09 data.....but this image has been consistent for months in terms of tchp readings and isn't changing any time soon). TCHP much higher than on the same date in 2007 & 2008. Let's hope this never has a chance of getting tapped into over the next 8 weeks.

TCHP on 9/15/09:


Compared to 9/15/08:


And 9/15/07:

A look at the satellite shot shows a big dome of negativity over the Caribbean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Let's hope El Nino Shear prevents anything from developing in the
Caribbean. I think El Nino Shear may save us here.
That heat content is very high.

:uarrow: LOL!!!
Then Tropical Wave goes on "The View" to say Kanye has not appologized yet.
Kanye then apologizies later lol!

ROFL!!!

[Sanibel]

There may be a dome of negativity over the Caribbean, but TCHP readings show a hugh cauldron of heated positivity below the surface in the western caribbean.....

Yeah, there's a very humid hurricane ripe 'feel' down here tonight.