2011 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

euro now has 3 tropical cyclone developing. 90w develops into a strong typhoon and passing very close to okinawa and making landfall possibly in eastern china, another developing northwest of guam and intensifying to a possible typhoon while passing close to okinawa and another developing again in the philippine sea. the west pacific is gonna explode!

[Infdidoll]

Explode? I don't know about that. I always approach these model forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticism because if they are a week out in advance, there is lots of room for error. Heck, even if the typhoon is already formed, there is lots of room for error.

But hey, if it all plays out the way it's reading on the ECM models - well, those of us on Okinawa can thank God for the warm-up typhoon to remind us typhoon season didn't end after Songda so we can be ready for the big one that will roll through a few days later. I shouldn't laugh, but the misfortune of that happening is amusing, you have to admit.

Despite the cries of "It's going to hit Okinawa!" every week, we've had very few typhoons roll through here that are big enough to take note of. Songda was definitely one of those. The models are interesting today...but I'll believe it when I see it.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Explode? I don't know about that. I always approach these model forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticism because if they are a week out in advance, there is lots of room for error. Heck, even if the typhoon is already formed, there is lots of room for error.

But hey, if it all plays out the way it's reading on the ECM models - well, those of us on Okinawa can thank God for the warm-up typhoon to remind us typhoon season didn't end after Songda so we can be ready for the big one that will roll through a few days later. I shouldn't laugh, but the misfortune of that happening is amusing, you have to admit.

Despite the cries of "It's going to hit Okinawa!" every week, we've had very few typhoons roll through here that are big enough to take note of. Songda was definitely one of those. The models are interesting today...but I'll believe it when I see it.

I believe we're on the cusp of a serious uptick in activity. Whilst no one single model run should be taken as gospel it's the trends which should be noted, and the trend is there for multiple TCs to form over the next week or so.

LOL at cries of "It's going to hit Okinawa!" every week - yes some members need to be aware that the WPAC is very large and Okinawa is a small target. It's pointless to get excited every time a single run shows a TC or phantom TC passing with 1000km of the islands!!

[Infdidoll]

I'm agreeing on the trends and that we're about to get more activity. I don't know about two category 5 landfalls this season and 3 strong tropical cyclones in the same arena at once this week.

What I AM really wondering about is that the model is almost predicting a Fujiwhara situation. I do see two systems close on the latest model, and they seem to be marching over Okinawa in close order, but are the models equipped to accurately predict the reactions between two storms that close? Fujiwhara situations aren't fun to deal with if you might be dealing with their repercussions after watching the Parma/Melor situation a few years ago. I believe ECM that we will have at least one TC on a track out this way, but wondering if we could be dealing with two very independent systems or one larger storm that absorbs the other?

ECM was amazing, last year. Seemed like they were right on target with most of the storms we saw in 2010 so I believe their models could be accurate and we will see a few noteworthy systems from this wave. Conditions are great. Jury is still out on the track and number of storms, though. Yes, we are a pi$$ant island in the West Pac...LOL - and most people here actually seem to enjoy storms up to about a Category 3 where the coral reefs get nurtured by stirring up the substrate. The middle of the Pacific can swallow those storms equivalent to a Cat 4 or 5 though!

[Infdidoll]

Okay, now the situation just got really interesting and not good at all for us if it plays out. There are very few places where a Category 5 landfall on large areas of land are entirely plausible since the interaction with land really weakens the system...and the Ryukyus, being small islands not likely to impede this storm...well, that's possible. These are the storms that are fun to track...as long as they are staying out in the middle of the Pacific doing no harm to anyone. Something of that magnitude coming towards land is certain death and widespread destruction.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Okay, now the situation just got really interesting and not good at all for us if it plays out. There are very few places where a Category 5 landfall on large areas of land are entirely plausible since the interaction with land really weakens the system...and the Ryukyus, being small islands not likely to impede this storm...well, that's possible. These are the storms that are fun to track...as long as they are staying out in the middle of the Pacific doing no harm to anyone. Something of that magnitude coming towards land is certain death and widespread destruction.

It's an alarming run indeed! What most concerns me as a non resident of that area of the basin is the potential affects on S Korea if that run were to come off. S Korea is not used to strong landfalls and when they do occur it's ugly. Typhoon Maemi back in 2003 is a perfect example. Check out Geoff Mackley's really good account of that storm - http://www.emergency.co.nz/archive/maemi.html

Now don't get me wrong, if I lived on Okinawa and had a cat. 4+ heading my way I'd be very concerned, however the core infrastructure there is designed with these storms in mind. So whilst there might be a lot of superficial damage I don't think it would take long for the locals to pick up where they left off. The biggest killer from typhoons is inland fresh water flooding, something which isn't a problem in the Ryukus. Taiwan is another good example where fast moving cat. 4s have swept through the island with extreme winds but lower rainfall totals and it's only been a matter of days before everything's back to normal. Slow moving weaker storms on the other hand have wrought far more destruction, Morakot is a perfect example. The old mantra goes, "run from the water, hide from the wind."

I remember you saying your apartment was vulnerable to the elements? If that's the case it would probably be worth moving to a friend's house for duration of a real howler.

Now as I always say this is only 1 run showing a potential scenario 8 days out. I think the trend we need to watch is if 92W doesn't form or gets quickly swallowed up by 08W-to-be. If we just get the one dominant TC I think the track and forecasting environment will be much more "straightforward." Tense times ahead indeed!

[euro6208]

Okay, now the situation just got really interesting and not good at all for us if it plays out. There are very few places where a Category 5 landfall on large areas of land are entirely plausible since the interaction with land really weakens the system...and the Ryukyus, being small islands not likely to impede this storm...well, that's possible. These are the storms that are fun to track...as long as they are staying out in the middle of the Pacific doing no harm to anyone. Something of that magnitude coming towards land is certain death and widespread destruction.

It's an alarming run indeed! What most concerns me as a non resident of that area of the basin is the potential affects on S Korea if that run were to come off. S Korea is not used to strong landfalls and when they do occur it's ugly. Typhoon Maemi back in 2003 is a perfect example. Check out Geoff Mackley's really good account of that storm - http://www.emergency.co.nz/archive/maemi.html

Now don't get me wrong, if I lived on Okinawa and had a cat. 4+ heading my way I'd be very concerned, however the core infrastructure there is designed with these storms in mind. So whilst there might be a lot of superficial damage I don't think it would take long for the locals to pick up where they left off. The biggest killer from typhoons is inland fresh water flooding, something which isn't a problem in the Ryukus. Taiwan is another good example where fast moving cat. 4s have swept through the island with extreme winds but lower rainfall totals and it's only been a matter of days before everything's back to normal. Slow moving weaker storms on the other hand have wrought far more destruction, Morakot is a perfect example. The old mantra goes, "run from the water, hide from the wind."

I remember you saying your apartment was vulnerable to the elements? If that's the case it would probably be worth moving to a friend's house for duration of a real howler.

Now as I always say this is only 1 run showing a potential scenario 8 days out. I think the trend we need to watch is if 92W doesn't form or gets quickly swallowed up by 08W-to-be. If we just get the one dominant TC I think the track and forecasting environment will be much more "straightforward." Tense times ahead indeed!

here on guam, 99 % of houses are made out from concrete so we are very well prepared. i agree, the biggest killer is flooding. luckily we are far away from the ocean. that is why we should always be prepared, living in the westpac, we should expect the unexpected.

[Infdidoll]

It's an alarming run indeed! What most concerns me as a non resident of that area of the basin is the potential affects on S Korea if that run were to come off. S Korea is not used to strong landfalls and when they do occur it's ugly. Typhoon Maemi back in 2003 is a perfect example. Check out Geoff Mackley's really good account of that storm - http://www.emergency.co.nz/archive/maemi.html

Now don't get me wrong, if I lived on Okinawa and had a cat. 4+ heading my way I'd be very concerned, however the core infrastructure there is designed with these storms in mind. So whilst there might be a lot of superficial damage I don't think it would take long for the locals to pick up where they left off. The biggest killer from typhoons is inland fresh water flooding, something which isn't a problem in the Ryukus. Taiwan is another good example where fast moving cat. 4s have swept through the island with extreme winds but lower rainfall totals and it's only been a matter of days before everything's back to normal. Slow moving weaker storms on the other hand have wrought far more destruction, Morakot is a perfect example. The old mantra goes, "run from the water, hide from the wind."

I remember you saying your apartment was vulnerable to the elements? If that's the case it would probably be worth moving to a friend's house for duration of a real howler.

Now as I always say this is only 1 run showing a potential scenario 8 days out. I think the trend we need to watch is if 92W doesn't form or gets quickly swallowed up by 08W-to-be. If we just get the one dominant TC I think the track and forecasting environment will be much more "straightforward." Tense times ahead indeed!

Wow! Incredible footage there. Yes, if it stays together (and not much to indicate it won't, right now)...Really bad news for South Korea. The locals here were amazing after Songda. We took a drive around and saw every shop owner out cleaning up their property, removing branches, sweeping. Really great, industrious people here and they are all so generous. Can't say enough good things about the locals. Our area was one of the hardest hit. For some reason, the area where we live is like a wind tunnel. Quite a few cars missing windows, twisted metal, etc. We're literally right on the ocean and I think having no windbreaks and the wind coming right off the ocean and being that we're the only 8 story building, it doesn't help matters either. I'm not worried about the ocean. We've got some killer views, but we're a good 20 ft. up and the storm surge would likely batter the other side of the island, but the wind is a big concern.

Latest satellite loops looking pretty eerie on 08W. Wow! This season started off with a bang and mellowed out. Sounds like everyone is geared up for tracking this one!

[P.K.]

Sarika BT is out.

AXPQ20 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1103 SARIKA (1103)
PERIOD FROM JUN0818UTC TO JUN1106UTC
0818 14.3N 120.3E 1004HPA //KT 0900 14.7N 119.7E 1006HPA //KT
0906 15.3N 119.1E 1004HPA //KT 0912 16.3N 118.3E 1000HPA 35KT
0918 17.3N 117.9E 998HPA 40KT 1000 18.9N 117.6E 996HPA 40KT
1006 20.1N 117.1E 996HPA 40KT 1012 21.2N 117.0E 998HPA 35KT
1018 22.5N 116.9E 998HPA 35KT 1100 23.8N 116.9E 1000HPA 35KT
1106 24.9N 117.0E 1002HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT JUN0818UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT JUN0912UTC
FROM TS TO TD AT JUN1106UTC
DISSIPATION AT JUN1112UTC=

[wxman57]

Huh? Sarika? June 8th? Are you trying to confuse me?

[P.K.]

Not sure what you mean by that. This is the seasonal thread and the BTs are released during the season.

[cycloneye]

With the formation of Tokage,how is the season doing in terms of the average?

[Chacor]

We are one storm above seasonal average (6.0) as of today.

[euro6208]

latest forecast from euro shows 2 tropical cyclone formation with one formation south of japan and strengthening a bit and another developing east of luzon and moving into the south china sea. all of this after ma-on makes landfall in japan.

[StormingB81]

ECMWF picking up something around the 26th south of guam...

[euro6208]

yeah i saw that. a tropical cyclone forming in the vicinity of guam. the next name is one of my favorites, Nock-Ten meaning Bird.

[StormingB81]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 800!!!step

Still trying to devlope something.....we shall see...I think August, Sept, Oct going ot be wild for the WPAC...I could be wrong just a hunch but seeing how we are above avaerage right now I am curious to see what high part of the season will bring us..

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[Chacor]

The 1951-2008 long term average (JMA) numbers:
18 July: 6.48 storms
1 August: 8.64 storms
1 September: 14.28 storms
1 October: 19.10 storms
1 November: 22.90 storms

August sees an average of nearly 6 named storms, September nearly 5, and October nearly 4.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the ACE so far in the WPAC that includes the latest two cyclones? I want to add it to the ACE thread?

[StormingB81]

ECMWF still developing something and has it hitting Louzon on the 27th then developing another one right behind it..looks like we may stay busy..