Models show low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS, GFDL and past runs of HWRF have been seeing this, as well as Bob Breck's VIPIR model.


Strong consistency for a system that's less than three days out.

Add the CMC, Euro, and NAM - although a weaker version in ECM and NAM.

Can you post the EURO for me?

[Frank P]

The more I look at it the more it appears to be at the surface.. looks like not much convection associated with it at the low level, and shear looks to be pretty bad in the NE GOM at the moment.. but its something to watch for sure..

[HURAKAN]

TS Edouard, 2008, could be another analog

[BigA]

CMC develops this to a tropical storm (SHOCKING!) but takes it the other way, crossing Florida.

[HURAKAN]

And who can forget the most famous of them all!! Hurricane Danny, 1997

[NOLA2010]

GFS, GFDL and past runs of HWRF have been seeing this, as well as Bob Breck's VIPIR model.


Strong consistency for a system that's less than three days out.

Add the CMC, Euro, and NAM - although a weaker version in ECM and NAM.

Can you post the EURO for me?

I am not sure what he was talking about, EURO hasn't developed anything...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[HURAKAN]

Watching Central Gulf Coast for Tropical Development

Moisture lingering along the central Gulf of Mexico near Alex will be watched closely for possible development this weekend, since atmospheric gears are already in place.

It is highly unusual during July to get a front buried as deep into the South as we do this week. Sometimes, when this happens, a tropical system can form.

A massive area of high pressure spinning clockwise to the north would seem to be a deterrent for that sort of problem. However, things are not as they appear.

The northeast wind created by the high to the north, combined with a south to southeast flow over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, may be enough to get the atmosphere spinning counterclockwise, the motion needed for tropical cyclone development.

We already have a zone of drenching showers and thunderstorms in place, delivered in part by Alex's northwest movement from the tropics last weekend and in part by the upward motion along the old stalled front nearby.

Look for the zone of unsettled weather with locally drenching showers and thunderstorms to continue through the weekend from Florida to coastal Texas this weekend.

While the gusty downpours along the Gulf coast will offer some temporary relief from the heat, they will cause disruptions to containment and cleanup operations on the beaches and offshore.

While the risk of full tropical development is not extremely high this close to the coast over the next three to five days, the chance is far from zero. The area is of concern to Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi and many other AccuWeather.com meteorologists.

The area from the Florida Panhandle to coastal Louisiana could slowly brew the next tropical disturbance or depression of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Any system that forms in this immediate area could lead to more extensive disruptions for oil spill cleanup and containment from squalls and building wave action.

The circulation around any system that forms could drive oil inland or to more distant locations.

[Tireman4]

Oh great, more rain for us in the Houston/Galveston area...

[fwbbreeze]

snipet from NWS Mobile

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...LOOKS LIKE MODEL
OUTPUT CALCULATIONS ARE PRETTY CONGRUENT ON THE 00Z CYCLE FOR TAU 00
TO 36. THEN FROM TAU 48 TO 72, SCATTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
PROBLEM OF THE BAROTROPIC WAVE OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OUR SKEPTICISM REMAINS FOR 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT ONE
CAN ALMOST UNDERSTAND WHY THE MODEL SUITE IS PICKING THIS UP. IT
APPEARS THEY`RE ALL GRABBING AN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SATELLITE
FEATURE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR, THAT PROPAGATES
SOUTH AGAINST THE MEAN LAYER FLOW. WE BELIEVE THAT FEATURE IS BEING
GROWN IN THE GRIDS AND IS WINDING UP IN SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSITIONS,
OR STATES OF EXISTENCE, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL WE LOOK AT. AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING, FOR TAU 48, THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE MAJOR
PROPONENTS OF THIS FEATURE, AND THE OTHERS, THE GEM, UKMET, AND NAM,
TEND TO DAMPEN IT. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THE NAYSAYERS GET ON THE
BANDWAGON AND DEVELOP THE THING ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHWEST PASS TO OFF
PANAMA CITY. THEN, WITH ONLY THE AVAILABILITY OF THE GEM, ECMWF, AND
GFS, THE ECMWF LOSES ALL TRACK OF IT AND THE OTHER TWO KEEP IT
HANGING AROUND ALONG THE BEACH. AS FOR THIS FRONT, WHICH LOOKS LIKE
IT WANTS TO STAGE A PAS-DE-DEUX WITH THAT BAROTROPIC FEATURE, IT IS
BRINGING IN DRY AIR WHICH SHOWS PROPENSITY TO ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST
BY FRIDAY. POPS WERE SCALED BACK INTO FRIDAY, WITH A STEEP GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST INDICATING RAIN OFFSHORE AND DRY INLAND. IT IS HARD
FOR FRONTS TO GET THIS FAR SOUTH THIS TIME OF YEAR, BECAUSE THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS AND ABSENCE OF A STRONG JET STREAM, INDIRECT
JET CIRCULATIONS, AND AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING, ALL TENDING TO BE
MINIMAL, AND HENCE, WE HAVE FRONTOLYSIS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS KEEPS HANGING TIGHT
ON THE BAROTROPIC FEATURE THROUGH TAU 240 WANDERING AIMLESSLY AROUND
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MOBILE AND BATON ROUGE. MEANWHILE THE
WAVENUMBER 5 PICTURE INDICATES THE OVERALL DOMINANCE OF AN RIDGE AT
500 MB, SO THE EFFECT OF THIS AS A RAINMAKER MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF
THE MARK. BAS IT WAS SAID BEFORE, 6 TO 8 INCHES AND MORE EVERY 6
HOURS LOOKED WRONG, AND THIS CYCLE, THE WHOLE GROUP BACKED OFF THOSE
FIGURES BY ALMOST A FACTOR OF TWO. WE USED THE EVEN SMALLER NUMBERS
OFFERED IN HPC GUIDANCE.

[BigA]

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

12Z WRF run. Takes a low westward toward Louisiana.

[ronjon]

can you post the EURO for me?

I am not sure what he was talking about, EURO hasn't developed anything...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

The reason you don't see it on the Euro model output is that it is low resolution.

From the NWS BTR office AFD:

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB FORMING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LOCATION HAS SHIFTED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. THE 00Z RUN
TODAY SHOWS THE LOW FORMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN THE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHILE THE 00Z
CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AS THE GFS BUT SLOWER

[Ivanhater]

This better not cancel the fireworks show downtown Pensacola for the 4th of July...doesn't look good

[rockyman]

That low-level circulation is really getting going over the Florida/Georgia stateline

[baygirl_1]

And who can forget the most famous of them all!! Hurricane Danny, 1997

No, no, NO!!! That was a nightmare that went on for days and days and days.... we really needed an ark! Now, with all that oil out there.... don't even want to think about it! (Burying my head in the sand now...!)

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmm south of Applachacloa looks like an
area to keep an eye on. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Weatherfreak000]

can you post the EURO for me?

I am not sure what he was talking about, EURO hasn't developed anything...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

The reason you don't see it on the Euro model output is that it is low resolution.

From the NWS BTR office AFD:

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB FORMING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LOCATION HAS SHIFTED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. THE 00Z RUN
TODAY SHOWS THE LOW FORMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN THE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHILE THE 00Z
CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AS THE GFS BUT SLOWER

The EURO has been known to underdevelop these lows at times (Even not showing Alex developing at all, like the GFS), but the amount of model evidence compared to what ive been seeing, I am finding a hard time believing we will make it to July 5th without our next invest.

[HURAKAN]

Low attached to a cold front by hours 48 and 72 according to TPC.

Ivan, I think the fireworks are a distant possibility at this point!

[Weatherfreak000]

Low attached to a cold front by hours 48 and 72 according to TPC.

Ivan, I think the fireworks are a distant possibility at this point!

WOW and the HPC is jumping aboard. To think such a sequence of events in the GOM immediately under the highest SST's recordable in the GOM.


I am not liking this scenario. Fireworks definitely do not seem likely.

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER FORECAST:

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER THE N WATERS FRI WITH A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS S OF THE THE FL PANHANDLE. THE
GFS SOLUTION IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPS A 30 KT LOW AND
TRACKS IT W ACROSS MS DELTA THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
A WEAKER LOW OF ABOUT 1013 MB TO 1014 MB WITH WITH WINDS OF
15-20 KT...AND WITH SEAS MAXING UP TO 7 FT.

[poof121]

CMC has it dancing around Florida, Georgia, Atlantic, and the NE gulf.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010070112&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation