Disturbed area north of Panama - (Is invest 99L)

[Vortex]

H312..where's rock regardless the gfs is back and forth in terms of handling the ridge along the east coast..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps

H72 starting to crank up....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

H120 heading N between Jamaica and Honduras


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

H144 Hurricane heading N over the NW carribean


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

Hmmmm, so if this trend continues then even the GOM could come into play. Going to be interesting to see where the models trend the next few days.

[Dean4Storms]

H144 Hurricane heading N over the NW carribean


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Looks to me that it is missing the trough in that run, hmmmm!

[LarryWx]

OK, folks. Time for a review of some W. Caribbean OCT climo, which will come in handy, assuming Richard forms next week, due to the big model uncertainties.

1) Hurricane hit dates from the west/south on FL from Tampa area south 10/1+ (1851-2009):

10/2, 10/5, 10/5, 10/6, 10/7, 10/9, 10/11, 10/11, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/17, 10/18, 10/18, 10/18, 10/19, 10/19, 10/20, 10/20, 10/20, 10/21, 10/23, 10/24, 10/25, 11/30

Note the bolded period of highest frequency for 10/1+ within a five day period by far being 10/17-21, which had a whopping TEN, double the highest frequency of any other 10/1+ five day period! So, the peak for 10/1+ for C/S FL hits from the west or south has clearly been 10/17-21.

The 12z gfs hit far S FL with Richard on 10/25, which is near the end of the active period and only four days after the end of the most active preriod. So, climo says this is a reasonable possibility.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2) For the period 1851-2009, I counted 64 TC’s that were first declared in the Caribbean west of 75W and that were in the Caribbean west of 75W at some point within 10/11-31 ET.

For those 64, here is the breakdown:

- 27 (42%) later hit the U.S. (17 of these 27 hit S FL or 27% of the 64; 6 of these 27 hit NC or 9% of the 64; 3 of these 27 hit both S FL and NC or 5% of the 64)
- 21 (33%) ended up missing the U.S. to the east or south
- 13 (20%) ended up dieing over or immediately adjacent to either MX or Central America
- 3 (5%) died over either the G.O.M. or Cuba

The various gfs runs have shown the first three scenarios, all of which are reasonable possibilities based on these stats. However, a plurality hit the U.S and that scenario has occurred about twice as often as dieing over/near MX or Central America. So, if I were a betting man at this early stage, I'd bet on a U.S. hit before I'd bet on a C.A./MX burial scenario. I'd even bet on a miss to the east or south of the U.S. before I'd bet on a MX/C.A. end scenario. Now, a couple have crossed the Yucatan and then gone on to hit the U.S. Those count only in the U.S. hit category.

[srainhoutx]

Perhap it's me, but climo just doesn't fit with the pattern we are seeing via guidance. Rex Block in Fall and a La Nina year?

[LarryWx]

Perhap it's me, but climo just doesn't fit with the pattern we are seeing via guidance. Rex Block in Fall and a La Nina year?

Of course, there is no one pattern associated with climo. Climo is based on 150+ years of different patterns. The point is that the models are all over the place at this early stage, showing all three of the most likely scenarios and jumping around from run to run. The stats give us the only real early guidance there is as far as the various scenario probabilities are concerned.

[Vortex]

This evening's satellite presentation over the SW carribean season just reminds us how primed and convectively charged the SW carribean is presently and is going to get next week. All the positive factors will be at play next week and I have little doubt with a near perfect recipe coming together tropically speaking that this will become the October Major we remember....I'll call it and I think this could be a cat 3, 4, or even a 5 and will have the potential to effect several countries including Central America/Yucatan/Caymans/Cuba/Jamaica and FL. I'll leave it at that for now but by later this weekend things should begin organizing......

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Should be code yellow or orange by tomorrow

Here we go, the October monster is being born . Latest 18z gfs is very Mitch-like.

Should become a major. I hope it stays far from South Florida. We don't need this after such a quiet season so far.

[LarryWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Should be code yellow or orange by tomorrow

Here we go, the October monster is being born . Latest 18z gfs is very Mitch-like.

Should become a major. I hope it stays far from South Florida. We don't need this after such a quiet season so far.

Well, the mid to late OCT W. Caribbean climo stats, although scarier for S FL than for just about any other location except maybe Cuba, still say 73% chance of no S FL hit.

Regardless, 27% is still high enough to respect when we're dealing with the W. Caribbean formations. 27% isn't tiny!

[gatorcane]

00z NAM

[SFLcane]

Ramsdis has a floater placed on this area...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[Sanibel]

No doubt the area is juiced. Could be something pulling out of Colombia.

[boca]

It would head right into Central America everything is moving WNW.

[SFLcane]

It would head right into Central America everything is moving WNW.

00z GFS has this feature once again moving into CA likely producing devastating floods down there.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/00zgfs.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just when I praise the GFS for being decent this year it has 8 different solutions in 3 days...Jeez..lol

Only one its missed is the East to PR Lenny job..

[Florida1118]

24hrs....



50hrs out...

[Florida1118]

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.