Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[chaser1]

I'll wager a friendly bet we have a developing cyclone late this weekend

Well, hope no one minds if one more jumps into this big "cash pool bet"....er..."dead crow bet", that is LOL. I'll take some action and wager 15 large black crows on a West Caribbean T.D. by Tuesday 0Z ( Monday eve. ). I do agree that any development will be slow. I do believe that whether this system or perhaps one to come down the pike during the next couple weeks, will amplify the upper ridge enough to push the westerlies a little more northward ( if such a system were to emerge from the N.W. Caribbean. Heck...just to make things a little more interesting, I'll go 3/1 ( now, thats 45 dead birds i'd be eating ), that a nice sloppy minimal hurricane emerges from the N.W. Caribbean by 10/26, and ends up grazing the Florida Keys while moving Northeastward.

Well, given the need for "Bear Watching" for some time......, i'm off to hibernate for a bit....

[CourierPR]

NHC 72 hour surface plot shows low pressure in SW Caribbean.

[CourierPR]

JB is predicting development in this area.

[dwsqos2]

The low gets shunted westward rather rapidly on the 0Z gfs. This isn't entirely different from the 12Z Euro and CMC.

Well, the 0Z Euro seems to have a bit more than previous runs.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

I just ran a HYSPLIT trajectory for a parcel at 15N 70W.

Lift looks good into the convection that is south of the Mona Passage; but, not much spin at this point.

Cell topping out at about 55K-ft with moderate rain-rate.

[GCANE]

Euro is forecasting a cut-off low breaking off in the north Plains mid next week and moving SE into Florida into the weekend.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

Most likely GFS is a day late and dollar-short with its forecast.

This is evidenced how it handled last week's forecast of the CONUS cut-off lows.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
239 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 08 2010 - 12Z TUE OCT 12 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES
FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 6...WITH A MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z
ECENS MEAN DAY 7 TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTY IN SYNOPTIC DETAILS
INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE. THE 00Z UKMET CLUSTERED WELL WITH
THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 6...WITH THE 06Z GFS TRENDING CLOSER TO THE
EUROPEAN CENTRE HANDLING OF THE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST. THE GLOBAL FORCING IS
STILL SUCH THAT BLOCKY...CLOSED VORTICES ARE LIKELY OVER THE
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO...WITH INDICATIONS THAT
ANOTHER UPPER LOW COULD BREAK OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE EAST LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE CALLED THIS MOST RECENT
MERIDIONAL EPISODE...SO FOR NOW...WILL RELY ON ITS CUE FOR THE
NEXT POSSIBLE ITERATION.


FINAL...

THE 12Z GFS IS STILL NOT QUITE IN STEP WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET
WITH BOTH THE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS THE WAVE CROSSING THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES DAYS 5 AND 6. IT TOOK THE GFS A LONG TIME TO
CAPTURE THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST...SO WILL ASSUME THAT
IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH THESE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL PERIODS.
MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.


CISCO

[GCANE]

A new 850mb vorticity center seems to be breaking off from TD17 and forming south of DR colocated with the convection.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... rod=vor850


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[Vortex]

00Z Ukmet continues more bullish...Typically somewhat conservative..

H120


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[Vortex]

00Z ECM also more bullish...good chance we get a spin-up over the next 3-5 days across the SW carribean.


H168


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[Vortex]

H240..hurricane near eastern cuba 10 days out...As is usual how this upper low manifests itself will determine the final outcome..Point to take from the ECM is it continues more bullish than prior runs..Most guidance on board...


H240


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

[wzrgirl1]

10 days out is a long time....def something to keep an eye on though. Had no idea until last year that October was that busy for us here in South Florida. At that time, I would have bet that it was August or September. Once we get through this month....should breath a little easier.

[Vortex]

12Z NAM also more bullish...


H84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

12Z GFS rolls in 10 min...

[Vortex]

12Z GFS organized low by H66 over the SW carribean....


H66

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H72 continues to organize...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[boca]

As long as we have those strong westerlies screaming at Florida were basically safe with anything down in the caribbean.

[gatorcane]

GFS 12Z drops the system in the medium range.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS doesn't do much in the longer range with the system....

[Blown Away]

As long as we have those strong westerlies screaming at Florida were basically safe with anything down in the caribbean.

Yep, in SFL during October if you walk outside and there is no humidity and below average temps, you know no hurricane is a coming from the Caribbean. It's going to take a while to change the current pattern over SFL and by then we will be approaching mid October. Starting to think we won't see anymore CONUS landfalls for 2010. How fortunate the CONUS was this year with all the activity in the basin.