2012 TCR's

[Macrocane]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sandy actually is upgraded to cat 3, it was in an intensification phase and looked really good just before landfall in Cuba. By the way, Wikipedia already has it as a major hurricane.

[Hurricanehink]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sandy actually is upgraded to cat 3, it was in an intensification phase and looked really good just before landfall in Cuba. By the way, Wikipedia already has it as a major hurricane.

That was based off the image NHC released a few days ago that said it was a MH, but subsequently changed.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sandy actually is upgraded to cat 3, it was in an intensification phase and looked really good just before landfall in Cuba. By the way, Wikipedia already has it as a major hurricane.

That was based off the image NHC released a few days ago that said it was a MH, but subsequently changed.

I fixed that, since I haven't seen proof that is publicly available right now that shows Sandy as a Cat 3. Also the intensity may be higher than 100 kt depending on data from Cuba in the TCR.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Sandy Post-Season Report

It has 157 pages and was upgraded to cat 3 at 100kts before Cuba landfall. Also it was officially a 70kt post-tropical when it made landfall in New Jersey.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Also notice it was briefly a Cat 2 storm on approach. 157 pages, INCREDIBLE!

[cycloneye]

Between pages 21-23 you can read their reasoning for leaving it as post-tropical in the New Jersey landfall and what will they implement starting in 2015.

[CrazyC83]

Between pages 21-23 you can read their reasoning for leaving it as post-tropical in the New Jersey landfall and what will they implement starting in 2015.

I've seen those reports before, especially if you followed the AMS conference in January. I see no reason to dispute that it was extratropical at landfall, it seems that is the best classification. I'd expect more data to come in later and it to be updated several times.

I wonder if for a while at least, at least on October 26-27 and perhaps all the way to just before landfall, subtropical is a better classification?

[Hurricane Jed]

A fascinating read. Found the part about the 3 unacceptable scenarios for warnings and what they plan to implement to be very interesting.

[CrazyC83]

A fascinating read. Found the part about the 3 unacceptable scenarios for warnings and what they plan to implement to be very interesting.

Discussions began on October 25 about how to treat it. In retrospect, hurricane warnings probably would have been acceptable, but models had it becoming extratropical as far out as 36 hours before landfall (in reality, it did 2 1/2 hours before landfall).

Scenario 1 would have been entirely unacceptable for any amount of time. Most likely, the public would have let their guard down, and then get shocked afterward. That is a recipe for disaster.

Scenario 2 would be OK for a few hours (i.e. in what really happened), but to fake it for more than one set of advisories would mean the NHC would be clearly off their game from a technical perspective. Since models were unclear, again, that creates major problems.

Scenario 3 is what I would have done to best warn people (the words "Hurricane Warning" send fear into people the most), but at the same time, it does create problems with systems. There was no precedence for such, and it was unclear how systems would react with advisories for an extended period under the header Post-Tropical Cyclone, while carrying tropical warnings.

[cycloneye]

Here is JB's take.


@BigJoeBastardi

What a morning.First Olympics get rid of wrestling now I find out the hurricane hit I forecasted from so far out wasnt a hurricane #bust?

[CrazyC83]

Here is JB's take.


@BigJoeBastardi

What a morning.First Olympics get rid of wrestling now I find out the hurricane hit I forecasted from so far out wasnt a hurricane #bust?

It was never classified as a hurricane at landfall, and there was no indication it would be.

[Ptarmigan]

I figured Sandy was a Category 3 hurricane at is peak.

[Hurricaneman]

Here is JB's take.


@BigJoeBastardi

What a morning.First Olympics get rid of wrestling now I find out the hurricane hit I forecasted from so far out wasnt a hurricane #bust?

The NHC is right on this one, and read some of the other tweets by Joe Bastardi saying this was warm core, he would say anything to get his varification on Sandy and he is completely in the wrong for blasting the NHC on Sandy and someone needs to tell Joe that yes indeed a tropical system can become extratropical within 6 hrs if the waters are cold enough which clearly happened here

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion about the Hurricane Sandy Post-Season report.


The National Hurricane Center released their final analysis of Hurricane Sandy this week. At 157 pages and 14 Mb, it's by far the largest tropical cyclone report NHC has ever released (previous record: 55 pages from Hurricane Ike of 2008.) NHC upgraded Sandy to a Category 3 hurricane in post-analysis. Data from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Sandy had 115 mph sustained winds at landfall in Cuba, making Sandy the second major hurricane of the 2012 season (Michael was the other.) NHC's report reaffirmed that Sandy was not a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey, having transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone when it was 2.5 hours and 50 miles away from landfall. Sandy officially made landfall in New Jersey as a post-tropical cyclone with sustained 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 945 mb. However, Sandy did bring hurricane force sustained winds to the coast before transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. Great Gull Island, New York, between Long Island and Fishers Island, measured a 1-min mean wind of 75 mph at an elevation of 18 m (59') at 4:35 pm EDT on 29 October, about 25 minutes before Sandy lost its status as a hurricane. NHC noted: This observation suggests that sustained hurricane-force winds likely occurred onshore over a limited area while Sandy was still a hurricane.


Sandy was responsible for 72 direct deaths in the U.S., the second highest toll from a U.S. hurricane since Hurricane Agnes of 1972 (Hurricane Katrina of 2005 was the highest, with at least 1500 direct deaths.) Sandy's storm surge was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths--41 of the 72 fatalities (57%). Falling trees during the storm killed twenty people, a rather high number that again highlights that hazard in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, even in locations experiencing winds of less than hurricane force. At least 87 deaths, an even greater number than for direct deaths, were indirectly associated with Sandy or its remnants in the United States. About 50 of these deaths were the result of extended power outages during cold weather, which led to deaths from hypothermia, falls in the dark by senior citizens, or carbon monoxide poisoning from improperly placed generators or cooking devices.

Sandy by the numbers: some statistics from NHC's final report on Sandy:

Death toll: 147 (72 in the U.S., 54 in Haiti, 11 in Cuba)

U.S. Damage: $50 billion, second costliest hurricane of all-time

Cuban Damage: $2 billion, fourth costliest hurricane of all-time

Haitian Damage: $0.75 billion, costliest hurricane of all-time

Homes damages/destroyed: 945,000 (650,000 in U.S.)

Power outages: 8.5 million U.S. customers, 2nd most for a natural disaster behind the 1993 blizzard (10 million)

Maximum sustained winds measured: 93 mph at Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba

Maximum U.S. sustained winds measured: 75 mph at Great Gull Island, New York

Peak U.S. wind gust: 95 mph at Eaton's Neck, Long Island, NY (24 m elevation)

Maximum U.S. storm surge: 12.65', King's Point, NY, west end of Long Island Sound

Maximum U.S. Storm Tide (measured above MLLW): 14.58', Bergen Point, NJ

Maximum Storm Tide at The Battery in New York City: 14.06'. This is 4.36 ft higher than the previous record set in December 1992, and 4.55 ft higher than in Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

Maximum significant wave height: 33.1' at the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC (2nd highest: 32.5' at the Entrance to New York Harbor)

Maximum rainfall: 28.09", Mill Bank, Jamaica

Maximum U.S. rainfall: 12.83", Bellevue, MD

Maximum snowfall: 36", Richwood, WV and Wolf Laurel Mountain, NC

Minimum pressure: 945.5 mb, Atlantic City, NJ at 7:24 pm EST, October 29, 2012. This is the lowest pressure measured in the U.S., at any location north of Cape Hatteras, NC (previous record: 946 mb in the 1938 hurricane on Long Island, NY)

Destructive potential of storm surge: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, highest of any hurricane observed since 1969. Previous record: 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003.

Maximum diameter of tropical storm-force winds: 1000 miles, highest for any Atlantic tropical cyclone on record, going back to 1988.

Diameter of ocean with 12' seas at landfall: 1500 miles

Questions on NHC's handling of warnings for Sandy
In the Sandy report, NHC documents that their forecasts of Sandy's track, intensity, and storm surge were all excellent, largely beating the average error margin for forecasts for tropical cyclones made during the previous five years. However, NHC has been criticized for electing not to issue hurricane warnings in advance of Hurricane Sandy for the U.S. Sandy was expected to transition to a non-tropical system before landfall, and NHC opted days in advance to issue high wind warnings and not hurricane warnings for the U.S. It is quite possible that NHC's decision not to put up hurricane warnings cost lives, since the public pays far more attention to hurricane warnings than any other type of wind warning (except tornado warnings.) In the Sandy report, NHC argues that "Intentionally misrepresenting Sandy as a hurricane would have severely damaged the credibility of the NWS and undermined its ability to serve the public for years to come." Another option to properly call Sandy post-tropical but put up hurricane warnings for the coast was also considered, but "a procedure for disseminating post-tropical advisories with tropical warnings had never been developed, tested, or publicized, and the NWS feared that hurriedly crafting and implementing untested procedures could easily break automated vendor software and disrupt the flow of information to users at a critical moment." The report acknowledges that due to the unique situation posed by Hurricane Sandy, a change to the hurricane warning definition is needed. They propose: The hurricane warning definition would be broadened to apply to systems after their tropical cyclone stage has ended, thus allowing hurricane or tropical storm watches and warnings to remain in effect for post-tropical cyclones. In addition, the NWS would ensure the continuity of service in any situation by allowing the NHC to issue advisories through the post-tropical cyclone stage as long as the system poses a significant threat to life and property. A second proposal: "set a target date of 2015 for NOAA to implement explicit storm surge watches and warnings, a goal NOAA has been working toward for several years. Multiple studies have shown significant confusion on the part of the public regarding their storm surge risk, and highlighted the need for improved communication of this hazard. With the implementation of a storm surge warning, the NWS will warn explicitly for the phenomenon that presents the greatest weather-related threat for a massive loss of life in a single day." Both of these changes are ones I hope get adopted as soon as practical, as the warning information given to the public during Sandy could have been much better, potentially saving lives and property.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2349

[brunota2003]

"They propose: The hurricane warning definition would be broadened to apply to systems after their tropical cyclone stage has ended, thus allowing hurricane or tropical storm watches and warnings to remain in effect for post-tropical cyclones."

If it isn't a hurricane, how can you issue a hurricane warning for it? This could cause more issues than not later on down the road for the NHC/NWS.

I also do not understand why tropical storm or hurricane warnings are only issued for the immediate coastline. Why are there inland TS warnings and regular TS warnings? Are they not the same thing, caused by the same storm?

[Hurricane Jed]

Well, the thing is Sandy was a very unique case. You have to understand since 1851 weather forecasters haven't quite had a unique situation like this where you have a big ol hurricane that is going to produce life threatening surge and such that could go post-tropical. Usually by the time it goes post-tropical it has done so well in advance of landfall. This wasn't the case with Sandy. I don't see future problems with this because situations like Sandy aren't likely to happen all that often where you have the largest hurricane on record just sitting off the New Jersey coastline.

[CrazyC83]

Well, the thing is Sandy was a very unique case. You have to understand since 1851 weather forecasters haven't quite had a unique situation like this where you have a big ol hurricane that is going to produce life threatening surge and such that could go post-tropical. Usually by the time it goes post-tropical it has done so well in advance of landfall. This wasn't the case with Sandy. I don't see future problems with this because situations like Sandy aren't likely to happen all that often where you have the largest hurricane on record just sitting off the New Jersey coastline.

The last storm that could be compared was Hazel in 1954 in terms of effects and structure. That was before satellites and with Recon in its early days. There was nothing like the current requirements today. (As it was, that storm did not behave as forecasted either - models would have helped a ton.)

[Hurricane Jed]

Hazel was forecast to go out to sea if I recall correctly but another system blocked it from doing so. Thing is Hazel was still a hurricane when it made landfall only after it made landfall did it transform into that monster. Thing is even with models, Sandy still killed more than Hazel even if quite a few of the deaths were indirect.