Convection in Yucatan

[KWT]

tolakram, its very tight, it all depends on how far west it can get, the further west it gets the better the conditions are...though there probably will remain some shear on the system as it moves towards water.

IMO does need watching.

[xcool22]

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 36.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.98 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 70.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT


Station 42001

[Weatherfreak000]

interesting tonight, when convection refires over the GOM we may see a TWO nod

[KWT]

Certainly could occur Weatherfreak000, I'm in fact a little surprised they didn't put a lemon on it now, even if it was a very low risk because it will be offland soon enough...

[Weatherfreak000]

yeah at least a 0% nod or something

[lrak]

The current IR gives a good look without the color.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

http://www.positive-focus.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/the-little-train-that-could.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Great Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Clearly, something to watch tomorrow. In the loop, it seems that shear isn't high.

[Weatherfreak000]

Great Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Clearly, something to watch tomorrow. In the loop, it seems that shear isn't high.

That was a very impressive sat loop. Spin was very evident to me, and it appears to be tightening right before landfall.


The environment in the BOC right now has to be about the best i've seen thus far. Colin, is that you?

[HURAKAN]

This loop is even better - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec5ir204

pretty impressive

[Weatherfreak000]

Are pressures falling in that region?

[tailgater]

Just getting back from work and the long loop on Vis shows that it's a MLC and there may be a rotation just to the west of the MLC, very ill defined at the moment. Over water now with very little convection but something to watch for sure as things have been blowing up to the west of there so far this year, and the rest of the basin is pretty dry.

[wxman57]

I see an MLC over the NW Yucatan as of 9pm CDT. It's easy to see now that the convection died. Something to keep an eye on, as wind shear in the Gulf is low. Not much model support for development, though.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

There's no question ... tomorrow could be interesting

[Weatherfreak000]

Spin appears to be waning somewhat?

[KWT]

MLC looks like its died right off in the last few hours along with the convection as well, still heading towards water in the next 6hrs which needs to be watched still.

[Cyclone1]

Little bit of convection in the Gulf lately. Is that related?

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Not much left, though the ULL appears to have dissipated. MIMIC-TPW shows spin moved rapidly westward last night, so not sure there's anything left to spark development.

[Sanibel]

Axis is in the BOC but convection is anemic.

[ROCK]

fell apart and poofed....with no model support it was doomed from the start...now we look to the east.....