NW Caribbean development Wednesday?

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro does bring this as an open wave to the Upper Texas/ SW Louisiana coast in 168 hours

[southerngale]

im having trouble ignoring it. is anyone ignoring this besides the hpc?

If you're interested, no reason to ignore it when you can talk about it here. However, certainly no reason to be concerned yet, either.

[gatorcane]

Model consensus seems to be gradually increasing the past 24 hours. Though its still far out there, if the consensus continues to increase, development is possible. I'd like to see the consensus converge under 180 hours then I will be fairly convinced. Of course it is the time of year to watch the Western Caribbean......

BTW, what is the difference between what is being discussed in this thread and:

"Pouch PGI46L -SE of Julia, west of invest 94L"

Seems like alot of redundant information reading through the two with most of the discussion around how/if a system may threaten the GOM/Florida.

[Ivanhater]

Model consensus seems to be gradually increasing the past 24 hours. Though its still far out there, if the consensus continues to increase, development is possible. I'd like to see the consensus converge under 180 hours then I will be fairly convinced. Of course it is the time of year to watch the Western Caribbean......

BTW, what is the difference between what is being discussed in this thread and:

"Pouch PGI46L -SE of Julia, west of invest 94L"

Seems like alot of redundant information reading through the two with most of the discussion around how/if a system may threaten the GOM/Florida.

Read the very first post on page one. It explains the difference.

[RachelAnna]

looking at the model run closer out to 144hr this thing is deepening right close to the coast....worst case scenario IMO.....its bombing out....

Worst case is right. Wow. And I was laughing at myself for buying extra water! How many continuous runs have shown a similar set up now?

[RachelAnna]

Btw, 1745 closeup shows nice vorticity developing with some cyclonic turning moving NNW near 10n/82w...this is exactly where CMC indicated we might see this take place...Given what I'm seeing presently the CMC might be on to something...Keep an eye on this Texas its got your name all over it...




http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

All I can hope is that since we are still 144 out that things will change... I mean, I don't want anyone to get a storm, but sometimes it is better to be looking at a storm 6 days out instead of three, ya know?! When do you think we will see an invest with this area?

[Ptarmigan]

Regardless of what the computer models say, something is going to develop in the Gulf and Caribbean, which typically happens at this time.

[Sambucol]

Has the CMC updated yet tonight? I'm curious as to whether it and others will still show a storm in the GOM next weekend.

[ROCK]

Has the CMC updated yet tonight? I'm curious as to whether it and others will still show a storm in the GOM next weekend.

doesnt up for another few hours......

NAM is seeing something down there at 84hr...just like the CMC was hinting at....

[Sambucol]

Was the NAM showing this in the last run?

[ROCK]

Was the NAM showing this in the last run?

no...but its the NAM....

[South Texas Storms]

im very interested for the 00z models tonight, especially the cmc to see if it continues its development of a system heading towards texas.

[ROCK]

SW Carib low pressures....

[ROCK]

0z NOGAPS just started also....nothing at 0hrs....

[ROCK]

90hrs..wave moving through the central carib....

[South Texas Storms]

rock is that the same wave the cmc develops?

[ROCK]

:uarrow:
rock is that the same wave the cmc develops?

yes...should be at the yucatan at 108+....have to see....GFS has never develop this area....its seening the other disturbance moving into the islands to the east....

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_114l.gif


GFS is not seeing it.....a lot of activity in the carib but nothing organizing per the CMC runs....

[South Texas Storms]

i wonder why the gfs isnt seeing it...does the euro show anything similar to the cmc and nogaps?

[ROCK]

i wonder why the gfs isnt seeing it...does the euro show anything similar to the cmc and nogaps?

EURO just shows the wave and that is it....