Possible GOM/Caribbean development

[tailgater]

Just looking at the Visible Sat loop of this area sure looks like a low may be forming, probably not down to the surface but the inflow seems to be increasing around an area south of the blob.

Still don't see how it could develop unless it stays down there a while.

[ROCK]

Tailgater, I would put a center there as well...any idea why the NHC is not even calling this an INVEST? obviously going to impact the Keys and SFL tomorrow...

[tolakram]

I marked on this image what appears to be inflow trails building into the convection blob.

This is not a forecast, just an observation.

[brunota2003]

I've been watching the southern two since this morning. But on the loop, the clouds appeared to be heading away from the convection, versus towards it.

[tailgater]

Tailgater, I would put a center there as well...any idea why the NHC is not even calling this an INVEST? obviously going to impact the Keys and SFL tomorrow...

No pressure falls and no models suggesting development. I guess.

[KWT]

Yep that region looks about right for any 'center' of this system, however the convection is shooting off to the north and I think the system is got very little chance of doing anything.

tolakram, I was thinking that as well actually earlier on when I was watching the loops.

[wxman57]

I've been watching the southern two since this morning. But on the loop, the clouds appeared to be heading away from the convection, versus towards it.

Good observation. There isn't much, if any, surface convergence. The 21Z plot with satellite doesn't indicate anything forming. Surface winds aren't blowing toward any low center. Pressures aren't falling except for the normal daytime dip. Time for possible development is very limited (almost gone) as wind shear increases north of 20N. I don't think the NHC is too concerned with it as it has no model support for development and wind shear increases with each mile it moves north. Just a rainmaker for Florida by midweek.

[littlevince]

Convection dying

visible loop since 13:15z


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[wxman57]

Not much convection left now. It's chance of development, though it was slight, appears to be gone.

[gatorcane]

Shear may be dropping, but it's still high in the region and it increases as the disturbance moves NE:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

By the time it enters the Gulf, wind shear is in the 40 kt range, with 50 kts across Florida. So it's chances of development decrease significantly as it moves northward. That bright red on the map posted above is a jet core moving across the central to southern Gulf and Florida. Very strong winds aloft.

Just popping my head in now after the blob in the Western Caribbean has gone poof. Anyway, not concerned at all this weekend about Agatha or remnants regenerating in the Caribbean. Hope everybody had an opportunity to enjoy the long holiday weekend.

Regarding the shear WxMan mentions in his post, however, will make a comment on that. Indeed without even a shear chart one could observe the anvils of the towering cumulonimbus here in SE FL blowing up in the interior parts of the state. The anvils from these storms were literally getting sheared apart towards the east most of the weekend. I saw anvils of some storms that extended out 40-50 miles to the east from where the actual convection was blowing up. That was proof of the extreme amount of shear that is still present over most of the GOM, NW Caribbean, and all of Florida. Yeah, a reminder it was still May afterall.

[cycloneye]

First mention and circle about something on the 2010 season.

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM AGATHA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...PARTICULARLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

Persistent little thing ... not much else to say!

[NDG]

Well, our little system surely does not want to die off that quickly. If anything UL conditions are even better than yesterday, its only negativity this morning is how close to land the surface trough or weak low is located to land.
Nice inflow well indicated on vis sat this morning.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it stays put for 2 days before moving anywhere, what will the shear be doing to the NE of it then? Is the GOM and FL penninsula shear expected to increase or decrease?

[KWT]

Not a bad looking convective ball there I have to say and if it can hold a similar apperence through the day then can't totally rule out an invest from this system.

As has been pointed out conditions actually aren't all that bad for this system and whilst the shear the worst of it is still located to the north with this convection sitting on the NW side of an upper high.

This system cannot get any further north if it is to have any real shot at doing something, shear is still between 30-40 the whole way across the Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

If it stays put for 2 days before moving anywhere, what will the shear be doing to the NE of it then? Is the GOM and FL penninsula shear expected to increase or decrease?

[KWT]

So the shear drops to about 15-20kts in the Gulf in 24hrs before the next jet streak comes through. Interesting but I think the only shot it has to develop is if it stays exactly where it is, esp given its right on the edge of the Upper high as it is.

[tolakram]

Kind of hard to ignore as it's the biggest blob in the Atlantic at the moment.



The TPW loop seems to locate most of the spin over land.



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[srainhoutx]

NWS Key West not too impressed this morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
359 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS CONVECTION HAS INITIATED
READILY ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
SERVICE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS
INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE AGATHA) IS STREAMING OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE KEYS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEADY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN IN THE LOWER 80S.

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH RESIDES OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN.
ALOFT...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS AIDING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE SURGES PWATS
UP TO OVER 2 INCHES LATER THIS MORNING. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT TO ACT ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THE MONDAY EVENING KEY WEST SOUNDING DEPICTED MODERATE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT...
AND MOISTURE WAS ALREADY PRESENT UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...UNLIKE
MOST OF THE PAST MONTH WHEN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO THE
LOW LEVELS ONLY. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT
THE WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL BE SHEARED APART...WITH SEVERAL PIECES PASSING NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ABOVE FACTORS POINT TO
ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM ITS HIGH
POPS OF EARLIER RUNS...FEEL GIVEN SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THAT THE
MOS NUMBERS ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW END LIKELY
POPS OF 60 PERCENT FOR TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH CHANCE 50 POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

[KWT]

Yeah any circulation is probably either near the coast or onshore now Mark which would make sense given the convective blob is a touch to the east. Quite a nice circular convective mass though it has to be said, your right its hard to ignore!