Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[Fego]

At 0145 UTC... frankly I prefer to wait and see 12-24 more hours.


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[RL3AO]

I'd be surprised if the NHC doesn't mention it. Probably 10% or maybe 20.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't know, the southern part has poofed, but the northern part still looks convective. I can't tell if it's going to stay together or not...It might poof by tomorrow. We've been through this before.

[wxman57]

What's your thoughts wxman?

We've been conducting a study of the MIMIC TPW wave signatures for developing tropical waves in order to better predict development potential. Just looking at the current TPW loop, the pattern is not what we'd typically see prior to development. Lots of dry air sinking south off the west coast of Africa. It may take this wave and the wave behind it to moisten the atmosphere back up enough for development in the Tropical Atlantic. That's not to say it may not have a short in 7-10 days in the western Caribbean.

Latest TPW loop:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

You can go back in the archive at that site and look at the TPW signatures prior to the development of named storms to get an idea what to look for.

[Ivanhater]

Looks good, and with the GFS who has been insistent on not seeing anything develop this season on board, this probably has the best chance of developing we have seen all season (in the eastern atl)

[cycloneye]

Here is loop of the images that updates every 15 minutes. Link is at first post.



Still image that updates every 15 minutes.

[GeneratorPower]

Going by that loop, it looks to me like you have some eastward moving clouds at the lwoer levels. Assuming the perspective is correct. That is, if the clouds are moving east, the winds must be from the west.

[cycloneye]

By the way,in the loop I posted, if you look closely,there is another strong wave in the West-Central part of Africa.

[thetruesms]

We've been conducting a study of the MIMIC TPW wave signatures for developing tropical waves in order to better predict development potential. Just looking at the current TPW loop, the pattern is not what we'd typically see prior to development. Lots of dry air sinking south off the west coast of Africa. It may take this wave and the wave behind it to moisten the atmosphere back up enough for development in the Tropical Atlantic. That's not to say it may not have a short in 7-10 days in the western Caribbean.

Latest TPW loop:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

You can go back in the archive at that site and look at the TPW signatures prior to the development of named storms to get an idea what to look for.

I really need to remind myself to start looking at the MIMIC-TPW more often. It can be a very useful tool - particularly for the tropics, but I've seen friends back in Norman use it frequently to get an idea of moisture return from the Gulf for severe weather setups, as well.

[cycloneye]

Not yet at the Surface Map at 00z. That means the wave axis is still inland.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is it just me or having we been seeing an abnormal amount of waves/convection rolling off Africa during the last month? I just don't recall seeing this many convective waves rolling off of Africa in July. Perhaps it's just my imagination, I don't know.....

[Macrocane]

IMO the number of tropical waves has been normal this season, I think that 1 wave every 3 or 4 days it's average. This one looks like a healthy wave but I don't think it's going to develop, there is no model support yet and the dry air to it's north will inhibit development in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

It has been 12 hours since I made this thread as I was interested in this system because of the plenty of convection and some spin it had at that time.12 hors later,what I see is a wave that has not poofed like many others that normally after 12 hours have almost vanished the convection. Now let's see how this system behaves in the next few hours and if I wake up to this same presentation that has excibited or it poofs eventually.

[sjmballer]

I'm right with you on this one ...time will tell

[JonathanBelles]

I'm looking at this wave for more of a suicide wave to clear out all of the SAL/African Dust. There is just too much dust there for development right now

[HURAKAN]

Nothing in the TWO. Not surprised with a wave so far east, they're waiting before saying anything. I would do the same. My 24-hour waiting period hasn't expired!!

[KWT]

Convection has really decreased recently, I don't think development is really likely at all now but thats to be expected given the large amount of stable SAL air to the north and west of the system.

[cycloneye]

My impressions as I wake up this morning is, it has diminuished convection but I see some curvature in the clouds, so I wont declare it completly dead yet for some kind of development. But on the other hand, it continues to lack model support so that is a strike against it. I am starting to think this one will be out to sacrifice and then the one behind to have a better chance but I will hold on that for another 12 hours. After those 12 hours,if nothing important happens in terms of organizing,then I will give up completly and say next.

[Blown Away]

Deep convection has died off as this wave moves off the coast, but there is still a big envelope of moisture along with some slight cyclonic rotation. Also, this wave is a little farther north and may have a better chance of breaking away from the ITCZ if it develops. Hasn't gone completely poof yet!

[KWT]

THis sort of wave is the type that needs to be watched down the line IMO, either in the Caribbean or in the EPAC because it has a decent bubble of moisture as BA has mentioned and doesn't look too bad at all.