Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

No mention yet by NHC on TWO's,but that is expected as this wont develop by 48 hours.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N42W 6N40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
ITCZ...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.
A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SPANS THE AREA OF THE WAVE AND THE
PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[Aric Dunn]

the 00z euro last night is quite interesting..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

..................

It will become an invest once convection increases and maintains for at least 12 to 24hrs

[Blown Away]

the 00z euro last night is quite interesting..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
..................
It will become an invest once convection increases and maintains for at least 12 to 24hrs

At least it's fantasy for now, but what is interesting is between hour 216-240 the system moves west from the NW Bahamas to the GOM. That tells me a strong ridge is building in!!

[jhpigott]

The 0z Euro

That looks a lot like Katrina's track across Florida. Northern Bahamas SW thru S. Florida. I would take that track if it was a TS

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS also shows the ridge at 240 hours, just like the ECMWF. But still out there and both these models can definitely change over the coming days as we get closer:

['CaneFreak]

Taking a look at the vorticity associated with this wave, it looks like it is starting to develop a "Flying-V" shape to it...this is the first step to success for the development of a tropical wave...

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/850vort.gif

[floridasun78]

i think we need wait and see but yes we near peak of season twc dont think we need to worry guy say shear is high in tropical now he guy came from nhc in miami to work at twc

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest CIMSS shear analysis shows an anticyclone just to the N of the pouch with lowering shear trends just in front of the wave. I would be surprised if the NHC does not mention this feature in the next TWO as it seems a real player for cyclogenesis.

[flwxwatcher]

J.B on twiiter is bullish on the wave.

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Tropical wave in central atlantic near PR sat, Bahamas after. Potential threat Fla, then perhaps gulf after. It has the look of trouble
1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[dixiebreeze]

Certainly looks like a development threat to me. Quite a circulation developing now on MIMIC imagery. Could be a southeast U.S. threat late next week. Should be an invest today.

I have a granddaughter on a sailing trip in the US/British Virgin Islands until Monday with the NJROTC. Do you think this wave will be a threat before they leave Monday? Thanks!

[dixiebreeze]

Anyone else also welcome to answer question. Thanks!

[caneseddy]

The 0z Euro

That looks a lot like Katrina's track across Florida. Northern Bahamas SW thru S. Florida. I would take that track if it was a TS

There goes my birthday weekend

[BigB0882]

Very Katrina like! I wonder where it would head from there, continue West or start heading to the NGOM? Let's see if it even develops but could be a fun one to watch.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah it has good chance of developing. as it heads farther west the atmosphere moistens up and become more favorable for deep convection. after 45 west we should see some deeper convection. and since there is already good vorticity and decent convection would allow a surface circ to develop pretty quickly..

[Ivanhater]

Well here we go....I stayed up later than usual last night to catch the 00z model suite and it was clear the models started latching on to the building ridge turning this thing back west like Ron and I were speculating on yesterday. I did not stay up late enough to catch the Euro though

[cycloneye]

The pouch is a very wet one.

[plasticup]

the 00z euro last night is quite interesting..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Oh, yikes. That southern bend over Florida into the Gulf is eerily familiar. They need rain, but not like that...

[PTrackerLA]

Don't like the look of that seemingly WSW movement into south Florida. Will be interesting to see this afternoon's run.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground made a discussion about this wave/pouch PO7L.

An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.

Jeff Masters