2011 ACE:N.Atlantic: 123.812 / EPAC:121.808 / WPAC: 207.005

[cycloneye]

Update as of 1500z

Code: Select all

12L.KatiaAdv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 August 5 am AST 30 0
2 29 August 11 am AST 30 0
3 29 August 5 pm AST 30 0
4 29 August 11 pm AST 30 0
5 30 August 5 am AST 35 0.1225
6 30 August 11 am AST 40 0.1600
Total       0.2825

[edit] Best Track[edit] Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 0.2825
Total  34.295


[cycloneye]

Updated ACE for Katia and North Atlantic at 21z.

Code: Select all

12L.KatiaAdv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 August 5 am AST 30 0
2 29 August 11 am AST 30 0
3 29 August 5 pm AST 30 0
4 29 August 11 pm AST 30 0
5 30 August 5 am AST 35 0.1225
6 30 August 11 am AST 40 0.1600
7 30 August 5 pm AST 50 0.2500
Total       0.5325

[edit] Best Track[edit] Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 0.5325
Total  34.545


[cycloneye]

Updated ACE as of 15z.

Code: Select all

12L.KatiaAdv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 29 August 5 am AST 30 0
2 29 August 11 am AST 30 0
3 29 August 5 pm AST 30 0
4 29 August 11 pm AST 30 0
5 30 August 5 am AST 35 0.1225
6 30 August 11 am AST 40 0.1600
7 30 August 5 pm AST 50 0.2500
8 30 August 11 pm AST 50 0.2500
9 31 August 5 am AST 55 0.3025
10 31 August 11 am AST 55 0.3025
Total       1.3875

[edit] Best Track[edit] Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 1.3875
Total  35.4


[cycloneye]

Updated ACE for North Atlantic at 09z.

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 3.7350
Total  37.7475


[RL3AO]

Through 9z September 2nd

Atlantic

Code: Select all

Arlene     1.6275
Bret       2.945
Cindy      1.8425
Don        1.4975
Emily      1.9875
Franklin   0.405
Gert       1.6025
Harvey     0.91
Irene     20.3425
TD 10      0
Jose       0.5275
Katia      4.095 (active)
TD 13      0 (active)

TOTAL     38.1075
Avg. YTD: 36 (+5.9%)


East Pacific

Code: Select all

Adrian    11.86
Beatriz    2.9975
Calvin     2.43
Dora      14.6625
Euguene   14.9075
Fernanda   1.725
Greg       4.7375
TD8        0

TOTAL     53.32
Avg. YTD: 81 (-34.2%)


[cycloneye]

Update in North Atlantic at 21z.

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 4.9400
13L (Lee) Operational 0.1600
Total  39.1125


[cycloneye]

Update as of 09z.

Does anyone has the WPAC numbers?

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 5.7850
13L (Lee) Operational 0.5225
Total  40.32


[cycloneye]

Update at 21z.

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 6.5675
13L (Lee) Operational 1.0225
Total  41.6025


[Ptarmigan]

ACE/Storm as of September 3, 2011 2100Z
Atlantic
3.5/Storm

East Pacific
7.6/Storm

[cycloneye]

Update at 15z. Who wants to post the WPAC ACE numbers?

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 8.0100
13L (Lee) Operational 1.5450
Total  43.5675


[cycloneye]

Update at 21z.

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 8.8200
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
Total  44.5375


[cycloneye]

Update at 15z.

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 11.2550
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
Total  46.9725


[cycloneye]

Update at 03z. North Atlantic is going to surpass the EPAC tommorow.

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 13.5775
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
Total  49.295


[cycloneye]

Update at 15z.

Code: Select all

Best Track[edit] Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 15.8900
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
Total  51.6075


[cycloneye]

Update at 03z.

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 17.5100
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
Total  53.2275


[dexterlabio]

WPAC represent!

May 2011
01W (25 ACE = 0.0)
02W (30 ACE = 0.0)
Aere (50 ACE = 2.8125)
Songda (140 ACE = 24.4775)
June 2011
Sarika (35 ACE = 0.6125)
Haima (40 ACE = 2.4025)
Meari (60 ACE = 5.6625)
July 2011
Ma-on (115 ACE=30.1375)
Tokage (25 ACE= 0.0)
Nock-ten (65 ACE=6.6375)
Muifa (140 ACE=48.66)
August 2011
Merbok (80 ACE= 8.8375)
13W (30 ACE = 0.0)
Nanmadol (135 ACE= 25.71)
Talas (55 ACE = 9.96)
September 2011
Noru (45 ACE= 1.705)
Kulap (35 ACE = 0.1225 [active]

TOTAL = 167.7375

[dwsqos2]

ACE is really reflecting how relatively unimpressive this season is. Yes we are above the to-date climatological mean but not by huge margins. I don't like the comparisons to 2005 given that during that season the Atlantic had managed to generate 63 units of ACE by the end of July.

The Gray-Klotzbach seasonal ACE forecast in the August update was 160 units. With a relatively cool east Atlantic due to an occasionally strong Azores High, it seems a bit of stretch. We probably won't have the powerful long-lived storms characteristic of 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, or 2010.

[cycloneye]

Update at 15z of Katia and Maria.

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 18.7125
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
14L (Maria) Operational 0.2025
Total  54.6325


[KWT]

ACE is really reflecting how relatively unimpressive this season is. Yes we are above the to-date climatological mean but not by huge margins. I don't like the comparisons to 2005 given that during that season the Atlantic had managed to generate 63 units of ACE by the end of July.

The Gray-Klotzbach seasonal ACE forecast in the August update was 160 units. With a relatively cool east Atlantic due to an occasionally strong Azores High, it seems a bit of stretch. We probably won't have the powerful long-lived storms characteristic of 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, or 2010.

Very similar to 2007 actually.

However I would never call it unimpressive, we've had 2 majors and we are ONE day behind 2005...so the comprasion is FAIR in terms of numbers of storms. We are WAY ahead of average mate in terms of NS, and it doesn't matter what you say.

ACE will struggle given the poor conditions in the MDR from the looks of things, probably enough out there though to get to 100 I'd have thought.

[cycloneye]

Update at 21z

Code: Select all

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 19.2025
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
14L (Maria) Operational 0.405
15L (Nate) Operational 0.1600
Total  55.485