Is the 2010 season still on track towards 18+ or not?

[Stormcenter]

In general I meant to say. Those were rare.

The meat and potatoes of the season in my opinion is between August 15 and Sept. 15.

Rita, Wilma and Mitch all came after 9/15, i.e., 3 of the strongest hurricanes ever.

[Frank2]

I think when all is said and done it will be
closer to climatology. I just can't imagine
how anyone can predict a number when there
are so many things that have to take place
for it to pan out.

I agree, and that's why the HRD/NHC folks of 25 years ago didn't subscribe to this way of thinking, but with the technology of today some do believe that way of thinking is possible - apparently they forgot that nature still behaves today the same way it did 2,000 years ago (except for man-made pollution's impact on weather, as a result of technology)...

[ronjon]

I think when all is said and done it will be
closer to climatology. I just can't imagine
how anyone can predict a number when there
are so many things that have to take place
for it to pan out.

I agree, and that's why the HRD/NHC folks of 25 years ago didn't subscribe to this way of thinking, but with the technology of today some do believe that way of thinking is possible - apparently they forgot that nature still behaves today the same way it did 2,000 years ago (except for man-made pollution's impact on weather, as a result of technology)...

No offense, but these two statements reflect a general lack of understanding of global meteorology. While people tend to get "hung up" on exact numbers, all signals point to a much above active season. Yesterday, I posted the various predictions from a number of research entities from Jeff Masters Blog which all show a much more active season than climatology (anywhere from 17 to 23 named storms). These predictions are based not only on statistical analogs (in other words, similar atmospheric patterns produced a like number of storms in the past) but on the use of high-powered global atmospheric models such as what the UKMET and FSU researchers utilized. Many of these global models use a multitude of initial conditions in an ensemble approach to reach a final answer. Simply ignoring or dismissing this data and research reflects a woeful misunderstanding of science.

[Frank2]

No offense taken - but I still disagree with you...

I can't count the number of times various scientists have said (on topics from meteorology to astronomy to volcanology to medicine), "It shows how little we know", or, "What happened has rewritten our understanding of this topic", and in today's world it seems there's more than a little (or a lot) or arrongance when it comes to thinking we have a grasp on how nature behaves and why...

The oil spill and "where the oil will go" is a very good example - based on computer models, how many boldy predicted the oil would already be here in South Florida - thankfully they were wrong, but of course as a Christian I'd have to tell them that it's due to the unknowns of nature - and the many prayers that are being answered (or vice versa)...

For a number of years I worked for the folks who developed a number of hurricane models still in use today, and I always had complete respect for them and their work (we certainly typed enough of their journal articles - lol), but from my years with them I learned that while they always worked to understand and/or explain tropical meteorology, they also were also humble enough to know that they were like an ant trying to understand why an elephant prefers peanuts over peanut butter (lol) - we understand so little, though it gives us comfort (in a misguided sense) to believe that we know so much, and that doesn't mean that research meteorologists should give up trying to better understand tropical weather systems - it just means that everyone needs to accept a certain level of humility...

Sure, there's a decent chance that the season might or even will get busy very soon, but as others mentioned there's so much that can impact a season that it's almost useless to say exactly what might happen, when the weather system responsible doesn't even exist, and that was the argument of many professional meteorolgists 25 years ago and earlier, who believed in the "on the map" way of thinking when it came to not worrying about what might happen tomorrow (or next month)...

Since I worked on both sides of the fence, that's the difference between research meteorology and operational meteorology - one is about events that have happened or might happen, and the other is about weather currently taking place - of course it's much easier to forecast something if the weather system is overhead, versus something that is forecast to happen months from now, but the operational forecasters rely on the models created by the research meteorologist, so one hand washes the other (with rain water - lol), and it's all to the good, as long as folks don't get ahead of themselves, like the well-funded but arrogant research guy in Twister, who ended up somewhere in Kansas...

Frank

[KWT]

I can see both sides of that arguement, whilst I do think you can get a pretty good indicator from the obvious things I do think there are small factors that may be difficult to call, for example I'm pretty certain no one saw the TUTT in 2007 that sheared so many of the MDR systems and that prevented most systems from becoming stronger then maybe they could have been.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Evening to all,

I have been around a few years, but rarely post. I had to change my log on name, could not seem to log in LoL. Frank2 your post was very well put together, and it's nice to see that everyone can post an opinon, and not offend anyone. There was a time this year when nothing in the tropics was really going, yet responses to other post were rude.
Thanks for making this form the reason I signed on.

[Frank2]

Your very welcome, and thanks for your compliment, and welcome to this web site!

As mentioned elsewhere, it does seem there are one or two waves in the eastern Atlantic that bear watching today, and that's why I'd never be one to say "season over" (sounds better than "season cancel"), since we aren't even into the busiest porition of the season, but at the same time it's impossible to say what can really happen - certainly no one thought that 2005 would bring Katrina - but it happened...

It's just as well - if we knew exactly was going to happen tomorrow, next week or next month, we wouldn't be able to sleep tonight...

Frank

[Category 5]

Ask me this question in about 5 weeks.

[cycloneye]

Here are great graphics that show comparisons of different years and 2010 so far. 2010 so far is average but above average in the hurricanes. I am sure the friendly arguments will continue after this post.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/ ... c-2010.htm

[hurricaneCW]

We are very average right now. Alex was an impressive beginning, but I'm very disappointed how July has gone so far. I would be completely surprised if we don't get one named system this month. If we don't get a system, then there is no way some of those high forecasts will verify. The numbers would be more around 14-16 (closer to 14) than 18+. I am looking at quality though. For me, it's not about the numbers, but what becomes of them. I'm interested to see how the next few weeks turn out heading into early August.

[wxman57]

Over the past several decades, researchers have made considerable strides forward in identifying seasonal parameters (oceanic and atmospheric) which can signal greater or lesser activity than a typical season. But we'll never be able to predict the exact number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes months in advance. I think that we can still say with confidence that 2010 will very likely have a significantly above normal number of storms. Every indicator says so. The exact number - no one can say.

I think that in order to arrive at the 18 or 19 named storms predicted for 2010, we will probably need to see at least 1 or 2 named storms form by the beginning of August. We could still see 18 named storms even if there is no additional named storm by August 1st, but it's less likely.

One problem is that the MJO is stuck in the Indian Ocean now. It's been there all season, rather weak and refusing to move. It's one reason the West Pac has been so dead. This is very similar to 1998's start, and 1998 is one of our main analogs for 2010. The 1998 season didn't get started until July 27th but it continued into December. Another negative may the the predicted decrease in rising air after the next 7-10 days by a number of models (I'll just post the links below):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

The models are indicating a decreasing development chance the last week of July and first week of August. With no MJO signal on the horizon, this could slow the real start of the season considerably, possibly until mid August (vs. Aug 1). But once it gets started, it should go like gangbusters through September, into October and probably not end until mid November or later.

My prediction? Originally I said 17/10/5, I think. That still looks quite reasonable to me, particularly since the NHC is quite a bit more generous with its naming policy than in the past. Realistically, probably 14-16 named storms. But it's all in where they hit, not how many. And this still looks like a devastating season for the Caribbean and the U.S.

[cycloneye]

57,you initially had those numbers as preliminary at the Storm2k 2010 poll, but then, you changed to more upward numbers to make them final.

101-Wxman57=17/10/5 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=18/11/5 ACE=200 / Date of Change=5/30/10

[hurricaneCW]

We may have to wait until mid August for a system? Based on those maps, it would appear so. We would also lack or lose all African waves because of the strength of the Azores high producing wave after wave of dry air. Wouldn't it be amazing if we only see an average number of storms despite every indication that it would be well above average. What would that say about everything? I'll take a 2004 type of season where it started late and ended strong. The unfavorable conditions are also shown by the models. The gfs hasn't shown much in the way of a tropical system even way out into its long range. Usually it would show a few of them. Unless the models accuracy has improved by a lot.

[cycloneye]

57,you initially had those numbers as preliminary at the Storm2k 2010 poll, but then, you changed to more upward numbers to make them final.

101-Wxman57=17/10/5 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=18/11/5 ACE=200 / Date of Change=5/30/10

Ah, OK, my 17/10/5 numbers are in our internal office contest. Hedging my bet.

You quoted in my post without making another post but that's ok.

Your numbers look good at this point. I have at the poll 15/9/4, not bad as I see what is going on.

[wxman57]

57,you initially had those numbers as preliminary at the Storm2k 2010 poll, but then, you changed to more upward numbers to make them final.

101-Wxman57=17/10/5 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=18/11/5 ACE=200 / Date of Change=5/30/10

Ah, OK, my 17/10/5 numbers are in our internal office contest. Hedging my bet.

You quoted in my post without making another post but that's ok.

Your numbers look good at this point. I have at the poll 15/9/4, not bad as I see what is going on.

Yeah, I just noticed. Have to get used to hitting the "quote" button vs. the "edit" button on each post. I'll try not to delete the entire internet by mistake. All these new controls on the forum...

[thetruesms]

Yeah, I just noticed. Have to get used to hitting the "quote" button vs. the "edit" button on each post. I'll try not to delete the entire internet by mistake. All these new controls on the forum...

subtle brag post

I like how when I chose 19 instead of 17 or 18 in the contest, that I even said at the time that I'd probably regret it and I'd need NHC to throw in a cheap named storm. Well, looks like I missed two chances to get that cheap storm already

[southerngale]

57,you initially had those numbers as preliminary at the Storm2k 2010 poll, but then, you changed to more upward numbers to make them final.

101-Wxman57=17/10/5 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=18/11/5 ACE=200 / Date of Change=5/30/10

Ah, OK, my 17/10/5 numbers are in our internal office contest. Hedging my bet.

You quoted in my post without making another post but that's ok.

Your numbers look good at this point. I have at the poll 15/9/4, not bad as I see what is going on.

Yeah, I just noticed. Have to get used to hitting the "quote" button vs. the "edit" button on each post. I'll try not to delete the entire internet by mistake. All these new controls on the forum...

LOL - I think every mod has done that before as it's an easy mistake.

[barometerJane61]

Don't judge the entire season on July.Historically,September is the busiest period for hurricane season.I think we will see 4 or 5 storms form in August,and about the same in September

[Frank2]

Wouldn't it be amazing if we only see an average number of storms despite every indication that it would be well above average. What would that say about everything?

Well, 2006 was a great example...

How many here, 4 years ago this second, were jumping up and down thinking that it was to be a continuation of 2005 - based on professional opinion - which was to become totally untrue because of an earlier and stronger than expected El Nino, and that is why I can't repeat it enough times that the NHC/HRD folks of 25 years ago did not subscribe to seasonal forecasts - they are just too unreliable because of the many factors involved that could change a forecast one way or another, and they knew to risk making that sort of forecast was to also risk damaging their professional credibility...

Even the SFWMD was taken in by the Spring 2006 warnings of "a continuation of 2005" - they were made to believe the warnings that "another Katrina is very possible in 2006", and solely on fear alone, based on many dire warnings, released too much water from Lake Okeechobee which resulted in a long-term water shortage for South Florida...

Now, I do agree that it seems this hurricane season will be busier than the past few, but as wxman57 said, to know exactly how many is unknown to us all, and it is very interesting to read that the MJO cycle is "stuck" on the other side of the world for an unknown period of time....

If I haven't learned anything else at my age, it's to know that there are all sorts of unknowns in this life - who would have guessed that it would take 3 months to resolve (hopefully) the oil cap problem?

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

i'm going to lay low myself and trust what others are saying as far as it not getting really active until mid August....

One thing for sure, can you imagine if for whatever strange reason it wasn't an active year at all? Wow, I can't even fathom what kinda crap the NHC would have to deal with based on their earlier predictions, especially because so many sources are forecasting a very active season.

Just playing devil's advocate here, but if by chance it wasn't a very active season, I don't think anyone would listen to the hurricane predictions ever again.....I realize that forecasts have been wrong in the past, but this would be a "big oops!".... I mean, what would be the point of paying attention to predictions anymore if this year happened to be way off?

Again, just playing devil's advocate, because based on what I'm hearing from the Pros here and on TV, it's still going to be a very active year, so we should go out an get things done while we can, because we know how addicting this board can be once the ball gets rolling....